President Obama, in an attempt to sell the deal he cut on extending the Bush tax cuts, keeps holding up the one-year payroll tax holiday as his big win. Defenders of the deal, such as Ezra Klein, act like without this deal, there would be no way Obama could have gotten this payroll tax holiday. I think this is an inherent misunderstanding of the Republican position. Since well before this deal, I thought a payroll tax holiday was going to be one of the few big bipartisan things Obama and John Boehner would agree to. I have zero reason to believe Obama couldn’t have gotten the payroll holiday later as a stand-alone bill, completely separate major concessions to the GOP.
The payroll tax holiday was never a progressive idea. It is rather weak stimulus and could work to undermine the program. The idea was advocated by the conservative American Enterprise Institute and Michael Boskin, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. The Republican Governor of Indiana, Mitch Daniels was, only two months ago, promoting a temporary, one-year “payroll tax holiday” in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. Even Mitch McConnell came out in support of a temporary payroll tax cut as an alternative to the stimulus bill in 2009.
Am I honestly to believe that in, say, February of 2011, if President Obama was to take the stage with Mitch Daniels and a bunch of conservative scholars to announce his support of a payroll tax cut, the Congressional Republicans would say no? I just don’t see Republicans being put on the spot and deciding to oppose a tax cut for working families.
Policy aside, good negotiations don’t result in one side claiming they won a “concession” from the other side if it was something the other side already wanted. That is a sign of a terrible negotiator. It is silly to consider it a “success” for Obama because there is every reason to suspect in the near future Obama couldn’t have gotten Republicans to support a stand-alone payroll holiday bill without any deal.
To add insult to injury, even if you think the payroll holiday is a good idea for the middle class, Obama “won” only a one-year tax cut for working families in exchange for a two-year cut for the ultra-wealthy. Clearly, two is a bigger number than one.





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The payroll tax holiday is not progressive. It’s a flat 2% tax cut up to $106,800 per wage earner, but high income families usually have two wage earners, such that the median household gets a tax cut of $1000, while the top 5% (earning $180,000 or more) get a tax cut averaging $3650. If Republicans won’t support that, it’s a sign that the balance of power in government is completely out of whack.
The first step in dismantling SS. To mix metaphors, this abortion needs to be strangled in its crib.
Oy, dya think? This is the most corrosive & subversive measure yet advanced by O.
Not to mention that several GOP senators have already stated that they plan to paint the expiration of the payroll tax holiday a year from now as an Obama tax increase on working families. And since the timing for this will be right as all the Republican candidates are jockeying for position just ahead of the caucuses and primaries, the airwaves will be filled with these cries of how Obama is the enemy of working people. Once again, we see another example of how this administration has no idea as to how real-world politics is played.
Jon,
You’re suggesting that Obama is a leader who could have gotten a far better deal had he made any effort whatsoever.
Well, if Lawrence O’Donnell’s moronic indignation has convinced me of anything, it’s that there’s no reality in which Obama could have done anything other than bend over the way he did. And we should all be happy with the shit deal Obama’s selling us because the one alternative – in O’Donnell’s mind there’s only one alternative – would be far shittier.
/s
Seriously, does O’Donnell know nothing of politics?
On the blogger call with a Senior Administration Official, I pointed out that the payroll tax cut was a Republican policy, and the SAO didn’t disagree.
He’s fiercely advocating (for the destruction of SS).
But there are a lot of low-information voters who just won’t get it.
Make that low-information editorial writers .
The kid is bright, but way too naive and intellectually neutered by inside-the-beltway dogma. Maybe he’ll come around at some point, but I’m guessing….prolly not. The limo rides, the best tables in Manhattan, the rubbing elbows with power-players, the being a TeeVee Talking Head / Infotainer…all that shit appears way too seductive for him…like dragging around an IV drip loaded with pure, Hamid Karzai-grade heroin.
Are you kidding? He knows absolutely everything about politics. After all, he’s actually been in the room when the negotiations were taking place. That makes him far more insightful than we mere mortals could ever hope to be. I don’t know about you, but I’m certainly impressed. /s
Nice of Obama to include the COLA-makeup $250 check for oldsters, the disabled, and widows and orphans in his super-wonderful deal.
Or, you know, not. Since it went down to defeat in the House today.
He or she figured it better to remain mute on the subject…which is obviously an admission that you drilled right into a nerve…
Republicans would LOVE to suck money out of SS for a “tax holiday”. I believe they would go for anything that sucks money out of SS. And in these difficult times, a lot of people will go for it, then they’ll get hooked on it, then SS withers on the vine. Obama is not this dumb. He playing for the other team and the democratic party better primary him if they don’t want the brand completely destroyed.
We can haz cola?
All your cola are belong to us, damnit.
The basic conflict is ‘true’ reality vs. ‘political’ reality.
This may be the best, or close to the best, tax deal that can be made. The Liberal/ Progressive ire aimed at the President is because he did not punish the Republicans for their recalcitrance, instead saving his barbs for Liberal/Progressive that elected him.
. Um…yeah. However,
I’m certainly no expert in parliamentary rules of the Senate. However, may I ask a question? What stopped the President from publicly and repeatedly calling out (to the point of humiliation) the Repugnants (etal) for seriously advocating policies that were clearly designed to favor the top 2%. He might also have made it exceedingly clear that the deal was quite literally insane from an economic perspective. There was, after all, a virtual army of professional economists who would have backed him up on that assertion. And finally, whey did he wait until the last 5 minutes before whipping out the wimping out? He could have started banging this drum months ago. And like it or not, that’s what it takes to get through the din of the MSM. It’s like using a hammer and chisel to take down a large mountain. Doable, but it does take time.
I would also submit that when he uttered that “we’re playing the long game” bullshit in order to diss the dirty fucking hippies, it could easily have been pointed out that the dirty fucking hippies were, in fact, the ones playing “the long game,” whereas the WH was working a deal that would have blown up in their faces about a year from now.
As I said, I’m no expert, but this stuff just doesn’t seem that difficult to me. In fact, it seems pretty damn basic. I’m probably missing a lot, but there ya go…
Does Obama even do ‘progressive’, or is it just one of his oratorical devices?
Obama does progressives like Debbie does Dallas.
But he did succeed in diverting general tax revenue to Social Security, thereby, establishing that Social Security is already not self supporting and is a drain on the general fund. This will make it easier for Catfood Commission II to gut it, which is a win for Obama’s true agenda.
Soooo, “concerns” about blowing a huge hole in the federal budget over the next ten years have gone bye-bye, because this Obama/Republican “compromise,” with all the additional tax-reductions added, will blow an even bigger hole in the federal budget…increasing the projected $3 to $4 trillion hole to what?
Of course, this works to the benefit of the Republicans because, if this “compromise” is passed and signed into law, they will immediately start declaring that government programs and services will have to be cut, cut, cut to fill in this gaping federal budget hole.
And Bowles’ and Simpson’s Cat Food Commission will chime in, recommending even more cuts to “balance” the federal budget after all the budget-busting deficit-exploding Bush era tax cuts are extended, along with other tax cuts added to “sweeten” the deal, further crippling the fiscal future of our nation’s children…at least those who are poor and middle-class.
Not.
No meaningful attempt was made to get a better deal. A reasonably committed President could have done better by making public appearances denouncing the idiocy of the Teaparty-terrified Beltway Republicans. Quite to the contrary, this incredibly inept, arrogant President didn’t even consult leaders of his own party before releasing his “plan,” despite the fact his plan ignored what they had just worked hard to pass.
Obama is like a guy who sees his kid brother being kicked in the face for 8 years, the jumps in the middle, and gives the bully new boots.
Almost correct, he makes the bully a deal where they will both pay him money for the next year in exchange for only one beating per week.
Well, in all fairness, the plan Obama sprang on leaders of his own party was perfectly consistent with his campaign promises and every position he’s taken on the Bush tax cuts. /s
Don’t know where to put this tonight. It’s late and fewer folks want to keep beating the dead horse of these awful WH sellouts to the oligarchs. But we need to check on this in the morning and re-frame our whip message to House members: the NYT said in an editorial yesterday (Weds.) that Dems should vote for the “odious” WH deal. And that was before Larry Summers dropped the doom bomb. I don’t know how I missed the NYT editorial, it did not get any play here at the Lake on Wednesday. Naturally, the NYT ignores the horribleness of knocking estate taxes back down to where they were in 1931. Obama is literally undoing the New Deal in front of our eyes and NYT says, okay with us! NYT must be drinkin’ that Mikementum Kool-Aid.
This is such a bad idea I can’t even believe a so-called Dem is doing it.
If Social Security makes it through the Obama Presidency it will be a miracle.
Indeed, and let’s not forget how much the deck was stacked in favor of getting passed Obama’s purported “preferred” position and how much he dawdled and delayed (his strategy with any good proposal to ensure it is never enacted) until the last minute when the issue could have and should have been _settled_ by now. The fact is that Republicans would be _not allowing_ a vote on the tax cut extension for the 98%. Simple as that, if the Dems started this months ago Obama could have been pointing out this constantly, eventually pushing at least several Republicans to allow the vote. Instead besides giving this away right away, and the other bad things, there is an even worse tax cut for the rich that I (naively) wasn’t even expecting. Out of the blue, that whole ridiculous slashing of the inheritance tax (from what it would have by default, no action need-be taken, been set to starting next year).
I think it’s time to consider the most obvious and most likely explanation for Obama’s illogical behavior. He’s not stupid. He’s not weak. He certainly understands the ramifications of all of the pieces of the Deal From Hell which he personally designed. Why would he even suggest, let alone demand that Congress take the Lousiest Deal On Earth and make it the law of the land?
Because Obama is just another crooked politician on the take. Just exactly like his Republican pals. Just exactly like the Cheney-Bush Gang. He is dedicated to the purposeful sabotage and looting of federal programs for his own personal enrichment. This really IS the third Cheney-Bush term.
Consider that the signature tactic employed in the non-debates and non-negotiations surrounding his other “signature” pieces of legislation was the secret backroom deal. Obama and his henchmen collude behind closed doors with the Big-Money Boyz (like the crooks from AHIP/PhRMA for the health care fiasco, or the swindlers and con-men from Wall Street for the FinReg debacle) and agree to scuttle everything of value or importance to the People of America in exchange for some form of payback.
Who has he been conspiring with for the Bush Tax Cuts Giveaway? How about the US Chamber of Commerce? Didn’t he just have a secret plotting session with the people who spent billions of corporate dollars to destroy the Democratic majority? It’s evident now what he agreed to give away – everything!! What did they promise Obama in return? To not run so many mean ads against him in 2012? Or maybe a slice of that multinational corporate pie? Whatever it was, We the People won’t be getting any of it. And once again, Obama demonstrates that he has no qualms whatsoever about setting up and forcing through giant giveaways to the wealthiest people in the country in exchange for nothing tangible for the working taxpayers who are compelled to foot the bill. The only analysis which makes any sense is that Obama got something for himself as a result of all of those secret backroom deals, something which is much more important to him than the health of the citizens, the fiscal health of the nation, or his legacy as a President.
At any rate, it should be evident to one and all that Obama is not concerned with the plight of the American people or the fate of this once-great nation. He is not our friend any more than Dick Cheney or George W. Bush were our friends. He’s a crook. He’s a saboteur. He’s the enemy. His every move is calculated to dismantle and loot the federal government and stick the poor and working class with the bill. This is a Class War and Obama is fighting FOR the wealthy and AGAINST the rest of us.
Obama is not to be trusted. Any initiative coming from the White House is suspect. Progressives need to identify the 2012 primary challengers ASAP, and gear up for a long slogging campaign. No money should be given to Obama, OFA, the DNC, the DSCC, or the DCCC, because they use that money to fund campaigns for Blue Dogs and DINOs like Obama. All progressive campaign contributions should go to specific candidates who share our values and who will not trade them away for a few bucks at the first opportunity.
We can no longer accept Obama as a leader when he is clearly bent on our destruction. We should be calling loudly for his resignation, not because he would actually resign, but to send the message that we have rejected his conniving and swindling, that he holds no place of honor or leadership among the people who mistakenly elected him, that we do not trust his motives or his methods, and that he will not be getting one penny or one vote in 2012 from the people he has betrayed in 2009-2010.
I agree mgloraine. The “Economix” blog over at NYT has been doing cost-benefit analysis on the WH payoffs to the ultra-rich and other pieces of the deal. On Tuesday Economix showed the line-item effect on jobs of each multi-billion piece of the deal. On Wednesday Economix posted Mark Zandi’s analysis using his own models, and he discovered a crucial fact: the economy will end up in the same place in 2013 whether or not the White House deal is passed.
In other words, there is a very carefully calculated temporary jolt to help the economy during the run-up to the presidential primaries in early 2012, the jolt fades out over the course of 2012, and the economy in 2013 will be in the same place it would have been without all these bullshit payoffs to the oligarchs and banking crooks and corporate scum-bags.
Obama would have gotten a lot further than if he had one harnessed the one ego in DC larger than his own– John McCain’s. February of last year, a payroll tax cut bill was offered substitute to the stimulus package sponsored by McCain and supported by all of his Republican colleagues (it lost in a party line vote).
After the midterms, he should have quietly met McCain and says that he (Obama) had been wrong and McCain had been right and that he was man enough to stand up before the press in say so. If McCain and the GOP would call up the McCain Amendment again, he would publicly endorse it and lean on Democrats to put country before party and endorse it. McCain would eat that shit up, if adopted to the letter, that McCain Amendment was more progressive (and would do more good) than the thin gruel the President worked out with McConnell. Its like Reagan said, “There is no limit to what a man can do or where he can go if he doesn’t mind who gets the credit”.
Some of those tax breaks include:
* eliminate the 3.1% payroll tax for one year
* marginal tax rate reduction from 10% to 5% for one year
* lower 15% tax rate to 10% for one year
* lower corporate tax rate from 35% to 25% for one year
http://senatus.wordpress.com/2009/02/05/senate-defeats-mccain-substitute-amendment-to-stimulus/
Of course, as Jon repeatedly pointed out last spring, the Democrats would have been in a far stronger position if they had authorized a reconciliation bill but that ship, like so many others, has sailed.
they say ss is what ever… too much pay out… etc… so then cut the input … the little bit that we pay into it.
That is bad. That is to kill it. That is to kill social security. Them bastards work too hard to kill what is a very good thing. What kind of mfr’s are they?
Devils. It may seem a bit out there, but… What you are dealing with is something much worse than… you think. Because these bastards are real devils. Well yes they are real devils.. check it out… !
You know the other opportunity Obama blew was not coopting Sarah Palin back when he took office even if it required appointing Todd to a federal board, but I’m getting ahead of myself. What I mean is, Obama should have taken Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend program ($1200 per resident this year) and created a national version.
http://www.pfd.alaska.gov/
Fund it with Pigou taxes on carbon, securities transactions, alcohol/tobacco (and maybe someday Cannabis but one step at a time) or other socially detrimental activities that should be curtailed (I dunno, a 75% excise tax on usury or excessive corporate bonuses). Once the ball gets rolling, any other revenue source could be allocated to the Dividend Fund. Create a federal board headquartered, oh, in Anchorage Alaska to manage the Federal Dividend Fund–not forgetting to nominate America’s favorite snow machine enthusiast to sit on the board.
Steal the Alaskan program’s payout, eligibility, enrollment (hell, even the website) design. Then, instead of trying to reduce the deficit (which is impossible anyway in the middle of a recession), any spending cuts and tax hikes the President proposed could be pitched as the means to increase the dividend payout. Either Obama would have handcuffed his most popular opponent (especially since she was still governor at the time) or exposed her as a hypocrite or perhaps both. A pity that the President has drunk far too deeply in the deficit hysteria kool-aid to ever do something so… popular.
Interesting statistics; thanks for the links.
Here’s a blurb from The Hill featuring Obama fear-mongering with the “double-dip” threat (coughed up by Larry “Recovery” Summers yesterday) and a description of how Congressional Dems are all prostrating themselves to the “inevitable”. Obviously, the will of the American people is irrelevant at this point. Obama’s made himself a deal, and the little people will just have to eat the shit sandwich and console ourselves with the mantra “It’s the best we could get”.
kill social security.
KILL SOCIAL SECURITY
YEAH THAT IS A GREAT IDEA
LET’S CUT that little bit of tax that makes possible a reasonalble way for the old to live
If one cannot reduce the impact of Social Security on the economy by tweaking it with age increase or means testing then reduce the size of the Social Security Savings Pot so that it can be dis-mantled easily in the future or make it totally non-effective on the impact it will have on the economy in the future.
For all those doubters on the cat food commission real intent this is the real ground proof where the things would have led if the FDL and other groups did not flag that commission intentions. It is ultimately all about controlling our economy at will by wall street.
I think Republicans got more than what they could have got from a honest & smart Republican President. This so called tax deal does the exact opposite of stimulating an economy.
Lets put this into a parable.
Lets see what this Tax Deal gets for
Mainstream: Chance to buy Peanuts by convieniently using their 2% money which could have gone into long term savings(payroll tax holiday). Mainstream do not have to worry about buying Peanuts. AHIP, Pharma & Banks are waiting outside the school to scoop it up from mainstream.
Top 1%: Chance to buy next Boeing Jumbo Jet ( Thanks a bunch for super tax cut after 3T plus FED led bailout).
Top 1% Children: Chance to buy Lear Jet (Thanks a bunch for Estate Taxes repeal).
Congress: No money for earmarks to stimulate the economy in their constituencies. To me right now only major institution which is forced to spend money on American projects.
If Congress lets this Tax deal expire what will happen:
Mainstream: No money to buy peanuts but can save money in their long term savings of social security trust fund and possible jobs because congress will spend money on earmarks.
Top 1%: Chance to buy next Lear Jet (Pres. Clinton Era Tax Rates).
Top 1% children: Chance to buy single seater aircraft (Pres. Clinton Era Estate Rates).
Congress: Spend money on earmark projects on American land with American labor.
This tax cut debate is a classic example of Good Cop Bad Cop being played out on the public. If the democrats were serious about ending the Bush tax cuts they wldve taken action long before now to do it. The democrats cldve extended UI benefits with republicans if they wldve agreed to pay for it by using unused stimulus dollars or they cldve simply used majority rules in the house and reconciliation in the senate to pass it without paying for it out of stimulus funds. The democrats are going to vote for these tax cuts and then hold their noses and say they had no other choice when this is what they were going to do all along. So far the only people that Obama has asked to sacrafice has been the federal workers who saw their wages frozen while the richest of us get an unpaid for tax cut. A real leader wldve addressed the nation and explained how although it is unpopular the truth is we can no longer afford the Bush tax cuts for anyone. An explanation of how we are borrowing money from other countries to pay for tax cuts and two wars is draining this nation’s future might not have been popular to some but I believe most Americans wld be willing to sacrafice and pitch in if they were asked to. He cldve told us that we are going back to the Clinton rates and remind us of how prosperous we were at that time. Instead he took the easy way out and added almost a trillion more dollars to the debt a week after HIS deficit commission said we need to get our fiscal house in order. The democrats used the unemployed and the threat of taxing the middle class as the reason for doing what they had planned to do all along extending tax cuts to millionaires and billionaires. It is a classic example of Good Cop vs Bad Cop.
Well of course he could have gotten the payroll tax holiday at any time! It’s a Heritage Foundation idea designed to weaken Social Security! I think that progressives need to unite behind another candidate for 2012 early. Progressive citizens should be uniting to tell progressives in congress that they have to get harsh with Obama. For example, abstaining in a block on Afghanistan spending. Even abstaining on the debt ceiling. The Progressive Coalition in Congress should even consider privately communicating to Obama that they will abstain in any impeachment proceedings should he not move well to the left (and presenting a laundry list of policy initiatives with that signalling). Obama, by 2012, will have had the opportunity to have been a worse President than Bush. I hope we won’t be saying that… though it seems he’s already getting close.
I thought that social security was in trouble-Why take 2% away from this program? Is there anyone who thinks that will not be permament?
Bush said he regretted not privatizing SS. Well OBAMA and DEMS have made his legacy. Even Bush or McCain could not have accomplished this for the BANKSTERS, who have been inching to get their greedy paws on BILLION/TRILLIONS more of our $$$$$.
Social Security is history.
This is BHOs biggest mistake yet.
He is helping Grover Norquist fast walk SocSec into the Republican gas chamber.
BHO needs to go. The country can’t risk keeping him in charge.
If only there were political malpractice laws, maybe. . . hmmmmm. .