The Congressional Budget Office’s original projections about the Affordable Care Act back in 2010 have ended up being very close to the actual result so far, according to a new article from the agency.
Back in 2010 the CBO concluded the coverage expansion provision in the law would cost the federal government $759 billion during fiscal years 2014 through 2019. Based on some real data they now estimate the cost will only be $701 billion and a big part of the reason that number is slightly lower is due to unforeseeable issues. For example the CBO couldn’t have predicted the administration was going to botch the rollout, reducing enrollment this year.
At least initially it appears the law is functioning fairly close to how the CBO first projected it would.
After all predicting the future is hard and CBO scores should only be seen as reasonable guesses not hard numbers. Them being off by 10-20 percent should be expected depending on the circumstances.