CLINTON: The reason we didn’t get Social Security reform is because the Chairman of Ways & Means Committee, Bill Archer of Texas and I, had just about reached a deal where we would slow down the cost of living increases for social security and make them more in line for real costs of living, at least for upper income people, we would do more on that.
In return for which we would make available through tax incentives the opportunity to build a savings account on top of Social Security. And we had worked the numbers out, we thought we could take it out 75 years.
And as far as I could determine, it was about the only issue that Newt Gingrich and Dick Gephardt agreed on: they both told us that neither party wanted to fool with social security before the 2000 elections, and would we please go away. And you know, if the leaders of both houses are against something, it’s pretty hard to pass something. Especially it was..and I got it, they were listening to their members and they didn’t want to take the heat. I don’t think there would’ve been much heat, I think people would’ve appreciated it.
And now..if the numbers I see on Pete’s chart are anything close to right, the fix that we had would not be sufficient to take it out of a 75 year lifespan, and to take the coming burden off the budget.
That directly contradicts direct quotes from both Newt Gingrich and Erskine Bowles throughout Gillon’s book:
Gingrich elaborated on his dealings with Clinton, his high hopes for forging a new coalition, and his frustration over how the president’s recklessness derailed such a promising historacal moment. In January 2006, I called Bowles at his Charlotte office and explained how Gingrich viewed the meeting and its significance, fully expecting him to offer an alternative “White House interpretation” that downplayed its importance and minimized the role that the Lewinsky scandal played in preventing Social Security and Medicare reform. Instead, I discovered why Bowles had earned the reputation for being a straight-shooter. He asked to see the notes of the meeting and offered to share them with the president. He made clear that he never spoke with writers without the president’s permission, which he received. When I called him back a few days later, there was no spin — just frustration, a touch of sadness, and, after a long silence, emphatic agreement. “That’s absolutely 100 percent right,” he said. In that discussion, and a later meeting at his office, Bowles talked about his shuttle diplomacy between the White House and Capitol Hill, the careful planning that went on behind the scenes to broker the meeting, and his disapointment with the president and his actions in the Lewinsky affair. The small number of White House aides involved in the negotiations supported his version of events and added valuable insight and detail on the Clinton-Gingrich relationship.
According to Gillon’s account, which was based on access to Newt’s private papers and interviews with key players, Gingrich “lost his political wiggle room and was forced to appease his right-wing base” as the Lewinsky situation played out.”
Bowles talked about what happened when the story broke:
When Bowles asked the president about the story that morning, Clinton denied it. “Erskine,” he said, “I want you to know that this story is not true.” Bowles was crushed by the alleged charges, which he assured were untrue. He was also devastated that a potentially great moment had been lost. Whether true or not, he understood the political implications: all of their hard work in building the alliance with Gingrich had been destroyed. “It was game over,” he recalled. Bowles believes that the Lewinsky affair “was one of the seminal moments in American history.” There was no doubt in his mind that Clinton and Gingrich would have created a plan for reforming both Social Security and Medicare that year and, perhaps, set the stage for a new period of bipartisanship. “Gingrich wanted to do it; Clinton wanted to do it. It was a real missed opportunity,” he said. “Monica changed everything.” John Hilley, who played a key role in developing a legislative strategy for Social Security reform, shared Bowles’s disappointment. “The scandal effectively undermined the bipartisanship that had accomplished so much in 1996 and 1997.”
No one in the book backs up Clinton’s assertion that Newt pulled the plug on addressing Social Security because he didn’t want to take heat from his caucus for doing so. “The Lewinsky scandal forced Gingrich to shift gears,” writes Gillon. “He woke up on the morning of January 21 believing that he and Clinton were going to work together to forge a political realignment. He went to bed that night knowing there would be no Social Security or Medicare reform, and no centrist political coalition.”




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Or, perhaps: “Monica who?”
“It depends on what the meaning of the word ‘Gephardt’ is.”
OT
Here are some photos of the consequences of O’s fiddling while the oil filled the Gulf. Primary the fraud and failure. Dean, Sanders, DeFazio, Feingold, Whitehouse, Kuccinich, someone step up and challenge the first black Republican president.
http://www.mnn.com/green-tech/research-innovations/blogs/coast-guard-and-bp-threaten-journalists-with-arrest-for-docume
Gee, who’s the bigger liar? What an uplifting contest.
If the neoliberal cabal in deecee has its way we’ll be making our FICA payments directly to Goldman Sachs before long.
Bill who?
This will be Obama in 15 years, rewriting the history of health care reform.
We have got to start renumbering our recent presidents. The revised corrected order should be:
Bush 41
Bush 42 (Clinton)
Bush 43
Bush 44 (Obama)
I see that razorbrain is razor sharp, even in the morning.
There’s a reason it’s called the third rail. The day any government in Washington has a 75 years into the future planning horizon is the day…
So, let’s see Clinton’s version is from his testifying about his Social Security reform bonafides before the acolytes of Pete Peterson, King of the Rich People Shouldn’t Pay Taxes Society versus a book by someone with interviews from multiple players and access to papers from the period.
Ding, ding, ding. We have a loser. The American public who will be sold a bill of goods about Social Security Reform that reforms nothing and in the process Pete and his friends will not only be spared from making their much needed contributions to the upkeep of this great nation and already overburdened working class will be kneecapped repeatedly to support the over indulged twats.
IOW, it doesn’t matter who is telling the truth about the details in the past, Lewinsky’s naivety, Bill’s immaturity and Linda Tripp’s hatred and greed stopped the players that gave you NAFTA, Welfare “Reform”, the repeal of Glass Steagall and Gramm Bliley Leach from completing their perfect storm of events to destroy the American middle class.
My guess is that Obama and his crew of Goldman Sachs advisers will begin their “deficit reduction” plan early next year. This will consist of cuts to SS payments for future generations, partial privatization of SS accounts, reductions in Medicare payments, and raising the eligibility age for both SS and Medicare to 70. And he will accomplish all this with GOP votes in Congress, completely abandoning any pretense of support for working people. In return for voting for Obama’s plan, the GOPers will demand, and get, an end to the “death tax” and lower capital gains taxes for their wealthy supporters. What a great bargain!
Obama has a plan to commit political suicide by creating more economic pain and giving a huge gift to Wall Street (SS private accounts). He really, really wants to be a one-term president. Howard Dean, where are you? We need a primary challenger from the Democratic wing of the party.
I say: Give Monica and her thong a monument on the Mall!
Love this post, Jane! Thanks!
I am pleased to see this blowhard being exposed for the corporatist he is/was (of course, many of us knew this to be a fact once NAFTA was being passed)
LOL. Doesn’t take a genius to see the forked tongues flickering.
Breaking news–Cantwell caves, will vote for cloture. Another big surprise.
Maybe he just refuses to ever say her name so he has to insert a lie wherever her name should be spoken. I don’t blame him really. He has to have kicked himself a zillion times for jeopardizing so much for so little.
Hmmm….
Clinton: “Newt’s a liar.”
Gingrich: “Bill tells the truth.”
My contempt for this schmuck grows with his every utterance.
I suppose it could be both/and. So far the principals in this drama all have explanations that make themselves look good.
In defense of Clinton though- this is Gingrich we’re talking about. And Erskine Bowles still has a dog in this fight. Who’s to say that Archer and Gingrich weren’t working to punk Clinton over Social Security? If it wasn’t “one of the seminal moments in American history” it could have been something else.
It’s very difficult to definitively explain why someone else did or didn’t do something in the National Kabuki Theater.
Which schmuck?
The only “burden on the budget” is rich people who refuse to pay their fair share.
They ‘borrowed’ $1.7 Trillion from Social security back when things were going well,and now they’ve decided that it’s impossible to pay us back without doing away with the BushCo era tax-cuts for the rich-and-worthless.
WobamaRahmCo is deciding, as we speak, that defaulting on our nation’s commitments to everyone except the oligarchs is the only rational thing to do.
Nothing personal, they don’t really hate the poor and middle-classes, it’s just business.
I gather from Jane’s pieces on the book that Gillon never interviewed Bill Clinton about this. He isn’t shy about interviews, so I wonder if Gillon didn’t want to know how Bill would respond. That suggests the book is a deliberate hatchet-job.
Newt Gingrich is a sophist primarily concerned with his own aggrandizement. Anyone who trusts word one out of his mouth is a fool.
And if Bowles thinks that, under any circumstances, Gingrich, DeLay, et al were in favor of a new era of bipartisanship, he’s way beyond foolish. Gingrich has probably done more to destroy the possibility of bipartisan cooperation than any politician in memory. Scorched-earth practices were his route to power. I suspect Bowles may be aggrandizing his own views by claiming Clinton agreed with him. If he was functioning as an intermediary consensus-builder between Congress and the White House, he’s certainly to Clinton’s right.
Jane unfortunately has always been preoccupied with tearing Bill Clinton down. She just cannot seem to get it through her head that Clinton’s compromises or “triangulation” or whatever term she wants to demonize it with were the result of his dealing with Congresses that were very much to his right. This was true even in ’93-94 when both chambers were controlled by Democrats. And in almost every instance, his compromises rarely made the underlying situation worse and frequently made it better.
Ooh, the market is nosediving. Wall Street no doubt trying to send a message to Congress about the financial reform debate, probably the derivatives piece. They want Reid to close things down today before Cantwell, Feingold et al do more damage. Would be funny if Scott Brown becomes Wall Street’s shining knight.
So now we know that we owe a debt of gratitude to Ms Lewinsky and Bill’s skirt chasing ways. At the time, I saw the overreactions of the Rs as a bad thing but now we know better. Too bad we have less to hope for this time around.
lol!
Big Dawg has to protect his BIG BILLION $ fortune ,for Chelsea and the grand kids ya know
Is Bill on the speaker’s schedule for Netroots Nation again this year?
Thank you, Jane, for this clarification.
Bill is too egotistical to notice his legacy swirling around the drain.
Read to the bottom of that article, and you find:
Now you can believe this statement from the Coast Guard or not, but we’re probably being premature to take the premise of the first part of that article as accurate.
May 6th showed that if HFT is running and connected, the algorithms can pretty well pop it up as quickly has they can take it down. This is just some of the muscle standing in front of the store’s plate window tossing a baseball up and down.
“Nice stock market you got there. It’d be a shame if something were to happen to it.”
I.F.Stone: “All governments lie’.
Ouch! The dissonance of that choice surprised me at the time, but after kos went all Obamabot on us, much less so.
We’ve certainly got pix of the sludge entering the marshlands of LA. So much for the flora and fauna in the marshes.
Don’t they have someplace out in the San Fernando valley for things like that? You know, a place where they keep things like Ron Jeremy’s moustache.
That’s thier solution to everything from healthcare to global warming.
And the media will praise him for successful “bipartisanship!”
Spot on! It’s like Presidential Groundhog Day.
NN should be very interesting this year.
With a string of sovereign default crises percolating away in Europe, the Goldman and other suits, the deteriorating fundamentals in our own economy, the failure of elites in this country and anywhere abroad to actually face up to and fix any of this, dinking with the stock market could put it in a spin that even Helicopter Ben’s ZIRP might not be able to get it out of.
Actually, I wanted a 750 foot statue about 10 yards from the Washington Monument.
Thanks Jane! And what gets me is that even beyond the lies and deceptions, he’s making delusional statements like this:
The neoliberal economists cannot even estimate unemployment 6 months out. And we are supposed to believe in Bill’s 75 year plan?!
Fuck it, all of em. But extra special for worthless POS Clinton today.
Yes but you can be sure that they are hedged for the downside and have lots of money making opportunities in anything but a full fledged rout. It pays to be the guys being paid (JPMorgan’s -.25% interest being but one example) to borrow billions from the taxpayers.
Both right and wrong -
We are “being sold a bill of goods”
but the Clinton proposals of maintaining the required actuarial balance by matching increasing longevity with later “normal retirement age” and thats effect decrease in what is paid at age 62, plus fixing very minor but important politically technical problems such as the CPI for the retired not being exactly the same as the CPI for a 30 year old are not “selling a bill of goods” – and indeed will happen if SS is allowed to continue to exist simply because it can not exist without those changes.
Clinton wanted to transfer from the General Fund about 80% of the projected FEDERAL INCOME TAX surplus – calculated as $1.5 trillion in 98 – to the Social Security Trust Fund. He want to gift a 1% of income (actually 0.5% was also on the table when Newt pulled out) as a “401k” savings plan for everyone with voluntary payroll deductions if you wanted to add to that – as Gephart was saying he was OK with this, Newt pulled out.
“Momica” – if read as the “GOP” who controlled Congress in 98/99 – certainly did put a stop to this.
Yes – actuarial projections are done every year, and their history from the beginning shows that they are conservative – so if they say good for 75 years (which is the standard duration of these projections) you can more or less take it to the bank that SS would have been in solid shape.
I agree – except I’d give Jane the benefit of the doubt as to motive – a search for truth is as likely as a need to tear down Bill – and assigning motive is just about impossible. One can only do as the Roman/Greek politicians suggested 2000 years ago = see who benefits.
And as you note, with Bill his actions also mitigated what Newt was trying to do – and he pushed ideas that would help the poor and middleclass. I have relatives that will tell you that the Reform welfare 5 year (with Bill’s exceptions) rule, with Bill’s re-training rules, was the best thing that happened to them after years of being welfare dependent because of husbands that skipped with everything and no skills and eventually an attitude of no ambition to change anything. It was much better than the welfare reform Newt plus “centerist Dems” – more than 2/3rds the Congress – were trying to put through and could pass over a veto.
Even NAFTA followed standard econ theory at the time – MIT’s Paul Samuelson’s proof that free trade was not always good was not done until Bill had left office.
Been out of the loop on this book.
Let me see if I have the narrative right:
How a blow job saved Social Security and Medicare
Is that it?
You have made an assumption here that a Clinton interview was not requested. It could very well have been requested and denied because this is not the sort of information that Bill would view as assuring his one-of-the-best-presidents-ever place in history.
Thank you so much for the book salon and for additional posts on this issue. Who knew a little blue dress could do so much?
I’m with Jane a good 90-95% of the time. Almost all of my differences with her come from her ridiculously harsh view of Bill Clinton and his presidency. She has a long history of trashing him. My remark above wasn’t based on this one post.
I don’t see a contradiction between Clinton and whomever; it’s the same story, told from two different perspectives. The underlying truth works for both sides of the debate: after Lewinsky, neither party’s House leadership would take a risk on a big project with Clinton’s name attached. Gillon/Gingrich say(s) that, while Clinton says Archer didn’t think the “reform” was politically do-able in the post-Monica revelations atmosphere.
And, believe me, I am no friend of Bill’s.
I am making an assumption, you’re right. However, if you go through this post and the other one, as well as all the comments, you will not find one reference to Bill Clinton even being approached about an interview, much less declining one. It appears that to Gillon, Jane, and everyone else, what Bill says is beside the point. He’s not shy about interviews, and if he knew that both Bowles and Gingrich were cooperating, I’d be very surprised if he didn’t want to offer his own two cents. He might even have sought Gillon out.
Which goes to show just how screwed up the Democrats in Washington were (and largely still are). Bill’s job approval rating bottomed out at about 58 or 59 percent, and was generally in the mid-to-upper 60s from the point the Lewinsky scandal hit until he left office. You’d think they’d follow him to the ends of the earth under those circumstances.
Your “search” leaves something to be desired:
Here’s what I said in the “other one,” SECOND PARAGRAPH:
Not only was Clinton interviewed by Gillon for the book, he instructed his staff (including Bowles) to cooperate with him. Gillon, from the paragraph quoted in the post above:
And based on a weird and erroneous conclusion that Bill Clinton was never approached or interviewed, you dismiss the extremely well documented and carefully footnoted book as a campaign to smear him. Awesome.
Papau, I’m going to assume you didn’t see my response setting the record straight when you made the similar claim the other day:
http://firedoglake.com/2010/05/18/how-monica-lewinsky-saved-social-security-clinton-gingrich-bowles-and-the-pact/#comment-2140726
If you two need help with mastering Google search, the people in the comments can be helpful and it can save you from future mistakes such as these.
That’s complete nonsense.
Error’s propagate in compound fashion. If you are off by a mere 0.5% per year then your estimate could be off by 45% after 75 years. And heaven forbid that you are off by 1% because that would throw your estimate off by over 110%.
If you’re trying to be “conservative” on a 75yr estimate that means you are planning to collect too much and/or payout too little. It’s like telling the old folks that they should eat cat food “just in case” things get tight 75 years from now.
My apologies. Please feel free to delete the comments.
You would be essentially correct.
Jane–
Actually, leave the comments up. I apologize to Professor Gillon for jumping to erroneous conclusions about his book. However, I’m not apologizing to you. You’re clearly trying to use Gillon’s book to smear Bill Clinton with the inference that he was trying to gut Social Security.
You are clearly trying to equate Obama’s actions with Clinton’s. Obama set up his commission, one that Congress refused to do for him, with an eye on a predetermined outcome. The Danforth Commission, or the Kerrey-Danforth Commission as it is generally called, was a bone thrown to Bob Kerrey at the last minute to get his vote for the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993. Perhaps Professor Gillon’s book shows otherwise, but the passages you quote do nothing to contradict my and several others’ view (including Armando Llorens’) that Bill Clinton didn’t give a rat’s ass what that commisssion did or didn’t come up with.
Bill Clinton’s great sins here seem to be supporting a raise in the retirement age–I believe to 70, which is not unreasonable, particularly in the full-employment context of the 1990s–and adjusting the COLAS for upper-income citizens. (Clinton says this in the quote where his memory seems faulty, but you don’t dispute it, so I assume that’s right.)
Oh, and he favored an income-percentage for private accounts ON TOP of the standard FICA deductions.
This is one hell of a long way from what Dubya was proposing and what Obama seems to be after. And it doesn’t sound that bad given the times. It certainly would have effectively shut the let-them-eat-cat-food crowd up for another 10-15 years, if not longer.
Social Security benefits do not need to be cut. So spare us the koolaid….
Yeah, just give us the $1.7 (or was it $2.7) trillion you borrowed back in the 1980 (with interest) and we’ll be just fine.