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The latest National Intelligence Estimate on Afghanistan has inspired me to write a modern parable for the season:
The parable of the really cheap furniture you need to self-assemble
Let’s say, for Christmas, one of your gifts was a new, extra-wide dresser, but it was a cheap knockoff that required you to do the assembly yourself. And, in doing so, you discover that, in addition to the parts being extremely low-quality, ill-fitting, and easily breakable, there are a critical parts missing. The parts missing are the L37s metal drawer tracks.
Despite missing the essential L37s metal drawer tracks, you still try to put the dresser together. You spend hours working on it. You eventually call your brothers to come help you, and when that doesn’t work, you call your friends to help you. Yet, despite all the time you are putting in, you still can’t build the dresser because you are missing critical components.
Eventually, you call the manufacturer. They tell you the dresser won’t work with out the L37s, and they inform you that they have none left to send you as replacements. Since the L37s is a specialty part, there is nowhere else to buy them.
There are only two choices: you can waste the rest of your Christmas vacation trying to do the impossible, or accept that without the L37s, the task is hopeless, give up, and spend your vacation with your family.
In this parable, Afghanistan is the dresser and the L37s metal drawer tracks, the critical pieces necessary to build the dresser, is Pakistan’s strong engagement against the Taliban.
According the NIE, we can’t “win” in Afghanistan unless Pakistan strongly goes after the Taliban in the border region. The thing is, we simply don’t have this help from Pakistan, and we are not going to get it.
We can spend another six months, another four years, or another decade trying to put together this set of dressers, but it’s not going to work because we are simply missing the elements needed to make it work.
While it might seem crazy to not spend your Christmas vacation with your children because you wasted it trying to assemble a dresser that lacks critical parts, it is monumentally more insane that our government is forcing so many service members to miss this Christmas with their families so that they can be part of an equally unachievable endeavor.
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Missing parts and no reason to be there. Thanks, Jon.
And thanks to all the writers, diarists, commenters, mods, and those who sweep after we have made a mess. It can’t have been easy to keep writing through the madness of the holiday and yet we continue to get the news we need. Thanks to everyone at FDL for being here.
Thank you for the power of truth…At first glance I thought dresser was about apparel. So a nice twist. The definition of insanity to keep doing the same ol’ thing. What is particularly sad here, however, is the enormous tragedy in lives and resources; what more constructive things our country could be doing. Whatever we call nation-building is a farce when the other folks want us out…or dead. Let’s try to focus on a better New Year in the very near future. Thanks for the work. We need the reminder.
The only trouble I have with the parable is that it seems to blame the Pakistanis rather than elected Federal officeholders and their sycophants who dreamed up, ordered the invasion, and have continued with an occupation bent on becoming a corrupt system similar to America’s own.
Been sayin’ it as long as I’ve been around here at FDL and, sadly, it’s as timely now as it was the first time I typed it:
TROOPS
HOME
NOW
Merry Xmas, everyone.
I learned yrs ago that trying to enjoy xmas alone was impossible unless I just ignore it altogether.
Seems the Pentagon has chosen to ignore the misery of those being sent to die, on either side. Obama may eventually bring the troops closer to home but I didn’t listen to NORAD last night for the time when Santa would be dropping off that gift.
President Obama is magical. His recent victories against the Dread Pirate Rob…, er, the Republicans just prove he can do anything. Especially win against the “terrists”. Quit your hatin’.
Do not forget also that your ‘friends’ (Karzai and all the warlords we support) regularly disassemble, misplace or even break the parts of the dresser.
I believe that one of the missing L37s is in the drawer that is labeled “US involvement with India” it is one of the missing pieces. Pakistan and India are at a state of war over the Kashmir region. When you choose to support my enemy do not expect cooperation from me. Another missing L37 is lost in the fact that the touted training of Afghanistani police and other special troops is being done by Indian troops. None of police or special troops being trained are Pashtun, mortal enemies of the Indians. So I believe that the L37s were deliberately thrown away in order to insure that nothing works. Except more weapon sales!!! Best tactics state that if you can get both of your enemies to fight each other and when you can supply weapons to both sides makes you the winner. I agree with
TROOPS
HOME
NOW
Best wishes to all…
There is another solution.
Take 1% of that $160 Billion we are planning to spend in the next year Afghanistan, and spend it on Afghani roads, rail, schools and clinics.
Take the the remainder of the %160 Billion, 99%, $158.4 Billion and spend it on roads, rail, schools and clinics in the US.
Not only is the dresser missing parts but after you assemble it with spit and chewing gum you realize that what the Mrs. really wanted this year was a mahogany armoire. She wanted the dresser 8 years ago.
Spend American tax dollars on American infrastructure? Too much eggnog. You are cut off.
Also, your glum and dour neighbor across the street still has the remains of the dresser he tried to assemble twenty years ago, rusting and rotting in his front yard as he laughs it up in the back yard with vodka and supermodels, giggling at your efforts.
In response to @ 3
Agree. The Pakistani politicians (not Pakistanis) and top Pakistani Military Brass is to blame for playing for money. They are milking the cash cow (US tax payer) left and right. Those elements are fully aware of the fact make hay while the sun shines. When US decides to pull out the golden goose will be gone too.
I was reading a lovely article about young students generating a peer-reviewed study of bees and foolishly thought I’d read the comments. Behold the lib basher!
Merry Christmas to each and every one of us one-dimensional douche bags! 8-)
Uh huh. Yup. Affirmative. That’s the ticket Teddy.
Bring ‘em home now!
Happy happy to all at FDL and to Pups everywhere.
Peace, bluejeansntshirt
Ding! Who cares that the dresser can’t be assembled, as long as we have fools lined up to buy them?! How about we make our New Year’s resolution: We were duped. We elected the wrong person. We will be more careful next time to listen to WHAT the candidate is saying rather than HOW he/she is saying it.
Lol, not only that but you are so focused on your dresser that you don’t notice your wife, the sole money maker in the family, is now sleeping with a few of the neighbors and your house is crumbling down around you. Hope the dresser is big enough to live in.
The Pakistani ISI, which actually runs Pakistan, will never allow the USA to win this war. The Haqquani network which hates the USA, and controls much of the Taliban, will never be defeated. It’s in Iran’s self-interest to assist anybody who wants to defeat the USA in Afghanistan to do that. Including al Qaeda, the Taliban, the Haqquani network, the ISI, etc. Yesterday Karzai told the Taliban to open an office in Turkey so that formal discussions could begin on ending the war. One wonders if President Shameful is even aware of that development? Peace
You’re missing the fairly obvious point that it’s not about being able to conveniently store your clothes in easily opened and closed drawers, it’s about continuing to provide support for the dresser assembling industry.
The Chinese will gladly lend us $150 billion dollars each and every year until they’ve loaned us enough to forclose on the entirety of the country. Kentucky Mao’s Chicken anyone? Peace
A parable inspired by actual events, perhaps?
There’s a happy ending, though. Someone completely unqualified to manufacture anything will come along with a “plan” to build L37s, which will give all those owners of the not-quite-assembled dressers hope that someday they can clean up the floors of their garages. At least, they’ll have that hope for a few years.
But what’s life without hope?
Why the US is in Afghanistan
The US intended to go into South Asia anyhow, for reasons explained below, but the 9/11 events served the purpose for going in, and recenly serve to be a continuing reason for staying despire the setbacks.
President Obama, March 27, 2009: “to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future.”
And on December 1, 2009: “We must deny al Qaeda a safe haven. We must reverse the Taliban’s momentum and deny it the ability to overthrow the government.”
The December 2010 assessment stated: “And in Afghanistan, the momentum achieved by the Taliban in recent years has been arrested in much of the country and reversed in some key areas, although these gains remain fragile and reversible.”
And: “This review also underscores the importance of a sustained long-term commitment to the region – in Pakistan, by way of our growing strategic partnership . . .Progress in our relationship with Pakistan over the last year has been substantial, but also uneven. We worked jointly in the last year to disrupt the threat posed by al-Qa’ida, and Pakistan has made progress against extremist safe havens, taking action in six of seven agencies of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.”
Ooops — an “uneven” partnership with Pakistan.
“However, better balance and integration of the various components of our strategy will be required to reach our objectives. For instance, the denial of extremist safe havens will require greater cooperation with Pakistan along the border with Afghanistan.”
Better balance and integration. What to do? “In 2011, we must strengthen our dialogue with both Pakistan and Afghanistan on regional stability.”
A strengthened dialogue — that’s it! That’ll bring better balance and integration. Who writes this stuff that gets people killed?
In the meantime US troops are being killed and injured by elements including the Taliban which are supported by Pakistan.
As General McChrystal assessed in 2009: “Afghanistan’s insurgency is clearly supported from Pakistan. . .and are reportedly aided by some elements of Pakistan’s ISI [Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence ].”
That accounts for the “uneven” partnership with Pakistan. But why is Pakistan supporting elements who are killing US troops?
General McChrystal again: “Indian political and economic influence is increasing in Afghanistan, including significant efforts and financial investment. In addition, the current Afghan government is perceived by Islamabad to be pro-Indian. While Indian activities largely bemnefit the Afghan people, increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions and encourage Pakistani countermeasures in Afghanistan or India.”
That accounts for it. Pakistan’s arch-enemy India’s influence is increasing in Afghanistan, and Pakistan doesn’t like it. Pakistan doesn’t want a government allied with India — like the present government of Afghanistan — on its western border. India is much larger and stronger than Pakistan as it is, and if Pakistan were surrounded its security would be in great danger.
This explains why the US relationship with Pakistan is “uneven,” and why the US partner Pakistan is supporting the killing of US troops.
Well send in the Marines!
We did. The Marines are now in Delaram, located in rural southwest Afghanistan. Are the Marines involved in counter-insurgency nation-building? No. How about counter-terrorism? No. The Marines are securing a highway junction.
The US Marines are in far-off Delaram because the town sits at one end of a new road connecting Afghanistan’s main highway to Zaranj near the Iranian border. The Zaranj – Delaram road, which has been built by India’s Border Roads Organization, is part of a larger Indo-Iranian project that will connect Kandahar and Herat to Iran’s Chahbahar Port on the Persian Gulf. The project will provide Afghanistan a supply route to lucrative markets while reducing the country’s utter dependence on Pakistan (and the new route is 434 miles shorter than the route through Pakistan). The road/rail project is also a vital supply line for Indian troops operating in Afghanistan.
Reducing the country’s utter dependence on Pakistan! That’s good! Good for India, but bad for Pakistan.
There were about 4,000 Indians engaged in such projects — being implemented as part of India’s development assistance to the tune of $1.3 billion to Afghanistan. This is being done with the support of the US.
What the United States wants is to establish India as a great power in the region to counterbalance China, and at the same time try to beat Pakistan into an obedient lesser partner. The overall goal is to continue instability thus favoring a continuing military presence.
Dr Maria Sultan, head of the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad, said in an interview in Jang:
“The United States wants to assign more roles to India in Afghanistan. However, instead of proving helpful, the Indian role has becoming a cause in further deepening the crisis. The terrorism spread by the Indian intelligence agency, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) in Pakistan through Afghanistan continues in the name of India-US cooperation in war on terror.”
George Perkovitch:
“Pakistan is willing to fight until the last Taliban or coalition foot soldier falls in order to pursue its interests in Afghanistan, while India is willing to fight to the last American to keep Pakistan from exerting indirect control over a future Afghan government. Neither position serves American interests.”
Nicholas Burns, US State Department: “India has a major role to play in Afghanistan… I think the Indian role in helping Afghan villagers and helping the Afghan government has been very positive. I don’t think we (can) say India cannot participate in rebuilding of Afghanistan because of differences with Pakistan.”
“US Ambassador Holbrooke assured [India FM] Rao that he is in favor of Indian assistance programs in Afghanistan and is not influenced by what he hears in Islamabad.” — wikileaks
President Hamid Karzai has said Kabul would continue to build on the relations with New Delhi which were in the interest of the war-ravaged country. Stating that Afghanistan is a sovereign state, he added that his Government has the right to decide what is in the best national interest of the country and no one can and none so far have been able to dictate those terms to its people.
So welcome to Afghanistan, GI, and play your part in big-power chess. Remember: “Neither position serves American interests.”
Another factor is the TAPI gas pipeline. On December 13, 2010 the presidents of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, along with India’s petroleum minister, signed an inter-governmental agreement pledging to construct a 1,735-kilometer natural gas pipeline connecting all four states.
The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline would supply 33 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas a year from the Dauletabad gas fields to Pakistan and India via Afghanistan’s volatile southern provinces, according to the semi-official Turkmenistan.ru website. In doing so, Kabul could reap billions.
The TAPI Turkmenistan-India pipeline, by the way, will parallel the Herat – Kandahar highway which goes through Delaram, where the US Marines have a new base! How thoughtful. All of the area must “be controlled” for the benefit of India while elsewhere in Afghanistan US troops are mixing it up with Pakistan-supported resistance fighters.
That’s why we fight, and it has nothing to do with al Qaeda which is but a minor distraction compared to the big-power strategies that involve the US, India and China, and natural gas.
The US Senate has promoted the Sik Road Strategy for Central Asia. Bill extract:
“The United States has significant long-term interests in the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. These interests concern security, economic development, energy, and human rights. Accordingly, it is the policy of the United States to seek political and economic stability in the social development of, and cooperative relationships with, the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, including by providing assistance in accordance with the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (22 U.S.C. 2151 et seq.).
“Consistent with the purposes of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, it is the policy of the United States to promote and protect the interests of United States businesses and investments in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.”
The business of America is business, and the US military is now itching to go into Pakistan to clear up that particular problem..
Good one. LOL.
The US military should be disbanded and rebuilt from the top down. We should beging by replacing the Commander-in-Chief with an avatar acceptable to at least 51% of the American public. Peace
One look at that photo, and the memories of the crap that goes together with those little tap-in gizmos and the screws that are supposed to twist into those, IF the sawdust holds together in the process, yes, I have seen it, done it. So sorry, this is not a way to spend this or any day or days.
Can’t you return it tomorrow? I hope so.
Too bad we can’t just get the troops home through the “return” line.
Particleboard makes me sad. So does any kind of war. So do the best and the brightest who always try to make a logical argument for war, fail to persuade, and go to war anyway.
Furniture depreciates fast, so there if you are on a strict budget you needn’t avail yourself to Ikea and assemble it yourself furniture. Buy used, from someone who’s moving and can’t take their $1,000 dresser with them and will sell it for $60. I don’t know if this can be an analogy for endless war, but it is a solution.
Not to mention that just by sustaining the attempt to convert the ~~~Edited by Moderator. No need for ethnic slurs~~~ to Jeffersonian capitalism, we’re pissing off enough of them to ensure that there will be no great shortage of them willing to kill our troops, and anyone supporting us.
“…with Vodka and supermodels…”
Teddy’s on fire today! :o)
There is nothing that Pakistan can do to cause the American cluster fuck in Afghanistan to be “successful”. Nothing.
The AfPack war is completely meaningless murder for the sake of murder. To be successful you must first have a mission.
The Pakistanis have as much reason to want us out of the region as the Taliban. The hated mercenary legions of American Empire should be removed from the region and disbanded for ever. The whole world would rejoice.
I would add; the sustaining of this lunacy did not descend on us in a shower of golden Jesus-piss.
Let us use the “O” word…
Obama.
No serious person would give up trying to assemble the dresser in less than 13 years.
Ding!