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President Barack Obama, he knows.
In the fight over the Bush tax cuts President Obama appears to have the political upper hand. According to a new poll for the Americans for Tax Fairness, Obama’s position on the Bush tax cuts is more popular, and if a deal is not reached on the Bush tax cuts most voters will blame the Republicans. From the ATF memo:
When voters hear President Obama’s position on the Bush tax cuts – that he will sign a bill continuing them for 98 percent of Americans, but will veto a bill continuing them for incomes over $250,000 – 61 percent agree with his stance, including 40 percent who strongly agree, and only 35 percent disagree. In contrast, when voters are read the congressional Republican’s position – that they will pass a bill continuing the cuts for all income levels but will block any bill ending the cuts for those making over $250,000 – only 42 percent agree with the GOP position, while a 53 percent majority rejects it.
If no agreement is reached and the Bush tax cuts expire for all Americans, voters say by a 15-point margin that they will blame Republicans in Congress (43 percent), not President Obama (28 percent) for the resulting tax increase. Democrats will clearly win support from the middle of the electorate in this scenario. By lopsided margins, such key voting groups as independents (+21 points), swing voters (+34 points), and moderates (+30 points) say that they will blame congressional Republicans more than the president.
This closely mirrors the result from a Pew Research/Washington Post poll earlier this week. It found that if government fails to reach a deal regarding all aspects of the “fiscal cliff,” 53 percent will blame Congressional Republicans and just 29 percent will blame Obama.
President Obama has strong political incentives to not reach a deal until after the new year. To begin with, the new Congress will be slightly more Democratic. Secondly, allowing all the Bush tax cuts to expire will make it easier for Republicans to get around their tax pledge. Finally, the polling makes it clear that if Obama chooses to drag out negotiations until he is in a better position it is actually the Republicans who will be blamed.
With all that taken into consideration I would be surprised if any real actions were taken before January.
Photo by Pete Souza, Whitehouse.gov.
23 Comments
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Why should I think Obama wants the public to think badly of the Republican Party? Outside of some empty campaign rhetoric, he’s never tried to make that happen before .
The fiscal cliff is the sequester and the bush tax cuts are being included as a false bargaining chip. They are separate items to be considered separately are they not? The cliff will supposedly be the result of automatic cuts. Expiration of bush tax cuts was already assumed when sequester was shoved down our throats. This whole discussion is Bull Shit and no one in D.C. is on “our” side. The second recession is coming before any of this BS will actually get done and then we will all be clamoring for a second (third?) stimulus and fuck the deficit again.
Damn. And here I am with no “cliff diving” apparell whatsoever.
If we assume that Obama will surrender again like he did on healthcare his tough talk now is only talk and he will trade the GOP something in return like Social Security cuts or a raise in the age for SS.
But Obama has to make the deal now while the GOP still has lame duck Tea Baggers in the House to surrender too.
Remember how healthcare and Obama’s surrender on stimulus jobs cost Obama his popularity another surrender and Obama’s popularity will tank and this time I don’t think will recover.
Since the president is not eligible to run again, what good does that do HIM? Is he just playing a game? Does he CARE really?
He has the “upper hand”? WEll I think he should extend a hand across the aisle. Well, not really, what I mean is just extend one finger..
Hey, don’t blame me. I voted for Jill Stein.
Given all of Obama’s tough talk if SS, Medicare get cut most voters will blame him.
It gets him corporate board jobs and high speech fees if he gives up to the GOP again. I voted JIll too:)
With al due respect….Recover TO WHAT.He can’t run again. He h as the same situation now that he had for the past two years.
Does he really care what anybody thinks of him?
HOnestly, I really don;t know.
The decisions he makes and others in D.C. will result in deaths of older, infirm, and at risk citizens and I truly think they won’t lose any sleep over that fact. Someone won’t have enough money for food and heat this winter and they will die. These guys and gals in their limos and Audi’s don’t have a clue what a fixed income is or they don’t care. Every time I hear what each “side” is proposing I think What would Jill do? There is a different world possible.
With al due respect….Recover TO WHAT.He can’t run again. He h as the same situation now that he had for the past two years.
Your right he is untouchable he can betray us even more now. Is there a single promise Obama has not betrayed us on?
Change you can bereave in? I am in a bereavement group now.
These polls are reminiscent of the TV show “Family Feud”. They’re not looking for the correct answer, they’re looking for what the “studio audience” thinks is the answer.
Maybe its time for a Pro Anger group :) If we the Left fail things will get worse and there will be revolution. I try my best talking here to prevent that but it does seem we are failing.
“Is there a single promise Obama has not betrayed us on?”
Why didn’t Obama cross the road?
Because he’d promised he would.
And he’s really going to give a damn? His future is assured, and he’s building his “legacy” as the great bipartisan builder-of-bridges-with-the-politically-insane, a role he seems to relish.
Yes, and he will tell them seriously and with great sorrow that there was just no other way to keep democracy safe and ensure that the bond vigilantes didn’t jump out of the closet and grab them–BOO!
All great successes have a fail in their history. :)
Plus he’s the first AA to be POTUS & then elected for a 2d Term.
His legacy is burnished as far as Obama is concerned, and then: Money & lots of it. Obama worship at the shrine of the Golden Fatted Calf. CHA-CHING!!!!
The basic problem is wew keep sending the same lamebrains back to congress every two years. And these legislaturds no longer answer to the people, but to the corporations and the lobbyists. Even our presidents, of late, seems unable to empathize with the middle class OR perhaps they are simply so beholden to their benefactors, that they are conflicted.
This “government of the people, by the people, and for the people HAS, unfortunately, perished from this land.
Ah-ha….. there was the one about…….no.
I’m sure there was SOMETHING.
Note that ATF frames this as Obama vs. the Republicans. The Democratic Party, particularly the Democratic Senate, is ignored; it’s assumed that Obama is negotiating for them, and that they will stand behind whatever he agrees to. It would probably be more effective to pressure vulnerable Senate Democrats than a lame-duck president.
ATF (run by John Podesta’s CAP, Richard Trumka’s AFL-CIO, and other Administration supporters) exists as an Obama megaphone. Other goals it has are: “shoring up Social Security and Medicare for the long term”, “reducing the federal deficit “, “closing corporate tax loopholes” and so on — basically the Administration boilerplate.
I GOT IT!!!!!
He promissed to get the girls a puppy and he DID!!!
That is the best comment of the day!