I’m beginning to suspect the Republican’s decision to hold the debt ceiling hostage to demand only big cuts in spending and President Obama’s almost enthusiastic desire to play along was a way to deal with the problem of the nonexistent bond vigilantes by actively creating some.
Most of the elites in Washington would love to use this moment of economic downturn and the resulting drop in tax revenue in classic shock doctrine fashion to create deficit hysteria so they can justify cuts in the social safety net that will hurt regular Americans. Cuts to programs such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Pell Grants. These are cuts that would normally be unacceptable, but by claiming a crisis, it necessitates a bipartisan grand bargain, and they can act in opposition to the will of the people while avoiding any democratic accountability for their actions.
Their biggest problem is that the bond market refuses to play along by creating a crisis to justify the immediate push for austerity, so our politicians will have to create it.
As Paul Krugman pointed out, despite the Wall Street Journal warning us for three years about the impending attack of bond vigilantes, 10-year bond rates are still down at 3.11 percent.
Here is where holding the debt ceiling vote hostage in this particular negotiation comes into play. If Congress puts off any vote long enough, our politicians could actually make some bond trader modestly nervous, not about any fundamental problems in our economy, but about our political leaders’ willingness to mess around with their bonds for the sake of political showmanship. This could eventually create a modest uptick in bond yields, which the deficit hysterians will then use as their “proof” that the long foretold attack of the bond vigilantes has begun.
When the actual lack of bond vigilantes threatens to ruin our political leaders’ immediate austerity plans, it seems they are prepared to work to create them.




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Thanks Jon, excellent reporting.
James K. Galbraith has an interesting new paper out, Is the Federal Debt Unsustainable?
The CBO’s assumption, which is that the United States must
offer a real interest rate on the public debt higher than the real
growth rate, by itself creates an unsustainability that is not
otherwise there. It also goes against economic logic and is belied
by history. Changing that one assumption completely alters the
long-term dynamic of the public debt. By the terms of the
CBO’s own model, a low interest rate erases the notion that the
US debt-to-GDP ratio is on an “unsustainable path.”
The prudent policy conclusion is: keep the projected interest
rate down. Otherwise, stay cool. There is no need for radical
reductions in future spending plans, or for cuts in Social
Security or Medicare benefits, to achieve this.
From 1942 to 1951, the Fed had an interest rate cap (short term at 0.375%, long term at 2.5%), it maintained this by market tap operations (any long bond auction that hit 2.5% and wasn’t selling out, the Fed would step in to buy). There’s no reason at all to sell long bonds, so if Tsy only issued 3-month T-bills and the Fed revived the 0.375% cap, the CBO’s $5 trillion in projected net interest payments (at 5.0% avg interest rate) this decade suddenly drops by more than 90%.
Is hate radio trying to incite people to violence again about this topic? Are the Righty Blogs doing the same? Wallstreet Journal customers tend not to riot. Damm I should have kept my who tips the delivery guy list and crosschecked it with what paper they bought that data would now be interesting. Chicago Tribune, WSJ, NYT, FT,IBD, 2 Korean Papers, and a free Spanish Paper plenty of Data I could now use (sigh)
I think the GOP wants its potential shooters to get mobilized on any issue they push remember they started bringing guns to healthcare TownHalls. The GOP needs to counter act the Wisconsin Protests now and show that yes they can bring out bigger crowds than we can.
Bond going up however are a tough sell they want to force Dems in some states to raise taxes and then send their shooters out after them before the election.
Larry Kudlow watchers just influence talking heads on tv the GOP needs popular hysteria and proof of that is rallies and of course nuts with guns.
Sell all the Gold in Fort Knox give it to T-Bill holders at market prices and you knock off over a trillion in debt. Glen Beck viewers would welcome the move…until they figure out world gold prices would crash. Screwing Glen’s people is win/win for Obama.
The fed … along with their masters, the banks … were essentially rigging the bond market by printing up money to buy bonds to keep yields low. (http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2010/1103/Federal-Reserve-to-buy-600-billion-in-bonds-as-hedge-against-deflation). Now that qe2 is over, they’ll also do it by printing up money and handing it to the banks and then basically instructing them to buy treasury bonds. Hell, the fed also rigs the stock market. Does it make any sense that it would be up from when the Japanese quakes happened?
The bond vigilantes have been usurped by the fed. There are no markets in the u.s. that are free any longer … rigging them has become a matter of national security. Protecting the rich’s wealth and preferably making them richer has become a matter of national security.
Z
Hate to rain on your parade, TCU, but I think that, even though the T-GOPers will go to their grave hating Obama with a hatred worse than even mine, Obama actually sees “Glenn’s people” as his real constituents (eg, amongst the “small people.” Let me clarify that Obama’s main constituents are the upper 1%).
Everything that Obama does is, if the T-GOPers would ever take their blinders off & actually think for themselves, what the T-GOPers really want. I have yet to see anything, absent signing the Lilly Leadbetter bill way back when, that Obama has done that’s what I want or why I voted for him (holding my nose).
Thanks for the post. What you posit wouldn’t surprise me.
Of course this debt ceiling thing is nonsense, but I think Hate Radio/TV has done a masterful job at convincing conservatives that the Fed Budget is *EXACTLY* like your household budget.
Yesterday there was a “masterful” letter to the editor in my local nooz paper from a conservative citizen, who went to great lengths to compare the Fed budget to his household budget. I could smell the rightwing talking points wafting off the page.
No, the Fed budget is NOT like your household budget, but the T-GOPers have bought that canard hook, line & sinker.
Hold onto your hats, cuz it’s gonna be a bumpy ride…
It is astounding that Obama has become as untrustworthy as the Right Wing. We are truly on our own. And the sooner we realize it and act accordingly the better.
Jon, The argument makes sense, but I think it is just a bit too sophisticated for the current crop of Republicans. Plus, the bond market can see through these games, so it wouldn’t work even if they tried.
I guess we can’t afford the wars then, drug and slaughter.
You know I think things logically. The actual world is illogical and getting things done requires either surrender to the demons of illogic the Obama method.
Or working to change people’s minds.
I admit Obama neither wants to nor thinks he can change things but we do need to explore options to give people hope we can’t let Surrender Obama and the GOP control the choices presented to voters.
No kidding ~ we sure can’t afford all that. Why can’t the Replublicks (or the Democrats) see that???????? [rhetorical question]
*Finally* somebody understands! The Right is fighting a two pronged battle. If their blackmail works, the Democrats cave in, incur the wrath of their base, lose the next election, and austerity is achieved in two waves, now, and much more after 2012 under Republicans.
*But*, if their immediate blackmail fails, then they can *force* a default this summer, and the sabotaged credit rating of the USA will force high bond interest rates, which they will use to force immediate austerity down our throats. The elite is willing to endure the chaos this will unleash. Many are even positioned to try to profit from it.
All one has to do is to look at Greece, where high interest rates are the hammer being used to achieve austerity.
And Knut (at 8), the bond market won’t “see through” an actual default if it comes to pass. There will then be a major reaction, which the austerians are counting on …
Testing.
Z
“This could eventually create a modest uptick in bond yields, which the deficit hysterians will then use as their “proof” that the long foretold attack of the bond vigilantes has begun.”
I think this underestimates the skullduggery. The austerians are willing to force an actual default, with more than just a “modest uptick” in bond yields. That modest uptick would/will come prior to default, after weeks of stonewalling.
They believe they can win either way …