It is conventional wisdom never to negotiate for hostages, because such bargaining only makes hostage taking worthwhile. If there were no value available from hostage taking, people would have little reason to try taking hostages. If you do pay for a hostage, it signals to your adversaries that hostage taking is a great idea and they should do more of it.
Recently, President Obama again was taught this negotiation 101 lesson. Once again House Speaker John Boehner is threatening to hold the debt limit hostage in exchange for another round of one dollar of spending cuts for one dollar of debt increase. From a policy perspective I consider Boehner’s ask an idiotic demand that will do real damage to the economy, but this is the right move for Boehner as a negotiator.
Obama has repeatedly proven that he doesn’t have the resolve to stand up against this tactic. On both the extension of the Bush Tax Cuts and the first debt ceiling deal, Boehner took an unrelenting stance and Obama responded by quickly caving. Obama even publicly stated after one such showdown that he feels he must fold in the face of such hostage taking tactic.
Given that Obama has allowed this tactic to be so effective, it would be almost malpractice for Boehner not to use it more often to get what he wants. This is not the first time Boehner has take such a position, and if Obama keeps acting in the weak manner he has so far, it will not be the last time.
A lot has been made recently about how the problem with our government is that the Republican party has been taken over by extremists who refuse to compromise. While that is where much of the blame lies, if Democrats hadn’t repeatedly enabled, empowered and rewarded this approach, maybe the Republicans wouldn’t have so much incentive to adopt it. The Republicans have zero reason to actually compromise if they can get what they want without them needing to make concessions.





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His presidency has been a slow motion train wreck for nearly three and a half years. No need to change success now.
Why can’t this simple logic be applied to the ‘drug war’. If drugs were decriminalized, there would be no incentive to illegally market them in the underground as the price of drugs would be cheap and supply plentiful. The money saved could be applied to rehabilitation, treatment and intervention. But that would mean no more of this macho soldiering done by the Coast Guard, DEA, ATF, and local law enforcement agencies from coast to coast and outlying territories too.
It’s not weakness, it’s betrayal. They’re all Republicans in DC.
FDL could raise some $ with an “office pool”. Best do it quick though.
I seriously doubt that Obama gave in or caved. He got what he wanted with political cover. “The devil made me do it!”
This article dovetails nicely with your bipartisanship article (http://elections.firedoglake.com/2012/05/09/bipartisanship-is-dying-and-shouldnt-be-mourned/). Much head scratching has taken place (at least at FDL) on Obama’s ineffectiveness. Indeed this shows that far from being ineffective, Obama LLC/Dems have done quite well for its backers, just as the GOP, though not so much for the Citizenry or the Republic. Also current use of the Senate Filibuster and super majority isn’t a flaw, so much as it’s a feature.
Presactly, judge.
Concur. But Geraldine was funny.
They’re all Corporate puppets. Lose the partisanship. It’s just branding utilized as a weapon of mass distraction, and to give the illusion of democracy.
Brilliant all these years and commenting and reading others posts and you have summed up the flaw in Obama’s Presidency in a few words that while polite make the point.
To often I forget that an insult thats polite if done right because its polite gets heard more by even the strongest supporters and makes more of an impact with his supporters.
Mean things like Spineless, Lacking the Stones to do the job, surrenders every time the GOP Sneezes all among my personal favorites while effective for the choir I feel turn off the Obamabots.
Outside of reporting the facts which FDL does great on its not often I see great Public Relations messaging polite to the point short and effective.
This ranks up their with “Its the economy stupid” and ” where’s the beef”.
Now keep repeating this line if you want it to spread.
Jon’s key (and most accurate) sentence:
“Obama has repeatedly proved he doesn’t have the resolve to stand up against this tactic.”
Or, any other tactic that the republicans have used to strip him of about 90% of the power that american voters (led by progressives…) gave him in 2008.
And, I know, a lot us feel that it wasn’t really a “stripping”; it was a donation; a bending-over-and-spreading-cheek, etc, etc, ad nauseum. Even say, a plan. Which, more and more, is looking like the case, but for the sake of the discussion, we can pretend that brave, courageous, Obama was just beginning to start to commence to fight the good fight, when the big, bad, republicans stole his mojo. And we’ll be hearing more about this, from the likes of Tbogg, Digby, and Spaulding, and the “we suck less!” mouse circus as we move deeper into crunch-time, but the fact is, for whatever reason, Obama voluntarily checked into the GOP spay-and-neuter clinic and they were only too happy (and shocked, you can bet…) to be let out from under the bridge to wield their rusty butcher knife and remove his and the democrats political cajones.
And I don’t see how that is going to change. If the democrats can retake the House spending strings, it will be a political miracle. In fact if Obama can hang on to enough of the key swing states to keep the Senate, I will be surprised, and if he loses those, he’s also going to lose the presidency.
All Romney has to do is avoid a horrendous gaffe or two (Obama’s best hope…) and the republicans will keep Obama on a short leash as far as taking any real steps to help poor and working-class americans go (and there’s been precious little evidence that he, or the dems give a shit about doing that: (See: the DNC’s refusal (so far) to give money to help with the Walker recall move in Wisconsin…) and this election will be about Barack Obama, not Mitt Romney.
Given the historic opportunity which Obama has determinedly squandered, it should be.
This is idiotic. If the debt limit is reached, wouldn’t obama have the right to decide which bills get paid. Where is bonner from? Cut off federal spending in his district!
Agree but Obama did lie about being a Lefty now he’s stuck he can admit being a liar and lose the election but even more important for him look bad in the history books.
Or he he can look weak and stupid but maybe find some defenders in the history books who will cling to the notion his heart was in the right place.
The problem being being weak and stupid could also cost him the the election even more. Reagan was weak and stupid but he lucked out gas prices went down every post ww2 recession has been linked to at least in part to higher gas prices.
Reagan had lower gas prices and an increase in miles per gallon in cars Carter passed lowering gas prices even more.
The Soviet Union a big oil producer got hurt bad by lack of oil demand and a long war with Afghanistan destroying their economy.
That helped Reagan’s foreign policy the Soviets could not afford to counter Reagan’s aggressive policy in Iraq, South America, etc and it pushed them towards arms treaties.
Boehner Would Vote for Middle-Class Tax Package if That’s the Only Option
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/12/obama-economic-adviser-afford-tax-cuts-high-end-earners/
Obama wanted to renew the tax cuts for the rich, end of story.
Boehner said on the record, he would fold, there was no hostage taking.
in related economic news, the shit looks to be about ready to hit the fan in Greece:
http://news.yahoo.com/run-greek-banks-looks-180100901.html
Personally, I’d love to see the Greeks get out of the euro; default on the loans, take the consequences and look after themselves. but again, that implies a sharing of burdens, and “sharing” as we all know, to the one per centers, is like shouting “Fuck the Pope!” in the Sistine Chapel.
Given the bad economic times whats worse a leader who is evil and ineffective or one who is weak, stupid and ineffective?
Authoritarians who Obama seems intent on bending backwards for to please hate weakness like we hate Stupid but are willing to tolerate evil provided Obama was White and in their club.
Torture, Drone Strikes, not bringing any Bankers to court show Obama is evil. But if we charge Obama with weakness well my vote is that will piss off his beloved Authoritarians even more.
Plus by being polite our message gets out to more Obama people who daily get more disillusioned.
Obama only looks strong in the polls now because the GOP is intent on suicide they have pissed off Women, Gays, Hispanics, Union Workers etc.
Greece leaves the Euro Obama and Mitt will very well have to address banking issues right before the election which they do not want to do.
It will be funny to see them both try and demand more SS and Medicare cuts before the election even as they try and preserve the military budget and avoid talk of taxing the rich more.
The timing is to late for a third party this election but it gives us everything we need for a third party next election.
Bingo.
Yes Don’t feed rabid dogs:)
Incidentally, a phrase that used to be used a lot in the media, has practically disappeared:
“Cost of living”.
I don’t think there is anything that Obama can do (even if he wanted to) that is going to reduce the prices of the necessities, which are steadily climbing, by the week. Plus, any jobs that might be created don’t have a snake’s chance of keeping up with those increases. In the “minimum wage” versus maximum corporate control of the “marketplace”, minimum gets it’s ass kicked, every time.
Bingo, again! We have two winners! :o)
Undone puts his finger on the fear of the corporatists. It’s also why we’ve moved heaven and earth to crush Cuba and their effort to prove that socialism can work. If we’d relaxed all of the sanctions on them, who knows what they could have accomplished, Castro or not?
BTW: Dave Barry, noting the CIA motto: “Bravely overthrowing Fidel Castro for 50 years.”
No accident that the organization which has spent the most money lobbying congress to block trade with Cuba is, taaadaaa! the American SugarBeet Growers Association.
With Free trade in Cuba we could have real sugar in pop and food again sure its unhealthy but it beats corn syrup on health concerns America’s diabetes problem and its healthcare costs are made worse by this policy.
Never mind the effects on American candy makers. The policy is bad even from a GOP viewpoint in that it costs us more than it does Cuba.
In Cuba life expectancy and infant mortality rates are about to beat us. as far as Maslow is concerned the need for survival trumps all and must be met first.
In America we are slipping from first in these areas to right now barely above Cuba and Venezuela.
If we are to judge the cuba embargo lets look how far down we have gone and how far up Cuba has come on the issues we care about most life and your kids life in my book trumps wealth.
Yup. We heard endless nattering from the Veal Pen about FDR’s apocryphal “make me do it.” And indeed, that’s the game Obama is playing–with the Republicans.
Long as they have this discussion about their Grand Bargain before the election happens. This should be the only thing they are talking about. If you want to cut Social Security, if you want to cut Medicare (if???) do it now, in the daylight, before people vote.
Of course these spineless excuses for leaders will jabber about everything else until the election is over, at which point they will discover that they have a mandate to destroy what’s left of the New Deal.
Not that it makes a difference, I suppose. Both sides want it to happen. It’s just the 300 million of the rest of us who don’t.
> Agree but Obama did lie about being a Lefty
Now hold on a darn tootin’ minute – let’s be fair here. He did not say the words “I am a Lefty” in that specific order and with that exact capitalization, now did he? Huh? Did he?
> Why You Don’t Negotiate for Hostages
Exactly so, and which was said before each previous Obama/Dem capitulation. What is required is to force the Republicans to actually “kill the hostage” and then mercilessly crucify them for it each and every day, up and down every media outlet and public forum by every person within reach of a microphone, for years, to prevent future hostage taking. In the long run, this will save many more hostages than it harms. Currently there is no one in Washington willing to do that.
Whatever Obama does will be determined by what his pollster’s say the Republican suburbanites think. That is the constituency is is targeting, and it has been his constituency since he was elected. If they are afraid of the Big Bad Debt (which I doubt), he will deal. If not, he won’t. He is probably the most risk-averse President since James Buchanan, and we know how that worked out.
Wow! A real bank run, just like in the history books. This time by ordinary people, instead of the Hedgies the way it was last time around. My guess is that it will be like the old-time runs, when bankers insisted that people take their cash in pennies, and counted them out slowly to get to closing hour. The modern equivalent is ATM glitches: they happen all the time at my bank, and we don’t even have runs.
With the current political climate in Greece, if the banks start dragging their feet and restricting people’s access to their own money, there might be some banks on fire…which, on top of what’s already happening, wouldn’t help the “stability” that the banksters and Merckel, etc, not to mention Wall Street, are craving just now.
“He is probably the most risk-averse president since Jame Buchanan…”
That’s one of those laser-accurate statements that, praise Yahweh, we get to see on The Lake, lately, from both Threaders and posters…. :o)
And given the mountain of clout that he came in with, his political cowardice is unforgivable, to me.
Outstanding article Jon. Short and to the point. Discouraging as hell. But still excellent.
Will Harry Reid look like a wuss? Oh yeah.
Will Obama “cave” again? Probably.
Will Boehner break in to tears? Lemme check the radar.
Will McConnell be an asshole? Definately
I was gonna say William Henry Harrison, but Buchanan’s good.
“outstanding article, Jon.”
It IS.
And I hope he doesn’t mind my going OT here, but this needs to be talked about it’s an email I got from MoveON:
Dear MoveOn member,
As a Wisconsin progressive working day and night for the recall of Scott Walker, I’m shocked: The Democratic National Committee still isn’t giving financial support to the recall fight in Wisconsin.
After more than a year of grassroots efforts, Wisconsin citizens have accomplished more than anyone thought possible. We now have a Democratic challenger to Scott Walker who is neck and neck in the polls, even though Tom Barrett is being outspent by Walker’s millions from out-of-state donations.
There is no more time for the Democratic National Committee to wait—if Walker wins, it would be a huge setback to Democrats in races across the country this year. We need the DNC’s support immediately!
That’s why I created a petition on SignOn.org to DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, which says:
Democratic National Committee and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, invest now in the crucial fight to remove Scott Walker from office in Wisconsin—the people have worked hard and it’s time to help.
Will you sign the petition? Click here to add your name, and then pass it along to your friends:
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=275536&id=41481-2162476-jfZYTXx&t=2
Thanks!
–Mary Magnuson
Clooney couldn’t throw a few $mil$ THIS way?????
I dunno, ‘Guy…maybe he’s planning for a wedding, an early divorce, and didn’t get a good pre-nup. :o)
I like Clooney, he’s a good actor and his heart’s in the right place, but all of the Hollywood libs need to put some pressure on Obama, instead of falling in ranks for him like he was FDR.
I would agree. Clooney’s a great actor, and I think in George’s mind, he is doing the right thing, but Obama is just using Clooney’s starpower and his money.
Hollywood libs need to realise Obama is not FDR 2.0, more like Clinton 2.0, but without Clinton’s charisma and the sense of humor.
Well, I agree Clooney is doin’ good. But this Walker recall IS damned important and Obama and the DNC have been totally oblivious to it. If Obama can’t personally get involved, he could send Biden and any number of celebrities, like Clooney, to help out. A victory by the repuglicans here will be so disheartening to the 99%.
Maybe Obama likes Scott Walker.
Hollywood liberals COULD have a HUGE effect on national politics IF they wanted to.
My mother was undecided between JFK and LBJ in ’60. When she saw FRank Sinatra in Kennedy’s corner, that made up her mind.
> Maybe Obama likes Scott Walker
Could explain why Obama’s DNC is contributing exactly nothing to defeat him in Wisconsin. (Which is totally rifuckingdickulous and stupid.)
I think the specific political term is “fucking retarded”. They use that term in the White House, you know.
“Maybe Obama likes Scott Walker.”
Ouch. That’s gonna leave a bruise. :o)
Hell, he needs some democratic-inflicted bruises.
Just got another email:
Dear MoveOn member,
BREAKING NEWS FROM WISCONSIN: The Democratic National Committee is refusing requests to fund the massive get out the vote effort planned in Wisconsin to recall Scott Walker.1
Wisconsin is ground zero for Democrats this summer—and there are only three weeks before Election Day—which is why this breaking news just doesn’t make sense.
Scott Walker and his right-wing allies have spent millions, and they’ll spend millions more in the next few weeks. But Walker’s poll numbers won’t budge and if the Wisconsin Democrats can run the massive field program they have planned, we can win this.
Obama for America organizers are hard at work in the state, but the DNC’s lack of support has left a huge hole in the get out the vote budget. So MoveOn members need to step up. Can you help recall Walker?
Chip in $5 to the Wisconsin Democrats on ActBlue to beat Scott Walker.
Wisconsin citizens, with the support of activists from all around the country, have accomplished more than anyone thought possible. They’ve inspired all of us, and put fear into the hearts of other governors who wanted to attack the 99%. But if Walker survives the recall, we’ll have wasted a year of effort.
With only a few weeks left, the DNC is feeling the heat and says they may provide more help, but we can’t wait for them. We have to do it ourselves.
Can you chip in $5 today via ActBlue to make sure that Scott Walker is finally recalled from office?
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=275581&id=41553-2162476-7ROlNRx&t=2
Thanks for all you do.
–Daniel, Levana, and the rest of the team
Source:
1. “EXCLUSIVE: Wisconsin Dems furious with DNC for refusing to invest big money in Walker recall,” The Washington Post, May 14, 2012
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=275547&id=41553-2162476-7ROlNRx&t=3
2. “DNC is MIA in Wisconsin,” Politico, May 16, 2012
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76364.html
Want to support our work? We’re entirely funded by our 7 million members—no corporate contributions, no big checks from CEOs. And our tiny staff ensures that small contributions go a long way. Chip in here.
PAID FOR BY MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION, http://pol.moveon.org/. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.This email was sent to Larry Dunnagan on May 16, 2012. To change your email address or update your contact info, click here. To remove yourself from this list, click here.
I go now to sell my house to send money to the DNC for November…
Like hell, I do.
I’m always amazed that people forget this. No matter how many times this subject comes up, the myth that Boehner was “unrelenting” on renewing all the Bush tax cuts and would not settle for a “middle class” extension for those with incomes below 250k if that was all he could get lives on. Good thing for Boehner that Obama saw to it he could get essentially everything he wanted, plus more. (Obama’s the one that piled on the estate tax cut. Republicans didn’t even have to ask.)