To understand how we got to the point where the Supreme Court could potentially strike down the entire Affordable Care Act because of the individual mandate, it is important to identify the string of stupid mistakes Democrats made that got us to this point. By my current count, Democrats had at least eight big chances [...]

If Conservatives get their way and the Supreme Court strikes down the individual mandate to buy health insurance, it would be a real victory for them; but in the end, the last laugh may be with actual progressives. While in this case an individual mandate was used to expand health coverage, similar individual mandates are [...]

With the Supreme Court oral arguments on the Affordable Care Act now over, my final impression is that the government’s case for the individual mandate was deeply troubling.  It just wasn’t straight forward. The government could have argued that the mandate and associated penalty functioned as a tax that is permissible under Congress’ broad taxing [...]

I’ve been discussing arguments about the role of the individual mandate, how its possible absence might affect participation in the individual insurance market, and whether it is needed to prevent an insurance death spiral.  A related point is that the individual mandate will actually have almost no impact on what a majority of people using [...]

It is basically the position of the Obama administration that the group health insurance market currently “works.” Administration officials have repeatedly stated things to that effect, and this is why the Affordable Care Act doesn’t change much about the group market. This creates a logical problem for the administration when it tries to argue that [...]

With the Supreme Court arguing the legality of the Affordable Care Act, it is a good time to remember that almost nobody disputes that single payer, such as Medicare for All, would be undoubtedly constitutional. Even Michael Carvin, one of the lead lawyers arguing (for the non-state private opponents) that the individual mandate is unconstitutional [...]

I think nothing better illustrates how poorly the oral arguments went for the Obama administration today than this exchange where Solicitor General Donald Verrilli Jr. tried to claim the individual mandate to buy insurance is not actually a government “purchase mandate.” From the transcripts: JUSTICE SCALIA: General Verrilli, you -you could say that about buying [...]

With the Supreme Court hearing argument on the constitutionality of the individual mandate, some of its defenders are claiming it must exist to stop the so called “death spiral” in health insurance.  In reality only the premium subsidies, not the mandate per se, can actually stop such a theoretical event. The idea behind the death [...]

The Urban Institute is out with a new policy brief claiming the individual mandate will only affect 2-5% of the population, and it has managed to get some media traction. The problem is that the whole brief has a huge logical problem by looking at only a tiny window of time. From Urban Institute: What [...]

Pew Research has put together this really nice piece summarizing all the recent polling on the Affordable Care Act compared to polling done right after it was passed in March of 2010. Basically a few polls show it getting slightly more popular since it was signed into the law and a few polls have it [...]