Of all the concessions to the Republicans, this is the one I had the least problem with (and before anybody asks, no, I’m not in the affected tax bracket).

Of course the entire thing is a manufactured crisis. Nobody blinked an eyelash when it came to giving the DoD their big pile o’ money recently, and few are talking about all the money wasted over the past decade on expensive and pointless wars. So I reject the entire premise of a “fiscal cliff,” period.

Tellingly, the “countdown to fiscal cliff” clock running on the local news is sponsored by … wait for it … the Chamber of Commerce.

So I reject the entire premise of a “fiscal cliff,” period.

You’re in good company.

(Yes, I’ve pretty much flogged this piece, but it’s so concise that essentially everyone can grasp the salient points. Hence, the flogging…)

They don’t call hnim the “Great Capitulator” for nothing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3B1IQYD4Uew

After again reinforcing an image of weakness I shudder to think how the next fight will go when Democrats inherently have significantly less leverage.

For all purposes, using the term democrats and leverage in the same sentence is an oxymoron.

With all the folding he does, I don’t know how he can keep a crease in those pants.

I think one of the biggest problems we face is we are not in this thing together. The rich are a class apart. It is time we leveled the playing field. The only way I know to do that is the tax code – tax rates and the estate tax. So I’m not good with this deal. It falls in a category of not catastrophic but getting there. Just wait for round two, as Jon suggests. The caver in chief will show the way.

Saddest of all . . .

the more progressives protest the more convinced Obama becomes of his statesmanship and above it allness.

Hopefully the House GOP will refuse to vote for any tax increase and we start over Thursday with a new Congress.

I think you are wishing too hard.

It’s sewn in.

President Origami.

“Look how angry the liberals are at me!” is always his negotiating position with the GOP. To which they will reply, “You seem to like getting them angry — here’s some other opportunities to do that!”

Sending Biden and McConnell into a room to ‘close’ this deal does ignore one salient fact: those two guys made the deal on the debt ceiling, back in August 2011, that got us to the ‘cliff’ in the first place.

I shudder to think how the next fight will go when Democrats inherently have significantly less leverage

but Jon, he already said he is not going to play that game, right? O maybe he meant he’ll sign whatever they want. Didn’t think of that.

So are these rate concessions locked in the tax code permanently are do they expire in three months, 1 year or 2 years?

If one assumes that whatever the world’s worst negotiator would come up with is about where Obama will end up on any particular deal, I guess its inevitable the sequester block lasts three months (just in time to be tied into a debt ceiling cave!) but the lower tax rates last forever.

As the instigator for the platinum coin idea, do you still think it is legal and viable? (not that I expect this guy to do anything about it but as a curiosity for the next Republican President.)

I have a friend who is getting a two per cent tax hike tomorrow no matter what. He is working and makes less than 110,000 dollars a year. Know anyone like that? His payroll taxes are going up, no matter how much these politicians talk. What ever happened to the Making Work Pay tax benefit?????

Lucy holds the football for Charlie Brown …..Again ?

Tom, you are just too liberal for this game. Why would you think O would care about that? /s

Works for me!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Making_Work_Pay_tax_credit

Unemployment insurance has only got a one year extension too. Who care about the little guy? It’s about the top income tax rates and estate taxes you know.

Congress gets a pay raise. All is well. s/

It’s only fair right?

I knew there was a reason we kept you around here. I woulda never thought of that.

Do you guys think what I think, that ne of Obama’s ancestors was negotiating FOR the Indians for Manhattan Island????Seems unlikely, BUT…….

I am looking at the reported deal as reported by Ezra Klein.

Given the totality circumstances, at first blush this deal, if acuurately reported, doesn’t look that bad to me. But, what would I know about tax law?

Here are the details, as multiple sources close to the talks have described them to me: The top tax rate rises to 39.6 percent for individuals making more than $400,000 and families making more than $450,000. Capital gains and dividends will be taxed at 20 percent with the same income thresholds. The Personal Exemption Phaseout (PEP) is set at $250,000 and the itemized deduction limitation (Pease) kicks in at $300,000. The AMT is patched permanently. The estate tax would exempt estates up to $10 million and tax them at 40 percent above that.

The various business tax credits — R&D, wind, etc — would be extended through 2013, as would unemployment insurance. The stimulus tax credits — namely, the expansions of the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Child Tax Credit, and the college credit — would be extended for five years, which is hugely important to the White House. The scheduled cuts to doctors in Medicare would be averted

You can’t spell doormat without O.

The estate tax would exempt estates up to $10 million ….

Working stiffs.

Obi has always been a compromiser… he makes no bones about it. Lines in the sand is not a concept he practices or believes in.

Bernie Sanders said he will decide when the compromise mishmash comes to his desk. Several times he threatened to vote no to a bad deal but voted yes in the end.

He could vote no and be the vote that makes a difference saving the US from a defense Auden for a few weeks or else those who want military cuts could offer a joint ultimatum.

http://my.firedoglake.com/richardkanepa/

If the cliff falls and the military industries scream at least for a few weeks Americans will realize why we are heading for bankruptcy.

Otherwise the military is like the air we breeze ie all around us

I think that the Pease phaseouts of certain deductions would be restored, and so that creates a higher effective marginal tax rate in the $250,000 and above range.

Main problem I have with it is that the tax cuts will now be permanent while almost everything Obama is getting is temporary.

In the , “I only wish” category, what if our legislaturds ONLY got a raise if their approval rating was over 45%?????

I’m telling you guys, if I was KING, we wouldn’t have any problems in this country. That includes Donald Trump AND the Kardashian clan.

A household income of 250K puts that household in the top 3%.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/01/15/business/one-percent-map.html

What’s being forgotten is how high Obama’s bogus $250K “line in the sand” was in the first place.

Guess that’s the Democrats’ new definition of “middle class”.

Nothing about restoring “Making Work Pay”, which was an $800 credit at low income? This has been a stimulus measure from the days that George Bush sent out checks in Summer 2008.

That’s a good one! LOL

Who knows Jane?….I don’t actually doubt that you are a well intentioned individual and to be frank (and not obama), I give that you have earned and so deserve respect.
Can you entertain the idea that this entire Left/Right retail bullshit charade is a waste of time akin to bread and circuses?
I jumped off the republican/conservative plantation. It was a quite painful experience…Still alive though and being free is a bitch, however I have no regrets.
If enough of us had the courage to step out of the lies…and firedog promotes them ceaselessly…..Maybe instead of talking out our asses about the sort of world we believe is possible…We could actually begin ushering it in?

Good point.

I don’t imagine negotiations will change at all in the future based on O caving on the $250K tax line. The quivering weakness of the D side is a feature of the kabuki dance. Everyone everywhere knows how “negotiations” end.

$10 million, like you and me?????

Sorry, I couldn’t type that with a straight face.

Bummer. My heirs will get to pay tax on a few million since I’m over the limit./s

Oh yes, its perfectly legal (a matter of intense irritation to a lot of people who’ve looked into it), Geithner could pull the trigger at any time. Likewise Ben Bernanke and his fellow Fed governors could go into the philanthropy business in a big way by (“the Secretary of the Treasury may accept for the Government a gift of… an obligation of the Government included in the public debt made only on the condition that the obligation be canceled and retired and not reissued.”).
http://monetaryrealism.com/ben-bernanke-and-the-trillion-dollar-gift/

Logistically, the Fed could donate back the T-bonds it holds in a matter of seconds (T-bonds aren’t even issued on paper anymore) but I suppose a lottery winner-style oversized check would need to be printed so the press could figure out what was going on.
http://aug-cdn.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/superphoto/editorial/images/feed/msms/photos/4615288.jpg

We’re more likely to see a trillion dollar giftthan a trillion dollar coin for the simple reason that Chairman Bernanke (who would have a the whip hand) seems to take his job more seriously than anyone else in Washington.

I may be wrong but I thought the “median” income was around $60K a year.

It’s like the NY Jets. we always lose in the end. But we talk a good game in the run up.

…and I’m surprised this announcement wasn’t made a couple of days ago. But then, the newest version of this dance includes missing or very nearly missing deadlines to create the feeling of urgency that used to be accomplished earlier in the process.

Thanks. You know from an accounting standpoint the debt the fed holds should not be considered outstanding anyway. I’ve always wondered about that.

I don’t know, it seems to me that getting this done in some way so that people won’t lose their unemployment insurance has to be way more important than which income level gets more taxes. The conversation about Obama not acting the right way do not take into consideration the families who really are looking over the cliff.

I really appreciate your posts. OTOH, they always seem to raise my level of frustration I have with our government.

But, as you all know, my two Dos Equis for lunch helps.

Ifn I can’t get back here today, my thanks for all the entertainment and comraderie I have enjoyed here, my first yeat at FDL. I hope everybody has a Happy anda Healthy New Year. I mean that, ncg.

Panic. We need a sense of panic so we know these guys are really working for us.

who are anti-fascist bloggers running ideas & stories beyond “Swoon! 0bummer-dlc-thrid-way-blue-dog-clinton-yuppie-sell-out has sold us out! Swoon!”

jon walker belongs with mcjoan and that jed dude over at dkos.

I need a little more content than what I get at naked capitalism.

thanks for any ideas

rmm.

LOL!!!

Where the real money and clout resides is with the people who’ll benefit from the estate, capital gains, etc and they aren’t touching that, apparently. It will be a slow regression to the center-right/right from here on out. The obstruction of the Tea Party bunch vs. the cries from the wilderness of the progressives is an amazing thing to behold, indeed. A Grand Bargain, after the 1st of February, would of been so much better. If only for the political theatrics going into the next round of negotiations, the next election cycle. FDR said it best, ” Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob. ” Here! Here!

That is a good point. But some of us think he could get a better deal. And he may give up more in a few weeks.

A little info on the (proposed) estate tax giveaway.

Are you suggesting by that last paragraph that Ben could or would reject the coin?

I think there is a fair amount of panic around my office and neighborhood.

As soon as this deal is done to protect the wealthy, we’ll be back to “deficits do matter,” and that will mean bigger cuts for working class programs like Social Security, Medicare, and student loan programs. It won’t matter that the nation’s retirement program does NOT add to the deficit.

The Caver-in-Chief strikes again, always looking out for the wealthy while giving lip service to the middle class.

Funny how that works. I suppose deficits from rich people not paying their fair share of estate taxes and income taxes are a different kind of money that doesn’t add to the deficit. That’s all I can figure.

I really appreciate your posts. OTOH, they always seem to raise my level of frustration I have with our government.

Thanks for the kind word and sorry for bumming you out. The best way to explain our government (or to be precise, the kind of people who can raise the money to get elected to government) is how Gavin de Becker once explained “learned helplessness”.

“The way circus elephants are trained demonstrates this dynamic well: When young, they are attached by heavy chains to large stakes driven deep into the ground. They pull and yank and strain and struggle, but the chain is too strong, the stake too rooted. One day they give up, having learned that they cannot pull free, and from that day forward they can be “chained” with a slender rope. When this enormous animal feels any resistance, though it has the strength to pull the whole circus tent over, it stops trying. Because it believes it cannot, it cannot.”
http://www.noogenesis.com/malama/discouragement/helplessness/circus_elephants.html

If our leaders during World War II were as half-assed as our current leaders, America’s number one export today would be Japanese Army comfort women. On that cheery note, Happy New Year! :o)

It seems to me that threatening the unemployed with ‘poverty, is part of the general process of hostage taking. Cruel and unusual punishment?/s

We are looking at 49.7 million in poverty already. With more to come as we slow march toward more austerity. Of so sayeth Heidi Moore.

Apparently the House won’t vote on the deal tonight, so over the cliff we go! Whee!

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood
GOP leadership aide tells House will NOT vote on deal tonight. Which means, at least in technical sense, we go over #fiscalcliff at midnight

I did get a chance to swing back by. Thanks. We need more people like you. And. me, of course, to entertain those in the psych ward. Just might get reallly crowded in there, soon.

That’s the official Rethug position: Spending has to be offset, tax cuts don’t. Idiotic but true.

Let’s all tug one more time on that seat belt to make sure it’s tight.

MayDaze #62

What spending cuts are in this deal?

Like a roller coaster, put your hands up!

Not speaking of this deal, that’s just their general position. IIRC there are no spending cuts in the deal.

Oh not at all. One, the Fed can’t reject the deposit of legal tender by anyone, that goes doubly so for the Secretary of the Treasury. Two, Bernanke has his head screwed on straighter than anyone else in govt, even if accepting the trillion dollar coin were voluntary, he’d still accept it to avoid a financial catastrophe.

the weak link here wouldn’t be the bank but the depositor. Just like with executing an innocent man, it takes balls to deposit a trillion dollar coin. Unless it was preceded by a permission slip from Robert Rubin, I just don’t see Obama or Geithner pulling the trigger. I believe its more likely for Bernanke and his Fed governors to take constructive action generously help the Republic pay down its debt by donating back the Fed-held Treasuries.

It is curious that Fed-held debt is even counted against the debt ceiling. If any trustee donated private trust assets to Tsy in this way they’d be guilty of wasting assets equitably owned by a beneficial owner. Seeing as Tsy IS the beneficial owner of Fed-held assets (one of the legal tests of equitable ownership is who receives the income generated by trust assets— guess where the Fed rebates its net earnings to every year?), there’s actually no breach of duty issues on the part of Fed governors if they donated trillions in T-bonds back to Tsy.

I’ve been fighting my ass of for Obama, now it’s his turn. republicans are pos, working to bring this country down, from their disterous policies to their obstruction. All we ask is a little stiff ass from Obama, and he fails us. Well, next time he asks, I’m agonna fail him. I’m used to telling republicans I know to get a clue, now I’m telling Obama.

MayDaze @66

Exactly.

What appears to be in this deal is a $600 billion tax increase over the next decade for the wealthy and an extension of benefits to everyone else.

More from Klein:

“if, as Republicans believe and some Democrats fear, the White House folds when confronted with the debt ceiling and agrees to big entitlement cuts in return for few or no revenues, this deal will be seen as the moment when the White House blinked and traded away the guaranteed revenue of the fiscal cliff for a lowball offer from the GOP.”

I guess sometimes the House Republicans end up doing the Lord’s work after all.

I understand (what I think is) your position: On it’s face, not all that bad a deal.

No deal = almost $4 trillion in tax increases over the same period, the vast majority of which would come from the rich. I recall a video from 2001 (when the cuts were introduced) in which two Dems had a muffler to show the value of tax cuts an average taxpayer would get and a new Mercedes to show what the rich would get. This is the hand Obama held. I just think he could have gotten a lot more for it. Here’s what the current deal gets him (per Klein):

The various business tax credits — R&D, wind, etc — would be extended through 2013, as would unemployment insurance. The stimulus tax credits — namely, the expansions of the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Child Tax Credit, and the college credit — would be extended for five years…

Not enough IMO.

trademarkdave #70

The key word is “if.”

My point is that this deal [assuming Klein has it about right], in and of itself, cannot be fairly characterized as a fold or capitulation.

Thanks again. I do find it odd that bonds held by the government are considered outstanding, if it were corporate stock it would not be. I even wonder about the SS bonds. But then I don’t make the rules.

There is the weak link. I doubt Rubin would sign the permission slip for Timmy. OTOH Obama doesn’t have the balls to ask for it.

This way the tax cuts officially expire and they can’t be accused of “raising” taxes. Don’t give the bastards any credit. ;)

Yeppers, Congress and Joe get a raise and we peons get bupkiss!

Just my opinion but while the tax rise is good as a offset it is not enough given the estate tax and low ball on unemployment and no payroll tax holiday. I think it is on the bummer side of the ledger.

bluedot12 @77

The estate tax was never going back to 2001. That was fool’s gold. Midwestern Dems would have been slaughtered over it.

It was always a bone the GOP was going to get. I was surprised the Dems got the extra 5% rate over the exemption equivalent.

This was a chance to start to level the playing field with the rich. Keep running away and you eventually lose every battle a d the war. So, no, we caved too easily.

Lol. So true.

bluedot12

This deal does, to some degree, level the playing field. Do not forget, the health care surcharge, 3.9% on passive income above $250K, begin tonight at midnight.

This battle was not lost.

As far as the war, it is too soon to tell.

I think I said this deal was not catastrophic but getting there. I’ll stay with that for now.

I doubt you’ll find many here who don’t believe that something like extending unemployment insurance *should* be the priority. Our elected have created cynicism around here by manipulating our common sense desire for extending unemployment insurance to fabricate a political crisis where in order to keep unemployment insurance going, we have to lose something equally or more important like Social Security. The point is that the political crisis is totally fabricated.

If, and when, the House votes I’m thinking it’ll be 228-207 in favor. Around those #s, with most of the the Tea Party and Progressive Caucus on the NO side. Hoyer and Cantor can whip votes until the cows come home but this is still austerity for the left/center and real tax increases for the Norquist die hards. Interesting to see how Pelosi spins this iron pyrite. And, makes it appear like she’s on the side of the little people. Hah!

When hasn’t the electorate been fed fabrications to create a political crisis? A political economy, such as we have, is always going to be fabricated b.s. because of our international priority; property rights over human rights. Slavery is the best example, to the rest of the world, of just exactly what were all about; what European Monarchies are really about. Next, of course, is our treatment of Native Americans. Were all kings, paladins or serfs or dead, really. It’s just that we appear to be better compensated. And, so it goes.

Of all the concessions to the Republicans, this is the one I had the least problem with (and before anybody asks, no, I’m not in the affected tax bracket).

Although this is the one that leads to the histrionics over the debt and deficit. I’d be happy to see taxes go up enough to cover the deficit, and then see the Very Serious People hem and haw and dissemble why we MUST make old people eat cat food anyways.

-stewartm

Second, it again reinforced that the best negotiation tactic with Obama is for the Republicans to be purposely disingenuous. The GOP should pretend to be close to a deal so Obama publicly says what concessions he will make, only to have the GOP predictably blow up the deal. After that, the GOP can start negotiations again but use Obama’s concessions as the new goal posts.

After Obama again reinforced his image of weakness, I shudder to think how the next fight will go when Democrats inherently have significantly less leverage.

Does anyone else not think that the very reason why Boehner requested a tet-a-tet with Obama sans Reid and Pelosi was–despite the spinelessness of Dims in general–they know that Obama is really an awful negotiator and that if they can just get him in a room one-on-one he’ll give away the store?

I shudder to think what the end of WWII would have looked like with Obama as C-in-C. At the Treaty of Berlin we would have ceded Nazi Germany the east coast.

-stewartm

At the Treaty of Berlin we would have ceded Nazi Germany the east coast.

And that’s if we had still won! God knows what he’d give away if we had actually lost.