A few weeks ago, some polling suggested a minor increase in support for the new health care law, but recent polling indicates that is likely not the case. Three new polls show little improvement and even some loss in support for the law. Polls from Pew (approve 35 percent, disapprove 47), CBS News (approve 36, disapprove 49) and PPP (PDF) (support 40, 53) show the law remains very unpopular.

I’ve always expected the bill to remain unloved for a long time and did not understand why supporters of the legislation thought it would become more popular in the short to medium term. I never heard a satisfactory explanation for why the law would win more approval. The issue was heavily debated and very divisive. People developed locked-in opinions about it. Since almost all of its provisions don’t noticeably affect the vast majority of Americans for several years, I don’t see what event would cause most to re-examine their opposition.

There might be a very small group of people who believed the wild rumors that the law would immediately put in place some Orwellian nightmare of death panels, and then when that did not occur, they no longer opposed the law. If that group exists, it’s much too small to move the poll numbers.

In retrospect these numbers make the decision to abandon the idea of expanding Medicare and delay insurance-coverage expansion until 2014 to get a “better” CBO score look unbelievably misguided. We know from Libby, Montana that the government can quickly and easily expand its popular and cost-effective Medicare program to cover more people. In this economic environment, if the new law, starting this past May, made millions of regular Americans’ lives better by providing them with new insurance coverage or cheaper coverage through Medicare, support for the law would be significantly higher by now.

Instead, the new health care law will remain mainly an abstract issue of partisanship and the role of government in most Americans’ mind for years, until it becomes “real” halfway through Obama’s second term. Once again, Congressional Democrats will pay for having embraced bad policy, which is also terrible politics.