To understand how we got to the point where the Supreme Court could potentially strike down the entire Affordable Care Act because of the individual mandate, it is important to identify the string of stupid mistakes Democrats made that got us to this point. By my current count, Democrats had at least eight big chances to avoid this possible that they completely messed up.
1) Lack of severability clause in the law – This was simply an inexcusable mistake of historic proportions. For whatever reason, Senate Democrats forget to include a standard severability clause in their drafting of the ACA, which would allow the entire law to stand even if one provision was deemed unconstitutional. Even if there wasn’t a serious debate about the law, they still should have included it as standard practice. Not including one was just malpractice, given how Republicans, even before the bills passage, said they would challenge the mandate. If one had been included, we would only be talking about the Court possibly striking down a single provision instead of the 2,700 page law.
2) Ignoring Republican promises to challenge the mandate – Democrats knew this challenge would be coming. Republicans repeatedly said they would make it if the law was signed; but arrogantly, Democrats believed there was zero chance it would go anywhere. As result, they didn’t even try to take precautions. If Democrats had merely taken the GOP threat seriously and decided it is better to be safe than sorry, they could have modified the mandate to address the GOP’s inactivity argument. Adopting something like Paul Starr’s five year opt out could have done that.
3) Ignoring public hatred of the mandate – The public hates the individual mandate and hated it during the drafting of the law. Democrats could have listened to the American people and replaced the mandate with something less offensive that still encouraging enrollment, like back premium penalties. Almost every individual mandate alternative out there is less constitutionally questionable. I also suspect the country’s hatred for the mandate could make the conservative justices feel emboldened to use this case to make a statement about federal power.
4) Dropping the Public Option – If Democrats had kept the public option in the bill, they could have argued the government is not compelling you to enter commerce with the mandate, it is only compelling you to give money to the government via public option. This could have been a stronger legal position.
In addition, if Democrats had taken Republican threats of a legal challenge to the mandate seriously, they could have sightly altered the law using a public option to make it clearly constitutional. They could have made it so that you were technically paying a tax and getting the public option, but would get a deduction if you opted for private insurance. Somewhat like a really stripped down “Medicare for the uninsured” with the ability to opt for Medicare Advantage.
5) Congress refusing to call it a tax – Congress should have called the individual mandate penalty a tax. This would have strengthened the argument that it is constitutional under Congress’ taxing power. Instead, Democrats played politics by pretending they weren’t creating a new tax.
6) Obama team refusing call it a straight tax – The Obama team should have argued the entire time that the mandate was a tax. This could have potentially pushed the Supreme Court decision off until 2016. At that point, the implementation of the law would be so deeply rooted the Court would find it difficult to throw out the whole law, and Congress would find it difficult to not fix any changes that the Court made. Most importantly, it would have made the government’s legal arguments under Congress’ taxing powers more straightforward. Instead, the government tried to have it both ways. It was stuck arguing on one day that the mandate penalty was not a tax, yet arguing it should be looked at as a tax the next day.
7) Obama administration’s bizarre severability argument – The Obama administration should have made the straightforward argument that the individual mandate is completely severable from the rest of the law. Their position should have been that the mandate makes the law work better and more efficiently but is not technically essential to achieve Congress’ goals, thanks to many other provisions all working toward that end. The government could have then said if the Court found just the mandate unconstitutional, its duty was to practice restraint and only strike down the mandate. That is a clean easy to state position.
Instead, the government argued that the mandate was essential and not completely severable from the rest of the law. It claimed eliminating the mandate would require removing a few other sections, such as the guaranteed issue provisions and the community rating provisions. This creates a complex questions about just how deeply entwined the mandate is and how far the Court would need to cut to remove it. Declaring the mandate partly essential left it up to Scalia’s question “Can you take out the heart of the act and leave everything else in place?” By not arguing the mandate was completely severable, the government clearly strengthened the arguement for those who say the whole law most go if the mandate is removed.
8) Failed to articulate a clear limiting principle – The government could have made the straightforward argument that mandates would impact commerce so are allowed under the Commerce Clause. Instead, the government tried to argue there is some limiting principle that makes this insurance mandate acceptable under the Commerce Clause. but would make almost no other mandates acceptable. This would have been fine if the government had actually come up with with a clear and easy way to explain limiting principle, but it didn’t. When asked to simply explain what the limiting principle should be during oral arguments, Solicitor General Donald Verrilli Jr. failed to articulate an answer.
In the end, the decision about the constitutionality of the individual mandate and the entire Affordable Care Act will come down to the nine members of the Supreme Court. It is ultimately their call, and they will be fully responsible for what they decide. That said, the Democrats had many chances to take steps to prevent the health care law from ever getting to the point where there is even the possibility the Supreme Court could throw it out. The issue only got to this point because Democrats, on multiple occasions, horribly mishandled their job and totally failed to prepare for what was an entirely foreseeable eventuality. There was never a plan B or attempts to preemptively deal with a possible legal challenge.




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Thing is, that wasn’t a mistake. It’s called kicking the can down the road. That’s the way you do business when all you are about is catering to big business.
As I have posted here before, the biggest problem in politics is to believe your own press releases.
Again, this (!) is Obama’s “signature achievement”
I’d say many of these – 1,3, 4, 7 – aren’t mistakes, but instead were on-purposes to benefit their corporate buddies. Particularly with 7, it seemed pretty obvious who the Obama admin was working for (hint: not the people)…7 was such a joke, SCOTUS had to find someone else outside the Obama administration to argue that the mandate was completely severable from the rest of ACA. I don’t think ACA will be thrown out in its entirety, but if SCOTUS was to do that, the Obama admin and the other Democrats in charge would have it coming to them.
Democrats could have listened to the American people
Ah, the bottom line in just about everything in politics.
I don’t see these as mistakes, I see these as deliberate. Part of the program. Collusion. And beyond cynical. Evil.
A plague on all their houses.
Obama is going to end up Mount Rushmore – unlike President Hayes – because he looks forward, not backward! /s
The omission of severability seems likely to have been intentional. I get the sense that the Obama White House calculated that if it was in there it would be too easy for a future Congress to strip it. And that would undermine the deal Obama forged. A deal which is now looking too clever by half.
As for why the mandate was even there while the public option wasn’t allowed to be considered, simple. Obama’s instincts are all directed at striking the perfect middle ground. This nature of his, which looks increasing like a character flaw, led him to find some way to balance changing the health care system while preserving the for-profit skimming insurance industry.
I don’t think the reform was ever about a better health system, it was about creating signature legislation that showcased Obama’s ability to find that perfect compromise. He never set out to fix anything.
Reply to DanR@3:
Yes, it is his big achievement – he occupied a huge chunk of his first term devising and scheming and putting into place precisely this outcome so that the Supremes could continue divesting the American people of their commons and restoring it to its rightful owners, the middlemen plutocrats, and if they did not, at least said middlemen would get their pie eventually, so it’s win-win for the 1% and we can all say yay and vote for the lesser evil, looking forward to more of the same as he turns his eye upon what’s left of the people’s inheritance from FDR.
Not me.
An explicit severability clause was in the bill up until it went to conference. It might have even been in the public version after conference. It was part of the legislative boilerplate.
What happened to it? And who was responsible for dropping it?
I think it highly likely that the Obama Admin knew this would be struck down, and didn’t care.
Imagine the campaign rhetoric in our future.
Obama – “I fought for you, middle and lower class America! I tried to give you healthcare and the big bad Republicans challenged it all the way to the SCOTUS, and those filthy activist judges struck it down! If you reelect me I promise (if any seats on the court open) to appoint stunning liberal champions of justice like Elena Kagen!”
Since we already had medicare all that had to be done was drop the age to sign up five years a year until everyone was covered. One or two simple pages.
The republican light, AKA democrats, are illusionists playing for the masses while kissing republican asses. They all drink together after the “show”.
Diversion . His greatest accomplishment was to only talk about health care taking the air out of criminal prosecution for torturing and starting an illegal war. Notice how the military’s agenda wasn’t slowed down even though we thought electing democrats would end the war first.
We were played .
Of course that would have to coincide with a payroll tax increase on every American every time another 5 year chunk of people were admitted.
And Obama promised not to raise taxes on folks making less than $250k.
A deal which is now looking too clever by half.
I think you are absolutely spot on there. I personally think, in his way, he did think he was addressing a problem, but his method is to try to achieve in so that nothing too much is disturbed. What we have discovered is that all of us, right and left, feel completely manipulated.
Puppethead, I think you underestimate yourself.
While sneaking a smoke out by the back fence just a few minutes ago I witnessed this hawk just hammer a smaller bird, in a scattered flock, and carry it off. I’m wondering if the other birds in the flock knew he/she had a preexisting condition. Which, of course, made it very appealing to the hawk. Because they scattered but then came back to the spot of the carnage and resumed what they were doing as if nothing had happened. Now, if the ACA is thrown out, I’m wondering what happens. I know the hawk will continue his work. I know the other birds, still scattered but appearing unable to find sustenance somewhere else, will still be in a flock, though a smaller one. I’m so glad that nature has this all figured out. Even has our entire country doesn’t. Ah, livin’ the dream! And watching nature work!
Agreed. They just hoped it would last long enough to use it for re-election.
Boxturtle (Medicare for all!)
actually, the no public option was the deal Obama struck with the hospitals. He did not miss any. pharma, insurance industry and hospitals.
The dropping of the public option and adding the mandate were both a result of the Blue Dogs within the Democratic Party. The Blue Dogs made it clear they would not vote for any public option and that the bill would have to be paid for, and the support of the Blue Dogs was essential for any bill to pass. The solution to the pay for was the mandate, because they also refused to support a tax. It was very clear, early on, that the original White House proposals were DOA. And then, big PHRMA made it clear that they would work to oust any politician that would allow the plan to set reimbursement rates for drugs. Money and Blue Dogs doomed the ACA to less than what it could have been. If the SCOTUS strikes the entire bill down it likely means a return to the status quo and nothing will be done for years. As bad as the ACA is, there are good parts (pre-existing conditions, lower rates for women, children on parent’s policies, etc.), the loss of which will seriously affect millions of people.
Obama is neither weak nor stupid. He gets what he wants.
Nothing as closely managed and scrutinized as the ACA bill has any mistakes in it. It contains rescue for the insurance companies, because theirs is a dying business which was Less and less customer year by year.
From the insurance companies point of view, severability of the mandate is a deal killer.
The major omission was ignoring what the majority of the people wanted. And that was no mistake either.
I do wish Jon, that you would get off this fixation of “mistakes” and “weaknesses”.
Mistakes are covered. Now to weaknesses.
What Obama does is let all the agendas be revealed before stepping into the discussion. One is much less of a target if one knows all the factions, before gathering up all the pieces, because it is easier to fix things that to persuade people to do things they are paid not to do.
Initial positions which people have in the health care debate became modified with Obama being neither the opposition nor the bearer of bad news, which gives Obama, and others who manage in this way, the ability to select the least worse outcome for themselves.
To repeat, Jon. Please get off this fixation of “mistakes” and “weaknesses”. Obama shows neither.
You have a point there Dan. “It’s a puzzlement”. (From “The King and I”)
THis “thing” was a train wreck from the beginning. But, can it be fixed? Do we have to start over? Will the 99% get screwed???
Stay tuned for the exciting conclusion after this message from General Electric……
Yes, there are some good parts that will be lost and some millions will just continue on with no help. But when you look at all the things Jon wrote, I get to thinking this simply was not meant to be. There was far too much opposition from the industry, the insurers, the blue dogs and the tea party. Sounds like repeat of earlier battles. We dragged this one out a little longer.
The 99% get screwed with this bill pretty much any way you look at it. We’re still denied the basic human right of being cared for. We still have a for-profit industry that stands as gatekeeper to our medical facilities.
Letting Max Baucus get his grimy hands on the process ought to be at the top of the list of mistakes.
I suppose you are right. BUT…if we can keep the provision where the insurance companies have to include a postage-paid business reply envelope in the statement so we can mail back our $865 a month premium payment FREE, I suppose THAT would be a victory.
If you look at it THAT way is IS depressing.
Dos Equis anyone????
No, he has weaknesses, just like the rest of us. His major weakness so far as governance, is his experience. Had he stayed with the Senate longer, he would be a different president if and when he ran.
Nonetheless, no one holding the number 1 office is immune from the pressures generated by big money. No one.
When the Supreme Court strikes down this pink slime sandwich of a law, Obama will be left with no major accomplishments.
Who was the last president to whiff on an entire term in office?
I felt the same way. I though he COULD have made a good president but he wasn’t ready yet.
The mandate is the corporate bailout part of it. So, my guess is that Baucus got the severability clause dropped because the insurers wanted to make it difficult for the Court to get rid of the mandate without getting rid of the law. They probably viewed the move as a win-win for them, and Obama then bought into it.
Dos Equis anyone????
I’m thinking more along the lines of an entire bottle of Jose Cuervo.
But, but, but……will he get another chance?
I prefer microbrews, like Bridgeport IPA
He might, which would make him the A-Rod of U.S. presidents.
Actually, I think you’re right.
Sometimes I tend to underestimate the gravity of the situation.
Who’s for TEQUILA??????
Maybe we should let him back, change the House back to Demos and do it right.
I agree that Obama and Co. figure the law will be struck down. With my usual cynicism I think they already know what the outcome will be. That’s why there are no contingency plans should it be struck down; it will be “Oh, well we tried”. But I don’t believe it’s beneficial to Obama’s campaign rhetoric; to me it looks like they are handing the Republicans a huge election talking point since everyone hates the mandate. Who can figure out what is really going on at that White House? Obama is the most disingenuous person on the planet.
There go all my trials and tribulations
Sinking in a gentle pool of wine
-Jesus Christ, Superstar
In times of depression I prefer to wallow in Tres Equis.
Obama is the most disingenuous person on the planet.
Only one of many, almost all in politics today.
Jon, whether or not some or all of these were “mistakes,” I think this is a great analysis. That is, if you come at it from the point of view of what did the proponents of the bill do wrong if they wanted this very bill to be constitutional, then I think your list is a very good one.
Also, as you’ve pointed out in earlier analyses, a simple bill extending Medicare to say all people over 45 and under say, 18, passed through reconciliation would probably have been possible, and also would have been easily constitutional.
The ACA is a botch. The stimulus was a botch. The CC Reform Bill was a botch. The Finreg Dodd-Frank Bill was a botch. Obama’s handling of the bank bailouts and the mortgage frauds have been absolutely scandalous, and his performance on Ciivil Rights and Liberties has been terrible. He’s a major disaster! No more corporate Democrats!
This is what you get when you allow a WellPoint VP to write “reform” legislation based on her industry’s desires and Heritage Foundation blueprints, as well as the example set by Mitt Romney.
He’s a corporate shill because in the wake of Citizens United, that’s the only way he can raise the funds to even be on the same playing field with the Republicans. Sad but true.
I voted for Obama in the primaries because he was the only alternative to Hillary Clinton, who was an open and notorious DLCer. What we got instead was a DLCer who lied about it for months.
I’ve given up on the Democratic Party. It is beyond redemption.
Who cares if it had a severability clause?
Sure it would have been a loose legal end that would have looked gret on paper, but the fact is the law can’t function without the mandate, therefore, what good would it have done.
There were no alternative contingency schemes that would have kicked in and kept this thing below the self imposed, bogus, and fraudulent dollar amount.
Remember it took accounting fraud on par with Enron to make the math work.
And in regards the public option–there is no way this would have passed with a public option.
Unless of course, if more criminal bribes were made I’m sure votes would have been swayed.
This entire law and the process that put it on the books stinks like putrid sewage waste.
And that is Obama’s legacy, a failed marxist community organzier with crap all over his hands.
Really if you want to cast yourself in anyway as supporting democratic legislative initiatives, try to remember who “modern” elected democrats like the Clintons and Baucus support: namely the Wall Street finance community and insurance companies. Hillarycare, Obamacare have one uniform result, insurance companies make more money. It is fine that pre-existing conditions are covered or prescription drugs are covered or people can remain on parents insurance until 26 but all of that is severally differnt than watching premiums go through the roof which will continue under the ACA for sure. And to whine that we should have had a public option or Obama dropped the ball on the public option is to plainly ignore that elected democrats did not support the public option in numbers sufficient to pass it.
Thanks for the post. No disrespect intended, but none of what happened with ACA was a “mistake.” These are *features,* not bugs.
As long as Citizens United stands, this is as “good” as it gets. I suppose it’s possible that it could be worse, but I don’t like to send my mind to that bleak dreary horrid place.
EFF Obama and the horse he rode in on. That goes double for all pols, the 1% and all their ass licker lobbyists and “media” types.
The only alternative are the Republicans — who are truly insane — and progressive candidates who either turn into 2%-of-the-vote-also-rans, or wait until they are elected and then immediately morph into… more corporatist Democrats.
These are the reasons I just can’t be bothered to vote anymore. The whole game, from top to bottom, is rigged, and I really don’t believe the system can be changed from within, anymore.
A council of despair, I know. But honestly — what are the options at this stage of the game?
DDay and others have, I believed, shown how required-coverage laws can and do function just fine without a mandate to pay. The actuarial death spiral fantasized about as the reason we had to have the mandate is very much in question.
Generally when someone rushes me into something requiring me (and by proxy here, I’m talking about all US citizens) to pay a lot of money, and tells me “don’t think about it, don’t question it, we HAVE to do this!” my instincts are to put on the brakes, question the entire argument, and ask “oh really? Do we HAVE to do this, or are you just trying to rush me into something I’ll regret later?”
With the mandate, it’s looking more and more like my innate skepticism about this kind of disaster capitalism is spot on.
The public option presents no constitutional problem. No one is suggesting the government can’t offer health insurance or health care. And, of course, the public option was the key to controlling health care costs. The public option was the solution and Obama abandoned it in its sleazy deals with the health care industry, then compounded the betrayal by pretending otherwise. Obama has been hoist on his own petard.
Well, you bring up an excellent point and it is no secret that some people believe that the mandate never had anything to do with healthcare at all, that it was inlcuded simply as an afront to the Constitution.
Could that possibly be tue?
I think yes, given Obama’s past comments about what he perceived as major shortcomings in the vision put forth by the founding fathers–economic equality, social justice, etc.
His views and the views of people who are willing to alter the relatioship between the people and the government are anti-America–there simply is no other way to describe it.
If the mandate were to stand, the law of unintended consequences would fuly assure that the state would be back demanding all sorts of things from the court based on the ACA precedent.
And for the left, at some future date, such power may run counter to its core ideologies: you ust purchase a handgun, etc.
Had the mandate been upheld, Obama’s would have achieved his goal of fundamentally changing this country by dismantling that archaic document called the Consitution, which is the only reason I believe he wanted to be President in the first place.
Perhaps then, Moochelle would be proud of this country.
Obama has been a shill since way before CU – Obama’s backroom corporate deals with Obamacare for instance were done way before CU. CU just lets Obama act more openly like how he truly is.
Those suggesting that Obama only became a corporatist in response to Citizens United are, with all respect, deluding themselves.
Just so sad to see the “public option” placebo still being mourned. Never had a fixed definition, breadth of availability, or possible means of meaningfully competing in a crooked system run by moneyed interests.
Profit needs to be removed from healthcare access. Period. Medicare for All or nationalized medicine. Everything else is just wanking.
Why do you and others here insist on continuing posts like this which pretend the Democrats want things that might be good for the people and bad for a large corporate interest (such as ACA standing without the mandate)? The mandate was the whole point of the law. It was designed as a handout to the insurance companies both in the form of a huge new guaranteed customer base and in the form of a “solution” to the health care issue in this country that allows profit interests to stay at the center of the health care system. The idea that Democratic leaders want this law to stand without the mandate is flawed at its core.
I’m about to stop visiting FDL if you don’t reform the framework you’re using to evaluate issues like this. Start writing about the real world of corrupt politics as it exists rather than a fantasy world in which Democrats are simply inept and in need of better strategy rather than fundamentally corrupt and beyond hope.
Candidate Obama himself said that the mandate wasn’t needed if you offered people good health insurance at a reasonable price – instead President Obama wants to force people to take a bad product at an unreasonable price.
Matthew, many of us have come to the conclusion that the Democrats are the 1919 Black Sox of politics, and not the 1962 New York Mets. To come to that conclusion, we’ve had to overcome a lot of nostalgia, conventional wisdom, and wishful thinking.
“I’m about to stop visiting FDL if you don’t reform the framework you’re using to evaluate issues like this. Start writing about the real world of corrupt politics as it exists rather than a fantasy world in which Democrats are simply inept and in need of better strategy rather than fundamentally corrupt and beyond hope.”
I’ve had similar thoughts about FDL, but not because of Jon. Then again even at the time when healthcare was being debated, FDL (who received significant criticism from Democrats for its coverage) had a certain FP writer on here that was a healthcare shill…so it’s not like FDL’s coverage has significantly changed in having some FPers with a partisan bent.
The Court-appointed lawyer who argued for a mandate severability, Bartow Farr, did a great job. It was fun watching him dismantle the argument that the mandate is “essential”. The second of his two examples clearly was geared to winning the vote of Justice Jon Walker. :o)
Now, if I could turn to the finding, because I think this is the crux of the government’s position and then the plaintiffs pick up on that, and then move —move from that to the rest of the Act… with respect to finding I, which is the one that the government is relying on, and in particular the last sentence, which says “this requirement is essential to creating effective health insurance markets in which guaranteed-issue and preexisting illnesses can be covered… It doesn’t mean, as the Court has said on numerous occasions, absolutely necessary. It means conducive to, useful, advancing the objectives, advancing the aims…
There are several reasons that I would suggest that we would know that… if one looks at the very preceding finding, which is finding H, which is on 42 over onto 43, Congress at that point also uses the word “essential.” In the second sentence it says “this requirement” — and again we’re talking about the minimum coverage provision — is an essential part of this larger regulation of economic activity, which is, by the way, an exact quote from Lopez, in which “the absence of the requirement undercuts Federal regulation,” also an exact quote from Lopez.
But what it is referring to is an essential — an essential part of ERISA, the National Health Service Act and the Affordable Care Act. It can’t possibly be, even the plaintiffs haven’t argued, that those Acts would all fall in their entirety if you took out the minimum coverage provision.
And as a second example of the same usage by Congress, the statute that was before the Court in Raich, section 801 of Title 21, the Court said that the regulation of intrastate drug activity, drug traffic, was essential to the regulation of interstate drug activity. Again, it is simply not conceivable that Congress was saying one is so indispensable to the other, the way the United States uses the term here, so indispensable that if we can’t regulate the intrastate traffic we don’t want to regulate the interstate traffic, either. The whole law criminalizing drug traffic would fall. (emphasis added)
Everyone wanted national health care. The Progressive Left was sold the public option as a start point, a foundation upon which to build and it should have been exactly that. The government health plan would compete with the private insurers, beat those insurers on price and expand until national health care became inevitable. The public option was supposed to be the politcally-palatable compromise and when the public option was betrayed there was nothing left of the compromise, just a health insurers’ dream.
Spot on
indeed, “Lack of severability clause in the law” was pointed out to all at drafting time. was demanded of everyone by myself and others talking to elected and staff in DC, and we never got word on why it was not in the bill.
Conclusion – they planned on losing in the Supreme Court so as to have an election issue in 2012 to “energize” the base. Indeed little of ACA taking effect before 2014 was because they expected it all to be tossed by then.
Obama is a con-job for the corporations that leads otherwise good Democrats around by the nose lest they be accused of trying to hurt the first black president and thus have the Congressional Black Caucus and friends come down on them. Thank God he beat Hillary in the DNC /s (I know of Obama friends and caucus/primary games – and the hotel vote status taking we did in Denver followed by the DNC refusing to allow a vote – that make me doubt he won the primaries – but he did win the DNC).
Vermonts law operates without a mandate and achieves the same participation as the Romney/Obamacare in Mass.
The mandate was without severability so as to sink the law and provide an issue in 2012.
I don’t think you can give Obama credit for laying his own groundwork for failure. The con-game was on before day one. When Obama began his secret negotiations with PhRMA, likely before he was sworn in, Obama showed his true stripes. He offered to preserve Bush’s giveaway of billions to PhRMA by preserving W’s piece of crap prescription drug bill in total. The lobbyists correctly measured Obama and found all he cared about was a deal, not the result. Secret deals with hospitals and insurance companies followed. I submit the lack of severability clause was the result of the lobbyists writing of the bill in case the guaranteed money from the mandate should disappear the whole bill would go away, and I expect Obama blessed it. But Obama was never in front on any part of the bill; he only wanted a deal. I really, really can’t see that he was thinking about any election issue other than saying he got it done.
Jon,
You had me at “4) Dropping the Public Option”
These Democrats are idiots. Not sure they deserve to keep the White House or regain the majority in the House… not these Democrats.
I don’t know much about Vermont’s system, but it goes without saying that the funding scheme, both in scope and scale, of a national system is radically different.
Sure you could get the ACA to work without a mandate, but then the numbers becoming astronomically unworkable, as has been indicated with the recent upwards revision in the cost estimates, inclusive of the mandate.
I argue and debate far left progressives each and everyday, so I know every talking point and every counterpoint to their predicatable arguments.
Most people–savvy people, unaffiliated with any party–recognize that there is little difference between Democrats and Republicans when one strips away the scripted storylines and orchestrated crisis.
Money runs this country, not the political party in power, and any adamant defender of Obama’s record better wake up and stop being a sheep.
If you’re looking for sheeple following Obama, you might want to leave FDL and go elsewhere.
Don’t expect the Obamabots to wake up! They’re in love.
Around here, we refer to the scripted storylines and orchestrated dances between Democrats and Republicans as “kabuki” (don’t think FDL is the only place you will find that term used frequently for the orchestrated bs, btw)
Ugh!! The medicare thing would have been great. But, as you said, all botched, whether out of inexperience or malice aforethought or just the way things were, it was a total screw up. So now I’m left here wondering if I want Romney, with the Paul Ryan future and more conservative supreme choices or stumble bumble along for another four years with this guy. Not a great choice, but you know the tea party with Romney will dismantle all they can of the New Deal/Great Society programs. And it could be, well, a long time for our kids and grandkids to live with. Either one of them will drive me nuts with debt and deficits, the excuse to cut, cut and more cut.
If Dems really wanted to change America’s healthcare system they would challenge the conservatives with a “Last Chance” for “free” market healthcare:
The “free” market has had 6 decades and brought the US the most expensive healthcare system in the world with lesser outcomes compared to all other developed countries. 26,000 to 45,000 Americans die each year due to lack of access to healthcare (the terrorists are not that good at killing Americans).
Let’s give the “free” market two more years to insure everyone, at a cost less than that in France and with the best health outcomes in the world. If the “free” market can’t beat France and their “socialist” healthcare system in cost, coverage and health outcomes, at the end of two-years, Medicare will be offered to all.
Obama couldn’t have accepted a “public option” because it would have raised taxes on those making less than $250,000, and he wasn’t going to do that.
I did not write that Obama did not have weaknesses.
I did write that he is not weak.
There is a world of differences between being weak and having weaknesses.
You made this same type of remark on other posts about how much tax would be needed to pay for a government run insurance program, without ever taking into account that factors that would make the tax burden much less than the burden of paying for private insurance, paying out-of-pocket medical costs, or going without medical care. Do you think those factors wouldn’t matter to people when considering a tax increase?
In 2008 candidate Obama knew everybody hated the individual private insurance mandate. He even mocked it, saying it was like trying to solve the problem of homelessness by mandating everyone to buy a house. What happened to that guy?
Might get a shock to the paycheck when your Medicare payroll taxes go from 3% to 30%.
Our Medical Providers are a also greedy bunch.
He has made major assaults on (what remained of) the Constitution and civil liberties, institutionalized corporate fraud and theft, expanded America’s lethal international footprint. I’m sure I’ve left out other important accomplishments. Jump in, the list is long and growing longer.
I’ve never seen an honest cost analysis of anything. Me personally, I pay between 10 and 15 thousand every single year for health care…this includes premiums and out of pocket costs every year for my family of 6. It is never under 10k and varies each year…maxes out close to 15k in a bad year. What would a single payer option cost if it is ever undertaken?
I have responded to this before.
Here’s some pro-single payer links you may agree with.
Currently, the U.S. health care system is outrageously expensive, yet inadequate. Despite spending more than twice as much as the rest of the industrialized nations ($8,160 per capita), the United States performs poorly in comparison on major health indicators
http://www.pnhp.org/facts/single-payer-resources
Myth: National health insurance would require large new taxes. Fact: No increase in total health spending is needed to finance single payer. The increase in taxes required to finance national health insurance would be fully offset by a reduction in out-of-pocket costs and premiums.
http://www.pnhp.org/single_payer_resources/Myths-and-Facts-on-single-payer.pdf
Using these pro-single payer “facts”, Medicare-for-all could cost as much as $8000 per person per year in additional payroll taxes. My family of 4 is gonna take a hit.
Excellent analysis. Kabuki.
But Obama’s man in SCOTUS (Verrili) said Obama raised taxes on those making less than $250K due to the mandate, so by Obama’s own arguments you could have the PO.
Obama dissing the individual mandate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FHzqY_9IPI
Don’t think alcohol is strong enough. This calls for opiates. Someone call the CIA, I’m sure they’ll deliver.
You quote a document that says the increase in taxes required to finance national health insurance would be fully offset by a reduction in out-of-pocket costs and premiums. I don’t know where you get the calculation that it would cost 8K per person for your family. The only 8K reference in the document that I saw was to the cost of healthcare (not the cost of insurance)now, without any of the cost savings that would be realized with a single payer system.
I’ve laid it out different ways with different numbers, using current Medicare-for-olds figures and extrapolating it to Medicare-for-all.
But people complain that it’s not right, although they don’t provide any better estimates.
So above @ #81 I provided pro-single payer links to estimate that Medicare payroll taxes would have to go from 3% to 30%.
I’ll probably get panned for this too without any better response.
Here’s a novel idea. Divert a portion of the defense budget to healthcare. The health of the population is an investment in the country that should take precedence over unnecessary wars for resources and colonialism.
#1 & #8. I’m not convinced the lack of severability was an oversight. It could have been a brain fart strategy to place more pressure on SCOTUS. A bad mistake, but at the time it might have seemed sensible to whomever. An oversight just doesn’t seem plausible.
#2 What this means is that from late 2009 ACA boosters were SINCERELY cocksure (erroneously) that a challenge would not be let through a courthouse door. At the time I had hunched it was just hubris. But no, they believed it.
#3 & #4. Yes! The error was the lack of a conscientious devil’s advocate.
#5. Would just calling it a tax have been enough? Wouldn’t ACA also need to direct the IRS regarding the tax code for the penalty/tax? Didn’t Breyer touch on this — that’s what I heard (or misheard?)
Maybe this week’s arguments were for show, and none makes a whit of difference. Maybe there will be a surprise in June for that matter.
There is only ONE mistake with the bill… CORRUPTION.
The bill is a colossal piece of corruption crafted by corrupt politicians. It’s nothing more than a kidkback by corrupt politicians in return for campaign contributions.
Our entire Democratic and Republican government it corrupt to the core.
The Amereican people have no government… no representation.
As if Obama cares about his 2008 campaign promises. Puh-lease. Of course, Obama may have reasons but fidelity to his campaign promises is a specious one.
Good question; I was wondering about that too.
That sounds like a valid point.
We currently spend $8160 per capita on health care.
From that same thread you noted above I think you indicated the insurance companies medical loss ratio (percent of money not spent on health care) was 30% and for Medicare this is about 3%.
So let’s reduce $8160 by 27% and our estimate is $6000 per person per year. Other savings like negotiated prices, etc. aren’t really credible as long as we have a year-after-year doc fix for current Medicare.
But Scrambler @ #79 above won’t have to pay $36,000 per year for his family because it’s funded from every workers payroll taxes. So my revised figure is every workers Medicare taxes will go from 3% to 23%.
Plus 12.4% for SS.
Plus regular federal and state income taxes.
And one other thing…
It amazes me that no where in this article is there any suggestion that perhaps the Democrats could have DONE THE RIGHT THING…
You know… like ACTUALLY SOLVE THE PROBLEM.
This is what it’s come to… the only consideration give is to corrupt politicians outmaneuvering other corrupt politicians.
No consideration is given to actually solving anything.
Universal Heath Care is the ONLY real solution. Thats it… it actually solves the problem.
But NO… no mention of an actual solution. Only more game playing by corrupt politicians.
When you were looking at the pnhp site did you look at these studies done over the course of the last 18 years? I just took a quick look, but those that talk of tax increases seem to reference a 7% payroll and 2% income tax increase. However, if, for example, you look at HR 676, a number of funding mechanisms are suggested. Personally, I don’t think I would support a system that provided health insurance and reduced health care and prescription drug costs to everyone be paid for strictly by wage earners.
Spot on…
Keep speaking out.
The wafty “public option” was sold to Professional Left insiders through a process devoid of transparency, and they glibly (and sometimes profitably) sold that hokum to unsuspecting progressives.
Advocates of real reform were routinely met with sharp elbows, stories of amazing Medicare for All activism were met with deaf ears.
This is a fantasy:
Those who took proven solutions off the table and called for the arrest of people (see here and here for examples) who tried to raise them in public forums wouldn’t dare create a “public option” whatzit that would challenge health profiteers. Profit is removed from the equation, or it isn’t. “Public option” mania just provided a shiny object to distract the left from demanding real reform.
I’m glad there are a couple commenters who see through the fantasy framing that seems to be happening all too regularly here…
matthewj…
I cant leave it at that…
Thats one of the best comments I have ever read here. Thanks for having the courage to write it.
My quick look reveals:
financed with a 7 percent payroll tax, a 2 percent income tax, and current federal payments for Medicare, Medicaid, and other state and federal government insurance programs. A 2 percent income tax would offset all other out-of-pocket health spending for individuals.
So we’re at 7% plus 2%, plus 2% plus Medicare’s 3%, plus all the others. How soon do we get to 23% of income?
Blah ble blah blah blah blah ble ble blah blah…
The bill is a corrupt piece of crap… period.
It doesn’t take courage for me to tell the truth. It is sad, but FDL appears to be going downhill with their inability to complete the break with the Democrats and start supporting a realistic strategy to changing the country. FDL is only willing to criticize Democrats but not disown them. Instead of breaking out of the veal pen they appear to be content as the left wing of the veal pen who hypocritically criticizes the rest of the veal pen from time to time…
Well, I think we’ve sidetracked this thread enough for one day, so maybe we can resume again sometime. In your example I think you pulled the same 2% twice, you need to subtract out whatever % of your income you and/or your employer are paying now for insurance and out-of-pocket, and once again, there are difffernt possibilities for funding besides putting most of the burden on the payroll tax. If you decide to respond, I’m glad to give you the last word. I won’t respond, not for any negative reason, just to put it to rest for this round.
You can add 9) They made the enactment date 5 years in the future so that while the law was settled in court nobody would really have much in the way of beneficial experience so they would be unlikely to support it.
Obama’s heart was never in it. He was elected to create a national health care system like Medicare. He chided the mandate and shamed Hillary and McCain with it. Then he got elected and now we know he sold out to the mandate from the very beginning to please the insurers. The public option was itself a compromise and we know Obama never even wanted that.
Obama proved Lincoln right “I don;t know the secret to success but the secret to failure is trying to please everyone.”
We will *NEVER* see this revisited in our lifetime. Mark my words. It took an extremely rare, perhaps unique, perfect storm to even get PPACA and when, not if, the SCOTUS trashes it entirely, there will be no political will or majorities to even consider dog and pony shows. It will be over and done with and the problem will fester out of control until people are literally forced to decide between life’s essentials and medical insurance.
Oh no you don’t. You called this bill a “socialist wet dream” when in fact most of us here think (at best) that it’s a corporatist sell-out that won’t work.
-stewartm
Seems you could cover it with about a 10 % tax on ALL INCOME, regardless of source, pre-income tax as that would in turn be 10 % of GDP.
-stewartm
“A realistic strategy to changing the country”… BRAVO !
Did I say BRAVO… BRAVO!
You lifted a huge weight off my heart… there are actually people who get it… very encouraging… in a time when there is very little to be encouraged about.
Actual change… REAL change… being realistic and honest about our current condition… actually solving our problems… BRAVO !
We are already there not some time in the distant future.
And…
“only willing to criticize Democrats but not disown them”… again… BRAVO!
Way too many so called liberal/progressives are haveing a very difficult time getting off of the baby bottle…
And way too many liberal/progressives are all to willing to kick their supposed “beliefs” into the dirt… in an instant… in order to kowtow to a bunch of corrupt politicians.
Speaking as a cancer survivor, when I read articles like this and when I also read Peak Oil type arguments that the entire economy is going to tank and bring everything – including the healthcare system – down with it, I say – good – bring it on.
After the latest betrayals (the final 1000 ton weight that broke the camel’s back) my opinion is now:
“The only good Democrat is a dead Democrat” (both politicians and supporters).
I too am tired of any “Dog Whistle” crap (mostly non-economic social issues) for the purpose of supporting the Democratic Party (Uniparty).
Thanks.
You’re a lot more civil than most who disagree with me.
O come now. being a Democrat has nothing to do with any sort of economic reform. That’s just window dressing. Being a Democrat instead has everything to do with femi-fem social values and laughing at rough hewn lower middle class folks who like different music and have different feeling about how family life should work.
Would you consider writing a Diary about this (for my FDL)?
I’d like to hear more about this from you and others.
Just to make things clear…
ALL of my comments apply to both Republicans AND Democrats and thier blind worshiping followers.
And I dont wish any of them gone…
I wish they would actually stand up for what they claim to believe in and stops kowtowing to corrupt politicians. Neither of these two groups has any claim to superiority to the other… all are mindless followers of fake politicians… and as such they are doing EXACTLY what the 1% [those who have corrupted our entire government] want them to do. They are not standing up for anything… or standing up to corruption… they are willing participants in it.
Excellent… just in time…
A brainwashed Republican shows up and voices the exact same kind of ignorance as a brainwashed Democrat.
Perfect… thanks dck… lol.
Not only worrying that these features of the legislation keep getting called “mistakes” by bloggers here but that the posts in which the claims are made are front-paged over and over. Combine that with the constant front paging of “OMG, did you see what that republican pres candidate did/said?” blogs and a worrying picture of FDL in this election season emerges.
“Mistake” #7 gives the lie to the whole thing. The point of the ACA was not to reform health care in a way that benefits regular people. The point was to do a giant favor for the insurance industry and guarantee that their campaign contributions flow to Ds instead of Rs, at least for a while. That’s it. That’s why the administration’s chosen representatives argued, when you strip it down, that if there’s no mandate they’re certainly not going to fight for the survival of the ACA.
Finally: I don’t recall the Public Option as a starting point at all. It was the result of institutional Democrats negotiating the progressive wing of their party down from Single Payer.
He also called Obama a marxist.
I wish.
Why are you bringing up Republicans? Of course, they are subhuman filth. But it is the same old Democratic Party supporting narrative (probably by accident) that we were complaining about. Hey look over there at those Republicans!
But I disagree Republican voters are less corrupt (less cognitive dissonance) than CURRENT Democratic Party stalwarts. Generally, Republicans have despicable beliefs and they support despicable politicians with those beliefs. Democratic voters have “better” principles that are “advertised” in the Democratic Party platform, but these principles are repeatably betrayed by the despicable and corrupt Democratic Party politicians. Thus to be a Democratic Party voter you must support corrupt liars and con men who stealthily fight against your interests.
FYI: I’m a Democrat
And if you’re so blasted smart, then prove it. You’ve been called.
Please don’t pick on The Conehead of Certainty. It could ruin his math equations and I was looking forward to that formula, too. ” The pencil snapped, the paper tore. Alas, The Conehead wasn’t so certain, anymore “
I think independentvoternews” didn’t realize your comment was a snark.
Thank you. I’m glad that someone cares about something other than flogging the usual suspects.
9) Sending the not ready for prime time Solicitor General Donald Verrilli in to defend the Gov’t position. a second string high school debater could have done a better job.
Stumbling, bumbling and fumbling. a fitting synopsis to the whole stinking enterprise of Obamney Care.
Great recap Jon. Obamacare versus single payer/Medicare for all is like the Gordian Knot story in reverse. Make something so complicated and confusing and then be shocked when the Sheeple are hostile.
Obama and his team didn’t calculate real politik into their actions. It cost them dearly in Nov. 10 and now it is going to be a huge rally flag for the moribund Repubs when this is tossed on the dung heap this summer
That would have been stupid of him.
Like I said, he’s been called.
Nope… Democratic followers only pretend to have those “principles”…if they actually had those “principles” they would not support the Democratic party… because the Democratic party does not have those prinicples.
Same with the Republicans and their supposed “principles”.
Democratic and Republican politicians have no principals. The only thing they believe in is corruption and looting the country. It’s a con job by both partys… they are working together.
lol
Did you indicate stark in your comment?
We have all seen a gazillion comments just like that all over the internet… make by brainwashed Democratic and Republican followers.
Thanks for your imitation.
Excellent comment that should be carefully digested by all who wish to see this site thrive and prosper. There is only so much of this kind of misinformation interested citizens can take, and if it is going to continue in this vein, it will smack of collusion with the PTB, and that would be a huge shame in light of the very good and informative aspects of the site and some worthy diaries being hosted here.
It is really not enough to claim to be encouraging a diversity of views. There is such a thing as truth as well as comity. I realize I am biting the hand that feeds me, and I apologize, but commenters such as sapphirebullets are correct, as the diaries with lengthy comments of past days indicated. The sad thing is that there are few places for people such as those commenting on this post to go to have discussions in depth. But we are indeed idiots if we do not fight back against what appears to be mainstream on FDL – not getting personal but echoing comments on this thread.
The Democratic party is a lost cause, I do believe, for reasons others have given here. It is past time we sought other remedies; they are not it.
I agree.
Sorry, I’ve wasted enough time writing diaries on here in the past, some of which were quite popular. Nothing happens. The leaders of the site simply do not wish to change. They do not want to try anything outside of criticizing Democrats. What a wasteful bore…