Senator Mark Begich (D-AK) is one of two Senate Democrats that openly oppose military intervention in Syria.

Thanks to everyone for their help over the weekend in putting together a preliminary whip list.

Below is a chart of the results. It is by no means definitive. We are still searching for public statements.

The Senate is basically a lost cause — the only Democrats I could find who openly oppose action in Syria are Mark Begich (D-AK) and Joe Manchin (D-WV), and there is more than enough Republican support to get to 60 votes. The battle is going to be in the House.

In deciding whether to assign someone to a “committed vote” or “leaning,” I looked for firm statements of opposition before calling someone “committed.” If they left any wiggle room I assigned them to “leaning.”

There are a few Republicans who are so far out there already on Syria that appear to be firmly in support of intervention. However, the majority of the Republicans are leaning nay — even Peter King (R-NY) reeled it in on Fox News yesterday and said if the vote happened today he’d be a “no.” And I couldn’t find any Republicans that were leaning yea at this point.

Perhaps most interestingly, Rep. Scott Rigell (R-VA) is demanding that Obama, like David Cameron, must appear before Congress and debate the issue:

“This beautiful Capitol is empty largely and yet a vigorous debate took place in the parliament in Britain. … I find it ironic given the history of our two countries that here we have the president operating — and I say this understanding the seriousness of it — it is not the King’s army. He must come before Congress,” Rigell said on MSNBC.

“We can be here in Washington DC in 24 hours. We could have, say, perhaps 12 hours to debate and deliberate and then vote an up or down vote, both houses, a concurrent resolution,” he added.

Syria War Vote Count Sunday, Sept. 2 2013

Democrats Republicans Total
Firm Nay 12 18 30
Firm Yea 16 6 22
Leaning Nay 18 29 47
Leaning Yea 15 4 19

The White House has an uphill battle when it comes to whipping votes. According to Politico, they are going to fall back on the tried-and-true “do it for Israel.”

Most Democratic opposition is of the Chris Van Hollen/Jim Himes variety — they want the language changed to prevent “boots on the ground.”   According to sources, this will apparently be done in the Senate and will be the fig leaf “deal” the White House makes to win votes.  So these votes really shouldn’t be counted as serious “opposition.”  Nobody expects Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) to vote “nay” when Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) drops the pimp hand.

As before, please let us know in the comments when you find documentation of where members of Congress stand, along with links.

Update 3:09 PM EST:

  • Firm Yea: Hoyer (D-MD), Gwen Moore (D-WI)
  • Lean Nay: Aderholt (R-AL), Mike Quigley (D-IL), David Cicilline (D-RI), Mike Thompson (D-CA), Maxine Waters (D-CA)
  • Lean Yea: Elijah Cummings (D-MD), Gerry Connolly (D-MD), Bill Foster (D-IL),  Jim Langevin (D-RI), Brad Schneider (D-IL)

Update 5:01 PM:

  • Firm Nay: David McKinley (R-WV), Jeff Miller (R-FL)
  • Firm Yea: Martha Roby (R-AL), Krysten Sinema (D-AZ), Ed Perlmutter (D-CO)
  • Lean Nay: Chellie Pingree (D-ME), Spencer Bachus (R-AL), Mo Brooks (R-N), Don Young (R-AK), Tim Griffin (R-AR), Joe Courtney (D-CT), John Carney (D-DE), Steve Southerland (R-FL)
  • Lean Yea: Terri Sewell (D-AL),  Mike Coffman (R-CO), Jared Polis (D-CO)

Update 7:12 PM:

  • Firm Nay: Ted Yoho (R-FL), Frederica Wilson (D-FL), Bill Posey (D-FL), Kathy Castor (D-FL), C.W. Bill Young (R-FL), Lois Frankel (D-FL)
  • Firm Yea: Corrine Brown (D-FL), Ted Deutch (D-FL)
  • Lean Nay: Tom Rooney (R-FL)Vern Buchanan (R-FL), Trey Radel (R-FL), Ileana Ross-Leithin (R-FL), Jack Kingston (R-GA)
  • Lean Yea: Michael Grim (R-NY), Patrick Murphy (D-FL)

Update 8:40 PM:

  • Firm Nay: Sam Farr (D-CA), Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE), Tim Huelskamp (R-KS), Scott Perry (R-PA)
  • Firm Yea:  Joaquin Castro (D-TX), Mike Coffman (R-CO), Steve Israel (D-NY), Juan Vargas (D-CA)
  • Lean Nay: Barbara Lee (D-CA), Bennie Thompson (D-MS), Ted Poe (R-TX), Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), Rob Woodall (R-GA)
  • Lean Yea: Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D-FL), Kurt Schrader (D-OR), Duncan Hunter (R-CA)

 

A current draft of the legislation proposed by the President is at PopVox, where voting is running 96%-4% against.

Democrat Firm Nay
Charles Rangel NY USA Today: “[W]e should not get drawn into another proxy war that would entangle us with Hezbollah, Iran and Russia.” CNN also says he opposes.
Jim McDermott WA WSJ: “Mr. McDermott said the vote by the U.K. Parliament against military action had cemented his opposition to U.S. involvement.”
Betty McCollum MN CBS: “Democrats Betty McCollum and Rick Nolan are joining Republican Michele Bachmann to oppose any military action. “
Rick Nolan MN CBS: “Democrats Betty McCollum and Rick Nolan are joining Republican Michele Bachmann to oppose any military action. “
Alan Grayson FL HuffPost: “Nobody wants this except the military-industrial complex”
Brian Higgins NY Buffalo News: “I will not support any American military intervention in Syria. The fact is, Americans are sick of foreign war.”
Carol Shea-Porter NH Concord Monitor: “Alone among her colleagues in New Hampshire’s congressional delegation, U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, a Democrat, took a firm stance yesterday against U.S. military intervention in Syria.”
Republican Firm Nay
Michelle Bachmann MN CBS: “Democrats Betty McCollum and Rick Nolan are joining Republican Michele Bachmann to oppose any military action.”
Chris Gibson NY Facebook: “As a 29-year veteran of the United States military with multiple combat tours, it is my judgment that military intervention would make it worse and make us responsible for that conflict. Therefore, I urge a “no” vote on authorization to use military force.”
Thomas Massie KY Port Clinton News Herald: “I am vehemently opposed to U.S. military aggression against Syria.”
Kerry Bentivolio MI Observer & Eccentric: Prior to President Obama’s announcement Saturday that he will seek approval from Congress to strike Syria, Rep. Kerry Bentivolio said he was opposed to getting the military involved – even if it meant saying no to the president.
Justin Amash  MI  Lansing State Journal: Obama “hasn’t come close to justifying war in Syria, and I know few members of Congress who support an attack on Syria based on the current reasoning of the administration.”
Candice Miller MI House website: “I opposed American involvement in Libya because I did not believe vital U.S. interests were threatened and I oppose any involvement in Syria for the same reason.”
Tom Marino  PA Sun Gazette: “Given the information at hand, I am absolutely opposed to any intervention in Syria at this time. There are too many bad guys on both sides of the conflict and any U.S. involvement would be at odds with our interests in the region,” Marino said. “We have far greater priorities at home and in other nations to embroil our resources or troops in the middle of a conflict with no end in sight.”
Rick Nugent  FL  Tampa Bay Times: “Nugent [drew] applause during a town hall meeting by saying he is “absolutely, unequivocally opposed” to military intervention in the war-torn country.”
Kevin Yoder KS Buzzfeed:  “I don’t want to intervene at all,” said Kansas Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder said to loud applause at a town hall at a local high school.
Lynn Jenkins KS Topeka Courier-Journal: “I am unconvinced military action against Syria is in our nation’s best interest and I plan to oppose authorization.”
Democrat Firm Yea
Nancy Pelosi CA Real Clear Politics: “Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic leader, supports the administration — while acknowledging the political pitfalls.”
Keith Ellison MN CBS: “Democrat Keith Ellison says he supports a limited, tactical military response to chemical warfare.”
Ami Bera CA KCRA: “Rep. Ami Bera, D-Elk Grove, released a statement saying there was “overwhelming evidence” that Syria’s military used chemical weapons on civilians, and adding, “A failure to respond will only encourage Assad to increase the use of chemical and biological weapons and sets a dangerous precedent.”
Doris Matsui CA KCRA: “The evidence is apparent: The Syrian government has used chemical weapons against its own people in blatant and horrific violation of international law, human rights, and moral decency.”
Nick Rahall WV Metro News: “Third District Congressman Nick Rahall (D-WV) says he thinks a limited U.S. military strike on Syria is appropriate.”
Bill Pascrell NJ  Buzzfeed:  Pascrell [] supports a U.S. military response to Syria.
Eliot Engel NY Politico: “New York Rep. Eliot Engel said he “was convinced” by the evidence presented during Thursday’s White House briefing call that the United States should take military action in Syria.
Republican Firm Yea
Steve Chabot OH Port Clinton News Herald: “Chabot said the U.S. had a ‘moral imperative’ to remove Assad from power and had chastised the Obama administration for not acting more aggressively to oust him.”
Buck McKeon CA Real Clear Politics: “Using chemical weapons against innocent civilians is unacceptable,” the California Republican said early this week. “No regime can be allowed to do so with impunity.”
Mike Rogers R-MI CNN:  “I think at the end of the day, Congress will rise to the occasion,” Rogers said on CNN’s “State of The Union.”
Peter King NY Fox News Sunday: “I’m hoping by the time next week comes around, and hopefully the President can make his case, that he will be able to get a majority of the House of Representatives.”
Democratic Lean Nay
John Garamendi CA KCRA: “(With) what I know now, the answer is no,” said Rep. John Garamendi of Fairfield.”
Raul Grijalva AZ KVOA: “I’m very reluctant to support the resolution. We’ll wait until after September 8th to see what the resolution says.”
Mike Doyle PA Trib: “Doyle, who did not support the Iraq War, said he has a ‘high bar’ for military intervention but ‘will keep an open mind’ when Congress is briefed.’ Are we going it alone or will we be acting in concert with other countries?’ he said.”
John Tierney MA Boston.com: “The United States doesn’t always have to be the most outraged and the most aggressive.”
Chris Van Hollen MD USA Today:  Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said the resolution submitted Saturday by the White House is “too broadly drafted” and that he cannot vote for “a partial blank check.” NOTE: Nobody seriously thinks Van Hollen will be a “no” vote, but his comments put him here.
Brad Sherman CA See Van Hollen above; Sherman wants language change and will probably support once it’s done. Roll Call: “While the President makes the case for limited action, the resolution he proposes is without limits. The proposed resolution would give the President the authority to act with no limit on the duration of our involvement and it would authorize all types of military action, including boots-on-the-ground,” Sherman said. “We cannot give the President a blank check.”
Jim Himes CT Looking for the “boots on the ground” fig leaf. Hartford Courant: “While Himes has yet to receive a phone call from an administration official seeking his support, he said it “pains” him to oppose Obama on such a key issue. “I’m an admirer of this president,” the congressman said. “But because of his establishment of this red line in June, we find ourselves in a real box right now.”
John Larson CT Also wants the “boots” fig leaf.  Hartford Courant: “I am not in favor of putting boots on the ground there,” said U.S. Rep. John Larson, who represents the Hartford area.”
Xavier Becerra CA Buzzfeed: “I myself have questions about any authorization for the use of force that goes beyond discreet task of sending a strong message that the use of chemical weapons is against not only international law but all moral authority on this planet,” said Rep. Xavier Becerra, the chairman of the Democratic caucus.
Michael Capuano MA NECN.com: “Massachusetts Congressman Mike Capuano went further, saying if he had to vote today, he would vote no.”
Republican Lean Nay
Devin Nunes CA Fresno Bee: “A limited missile strike, as President Obama seems to be considering, probably would not accomplish much,” said Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Visalia, a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.
Jeff Denham CA KCRA: “”I am extremely reluctant to see our nation become involved in such a complex and uncertain conflict without further debate and discussion in Congress.”
Shelly Moore Capito WV WV Metro News: “As of Friday, Capito said she was opposed to such actions and would continue to maintain that stand unless convinced otherwise by supporting intelligence information.”
Scott Rigell  VA MSNBC: “This beautiful Capitol is empty largely and yet a vigorous debate took place in the parliament in Britain…[Obama] must come before Congress….We can be here in Washington DC in 24 hours. We could have, say, perhaps 12 hours to debate and deliberate and then vote an up or down vote, both houses, a concurrent resolution,” he added.
Jim Gerlach PA House site: “I believe the War Powers Act is clear that the President cannot undertake military action unless and until there is an attack on the United States, an imminent threat of an attack on our country and its citizens, or Congress otherwise authorizes military action for a specific purpose. None of those conditions have been met with regard to Syria.
Glenn Thompson PA Sun Gazette: Absent an imminent threat to our national security, I do not support military intervention in Syria. Should the president believe the situation in Syria poses such a threat, it’s imperative that he make the case before Congress so that elected representatives have an opportunity to put any action to a vote. At this point, it remains unclear as to what goals intervention would achieve
Mario Diaz-Balart FL Miami Herald: “while I would like to wholeheartedly support our Commander-in-Chief in the event of military action in Syria, any use of force must be purposeful, overwhelming, and in furtherance of specifically enumerated national security interests. Unfortunately, the President has failed to provide a coherent policy on Syria to date.”
Tom McClintock CA KCRA: “I believe that absent an attack or imminent threat to the United States or a specific authorization by Congress, the order of a military attack on the government of Syria would be illegal and unconstitutional.”
Keith Rothfus PA Daily American: “U.S. military action I don’t think is appropriate at this time,” the first-term representative said. “You need to ask, What is the objective of military action, and you need to ask, What is the likely outcome of military action?”
Mike Kelly PA Trib: “Obama hasn’t defined a military objective, Rep. Mike Kelly, R-Butler, said.”
Tim Murphy PA Trib: “I want to know why this circumstance is different. I also want to know what plan, if any, exists to deal with potential retaliation from United States military strikes that could deepen and widen this conflict. Many questions must be answered if we are to move forward and go it alone.”
Bill Huizinga MI MI Live: Huizenga has urged caution before proceeding with a strike against Syria.
Tom Cole OK USA Today: “I’m still leaning ‘no’”
Michael Burgess TX USA Today: Burgess said he would continue to consider the resolution, but at this point “I’m a ‘no’.”
Steve Pearce NM Las Cruces Sun: “I still believe intervention in Syria is a wrong and costly course. However, I look forward to reviewing all related materials, and to a thorough and detailed debate in Congress, where the issue should be decided.”
Democratic Lean Yea
Anne Kuster NH Concord Monitor: “This is a clear violation of basic human rights and the international community must hold Assad accountable. With that said, we should not put American troops on the ground.”
Adam Smith WA Armed Services Committee site: “[W]e should expand and accelerate our support for moderate elements of the opposition forces with both military and non-military aid.” (Ranking Member)
Alcee Hastings FL Miami Herald: “I will review every line [of the classified intelligence report] and then when we vote, if it is as the president says it is, I will vote in favor of authorization.
Sander Levin MI Lansing State Journal: Rep. Sander Levin, of Royal Oak, said that based on the evidence he has seen so far, “I think that there must be a response to the actions by the Syrian government.”
Republican Lean Yea