A new survey of 38 former Supreme Court clerks and 18 attorney’s who have argued before the Court found that these insiders believe there is a good chance the Court will rule against the individual mandate. On average the group thinks there is a 57 percent chance the mandate will be struck down. The survey was done by Purple Insight for the conservative American Action Forum. From the AAF:
Supreme Court insiders now believe there is a better than 50-50 chance that the Supreme Court will strike the individual mandate from the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), a significant jump from before the Court’s oral arguments. The insiders survey, comprised of a representative sample of former Supreme Court clerks and attorneys who have argued before the Court, was commissioned by the American Action Forum and Center Forward, and was conducted by Purple Insights, the research division of Purple Strategies.
Prior to the oral arguments in March, Supreme Court insiders on average thought that the probability the SCOTUS majority would find the individual mandate unconstitutional was 35 percent. When polled in June, this rose to 57 percent, a 22 percentage point jump.
The survey also found the group thinks that if the Court does strike down the individual mandate, the most likely outcome is the court will also find that the mandate is only partially severable from the whole law, so some related provision will also be eliminated.
On the other hand they seem to believe the Medicaid expansion is safe. On average they think there is just a 22 percent possibility the court will find it unconstitutional.
This is a very small sample size done for a conservative organization, and how the “experts” were picked would affect the results, so take the result with a grain of salt. But the average prediction from this group of experts is not far off from my own. It is obviously impossible to guess what the nine judges are thinking, but this is probably a decent enough guide of what experts think the law’s odds are.