Steny Hoyer says the House will pass this bill. Well, not unless almost everyone in the progressive caucus goes back on their word.

Call progressive members of Congress now and ask them if they intend to deliver on their promise to vote against this bill.

Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman are running around saying that they’ll kill any bill that has a public option. Quite predictably. And everyone in the media (and on the Hill) are kowtowing to them, saying that this means that it will have to go. Their calculus is that progressives in the House will want health care passed so badly that they’ll eventually cave and vote for a bill that doesn’t have one.

Now, maybe this is true. But as someone who counts votes like other people count sheep, I’m not getting it. Someone is going to have to explain the math.