The Obama administration says if healthcare.gov works 80% of the time it will be a success

The Obama administration is hoping that they can get Healthcare.gov working so 80 percent of the people trying to get new exchange coverage online will be able to do so successfully. From the Washington Post:

The Obama administration will consider the new federal insurance marketplace a success if 80 percent of users can buy health-care plans online, according to government and industry officials familiar with the project. [...]

According to a government official familiar with the new target, the 20 percent who are unlikely to be able to enroll online are expected to fall into three groups: people whose family circumstances are so complicated that the Web site cannot determine their eligibility for subsidies to help pay for health plans; people uncomfortable buying insurance on a computer; and people who encounter technical problems on the Web site.

This is a way too generous definition of success. If an online vendor had only an 80 percent success rate they would likely go out of business.

We really don’t know how many people will eventually try to buy insurance on Healthcare.gov this year but it could easily be between 5-10 million. If it was only working for 80 percent that means over a million people won’t be able to get insurance online.

If this is the target administration officials are merely hoping to reach by the beginning of the December that is a not a good sign.