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A new survey of 38 former Supreme Court clerks and 18 attorney’s who have argued before the Court found that these insiders believe there is a good chance the Court will rule against the individual mandate. On average the group thinks there is a 57 percent chance the mandate will be struck down. The survey was done by Purple Insight for the conservative American Action Forum. From the AAF:
Supreme Court insiders now believe there is a better than 50-50 chance that the Supreme Court will strike the individual mandate from the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), a significant jump from before the Court’s oral arguments. The insiders survey, comprised of a representative sample of former Supreme Court clerks and attorneys who have argued before the Court, was commissioned by the American Action Forum and Center Forward, and was conducted by Purple Insights, the research division of Purple Strategies.
Prior to the oral arguments in March, Supreme Court insiders on average thought that the probability the SCOTUS majority would find the individual mandate unconstitutional was 35 percent. When polled in June, this rose to 57 percent, a 22 percentage point jump.
The survey also found the group thinks that if the Court does strike down the individual mandate, the most likely outcome is the court will also find that the mandate is only partially severable from the whole law, so some related provision will also be eliminated.
On the other hand they seem to believe the Medicaid expansion is safe. On average they think there is just a 22 percent possibility the court will find it unconstitutional.
This is a very small sample size done for a conservative organization, and how the “experts” were picked would affect the results, so take the result with a grain of salt. But the average prediction from this group of experts is not far off from my own. It is obviously impossible to guess what the nine judges are thinking, but this is probably a decent enough guide of what experts think the law’s odds are.
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A different way to analyze the results:
1. Which is best (maximum profit) for the entrenched medical/insurance complex?
2. Which is worst for consumers (mandate without guaranteed coverage)?
3. Which makes Obama look a loser?
1 The med/insurance complex wants the mandate.
2 If the mandate goes, the preexisting condition law goes too, meaning the whole law is gutted.
3 I don’t give a shit how Obama looks, though the media will be full frothytime mode over it.
You understanding of the situation is outstanding.
I think you are three for three.
You understanding of the situation is outstanding.
I think you are three for three, TOO.
The Justices have a dilemma on their hands alright.
Uphold the mandate and expose themselves for the corporate whores that they are or strike it down and anger their corporate masters.
Which will it be? Bets anyone?
LOL I don’t think they care about being known as corporate whores, but hitting O where it hurts might sway them, and if they get rid of preexisting there masters will be okay with that I think
Ready, that’s the way I’ve been looking at this. Support corporate masters or kick obama’s ass.
What’s the mechanism ensuring that justices enjoying lifetime tenure continue to obey their masters?
If the Court strikes down the Rube Goldberg Health Insurance “Reform” Act, President Obama will go into the record books with two dubious accomplishments:
1. Spending the most political capital in the least amount of time with the smallest return of all time.
2. Going through an entire first term as president and accomplishing nothing substantial.
I hope Obama has a good architect lined up for his presidential library and museum. It’s going to take real talent to fill up all the empty space.
I hope Obama is building it in Hawaii so they will have some to attract tourists (they’ll have to come by boat) when cheap oil runs out and no one can afford to fly there anymore.
The CIA hit squads?
Things might get so bad that even sea travel to Hawaii is impossible because the Pacific is a haven for pirates.
I should have phrased it better.
If the Supreme Court “Conservative” Justices don’t vote to strike down the mandate it destroys the carefully crafted illusion the Right has worked so hard to put forth to their Tea Party and Right Wing followers that they are the side that will protect the freedoms of the American people and uphold the Constitution.
The USSC will rule in favor of the mandate and against the medicaid expansion, and they’ll just channel the rank-and-file conservative outrage with a message that the USA needs to go even further and further to the right. Obama is the best thing that ever happened to real conservatives and the 1%. Not only is he conservative himself, but his party affiliation and his race leads the rank-and-file right to believe that we need even more corporate happy conservatism.
You’re first link explains both who and how they were picked – former Supreme Court Clerks of the current Supreme Court Justices and given that’s who we are talking about, it doesn’t seem like there’s a very large population to begin with for the survey to be called a small sample size.
If they uphold the mandate the tea bags might explode. You have been following the Ron Paulbots uprising over Rand Paul’s backing of Romney haven’t you?
That’s good,je,je..
I don’t think so.
The health care law including the mandate will be upheld by a 6-3 vote with CJ Roberts writing the opinion.Commerce clause jurisprudence for the past 75 years mandates the legality of the mandate.
Both the loony left and the loony right are against the law which means it is a good law and will benefit the vast majority of the American people.
I’m no “expert”, but I’m quite sure they’ll rule for the mandate and against the medicaid expansion. If I’m right, am I bigger expert than the experts?
Where the “left” and “libertarians” have failed to shape public opinion is on the clear path overturning Obamacare leads to: legalizing growing and manufacturing your own drugs and exercising that fundamental right: pursuit of happiness.
If even the fringe press were running headlines predicting the Supreme Court inevitably would over turn both Obamacare and all the drug laws.
Obviously Congress can not dictate you MUST BUY health insurance and MUST BUY medical drugs in pursuit of happiness.