This is in line with recent remarks from Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND) and Rep. George Miller (D-CA) who both said the House will need to move first. It’s an apparent change in stance for the House as House Democrats had previously insisted that the Senate must act first. Whether House Democrats can find the votes to move first is an open question as is whether Senate Democrats will actually follow through on a promise to pass a reconciliation to change the underlying bill.
Given the current state of the Senate, any House member who votes for the current Senate bill should be prepared to defend their vote assuming the reconciliation fix never happens. There are several potential stumbling blocks for reconciliation. Senate Democrats might back out of their promise after their comprehensive bill passes the House. When it comes time to decide the nuts and bolts of the reconciliation bill in the Senate, the negotiations could collapse. Application of the Byrd rule and floor amendment could either leave the reconciliation measure impassable or result in a final product that makes insufficient changes to the comprehensive legislation.




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I couldn’t care less what they say, I’m embarrassed, strike that, I’m appalled by what they’re doing.
The problem is they offhandedly dismiss our threats but treat the threats of big donors as sacrosanct. If we want this garbage to stop, we MUST vote them all out ASAP. If it means electing the worst Republicans, I will do it. I’ve had enough.
This morning I contributed to Bill Halter, I really hope he beats Lincoln soundly. But, I swear I’ll support a 3rd party or a Repub before I help another Dem continue this assault on the middle class.
Earlier I thought of the House as Kamikaze Democrats but it’s more like Sati. The leadership is trying to hurl the House dems onto the burning carcass of the bill.
Well actually “the House must act first” can mean one of three things:
1. Pass the Senate bill and pray that the Senate doesn’t screw them over
2. Pass a reconciliation bill and refuse to take up the Senate bill until the Senate passes the reconciliation bill
3. Announce the Senate bill is dead and pass a single (reconciliation) HCR bill, let Obama worry about getting 50 Senate votes for it.
#1 means (who are we kidding) the Senate will screw over the House on the PO and everything else. #2 means there’s a chance for a strong public option, #3 positively requires one. I think its time to treat the White House and the Senate Democrats exactly the same way they should have treated the Republicans– give compromise and sweet reason a chance but stand ready to (as Captain Jack Aubrey would say), clear the deck fore and aft and fire a broadside as she rolls. The House should prepare and get CBO scoring on two reconciliation bill (for #2 and #3). If the Senate is cooperative, pass #2, but if they’re not, pass #3 and then put the decision for success or failure for HCR on the President and the Senate.
We need to put strong pressure on Kucinich, and I think Eric Massa, to vote no again unless the Senate acts first. If the House moves first, then they’re committing suicide by putting forth a mandate without a public option. Possible deals that Kucinich and Massa should ask for: Get rid of the mandate and I’ll sign on . That’s a nice easy fix that we can come back to later…
I think a better way is supporting viable third party runs. That means you might support Green Party candidate Mel Packer if Specter wins the democratic nomination for senator in Pennsylvania or support a well funded Nader run in Connecticut. By the way, viable means you raise at least 2 million for a senate run and a half million for a house run. If you can’t do that then you really are wasting everybody’s time….
I do have something called the 5/25 plan if anyone’s interested…That’s five senators and 25 house seats although it appears you just need one senator to affect United States Policy…unless that senator were to stop a military appropriation or waste time arguing for more funding for public schools, then there would be demand for “majority rule” and the tyranny of the minority…
Here’s a question I’d like to hear someone ask our President. IF we need HCR so much and this Bill he’s now browbeating House Dems to pass is so good for Americans, WHY are so many of its “benefits” delayed for so long?
Steely, Come Nov., the only thing I’m sure of is, if Dems don’t pass significant HCR I will NOT be voting Democratic for any office at any level.
My problem is similar to yours. They are delaying benefits for so long that nobody currently in congress is likely to still be there when benefits would be forthcoming, but I’m virtually certain that the incoming Rethug Congress will rescind the legislation before anyone even feels the effects of it.
I’m told that if reconciliation doesn’t work, they will go to a “40% majority rule.” Only 40% majority required to pass a bill in both Houses. If that doesn’t work, they will go for Obama issuing it by executive order.
If that doesn’t work, they are bringing in Hugo Chavez.
If the House passes the Senate bill, expect victory to be declared and then a loud cry to shift to something else other than HCR. Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc can all be used to wag the dog so that people are distracted as they get turned into corporate serfs thanks to Obama, his henchmen and the stepford politicians.
Senate Dems are looking for cover!
Senate Dems and the White House need House Dems to provide them cover for their Republican Health Care Bill.
House Members don’t fall for the Hope a Dope, the Senate will never fix the bill in reconciliation, they just want the House Dems to jump on their sinking and burning ship. House Dems let the White House and Senate Dems sank by themselves.
Smart House Dem members would campaign against the Senate Bill, because it so un-popular
It’s a very good question. Will the MSM ask it? No. The networks are licking their chops at the prospect of all that ad revenue from Insurance Companies support of political candidates. And the supreme court decision to allow corporate funding is even bigger.
The networks – guys like Redstone and Rupert Murder are going to be rich, rich I tell you – RICH!
The jerks aren’t even talking about fixing the part that is horribly broken – the mandate with no public option.
AND THE KILLIN’ GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Jon Walker:
This is EXACTLY what happened with NAFTA and the tax hikes leading up to 1994. This time however, if the house progressives hold firm and Pelosi can’t whip enough votes to pass the Senate bill, then the House regains the initiative and can pass a reconcilliation package and send it to the Senate and stick the Senate bill up Rahm’s ass.
And I can’t help but think that Phony Nancy knows that the only way she holds on to her Speakership and the Democratic majority in her chamber is to kill the Senate bill without a vote and move onto reconcilliation. This stacks up as Rahm and his gobblins tryin’ ta take Pelsoi down and allow for a balance of enough fascist Republicans in the House after November to triangulate every real Democrat right out of the party.
This has happened before, Firepups, and the split in the rulin’ class is right down the middle of the Democratic Party. If Pelosi caves in then we move to a third party movement built around the November elections…a futile task for electing candidates but the only way to hollow out the Democratic Party enough to take it back in 2012.
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITION, THE STRUGGLE GOEZ ON AND ON AND….
Citizen cregan:
Go back into your kennel, you won’t get fed around here.
Time is wasted on deciphering these asholes. So just don’t report on them until they actually do something.
It is preordained that Congress will pass a relaltively intact Senate POS bill because that is the product they want in direct opposition to what he majority of the population wants and needs.
Our time is better spent on seeking alternatives to Hoyer and anyone else as the opportunity arises. The passage of this worhtless HCR can serve as the single issue that can be hung aound the head of all Congresspeople that conspired to enact it, because they wanted to and not for some lame protocol that bound their hands.
The very sight of Hoyer and Conrad and having to listen to their meaningless drivel is sickening.
” the mandate with no public option” serious problem
teabaggers better go back to church…Jesus was a socialist
“Hope a Dope,” (Very Funny :))
“…the Senate will never fix the bill in reconciliation,…”
Take that to the bank. If the house gets conned into passing the Senate Bill, that will be the end of HCR. Victory will be declared and they will move on to NOT doing something else we think is important.
As loudly as the ReThugs are squealing before the Senate takes up reconciliaton fixes just imagine how load they will be squealing after the Senate actually does start working on the fixes. (as if)
And of course the Dems have proven so adept at standing up to ReThug intimidation.
No, if the House passes the Senate bill as is that will be the end of health care reform for the foreseeable future. And that will be the end of 30 years as a registered Democrat for me. The Senate won’t take up any fixes. I believe that with every bone in my body.
If the senate bill passes the House intact I will be an ex-Democrat. And there will be no reason to wait a few days (or weeks) to see if the Senate is going to actually take up reconciliation. I will send my amended voter registration form in the next day. Period.
If the Senate intended to actually follow through and pass reconcilation fixes, there’d be no need to insist the House pass the Senate bill first. A reconciliation bill that fixes a piece of legislation that hasn’t passed yet is a meaningless piece of paper. The worst case scenario for the Senate then, is what? That they wasted a half hour voting? Their time’s not that precious.
No, the insistence that the House go first is plainly and obviously A: a ploy (they have no intention of ‘fixing’ their corporate grab bag bill and B: a way to put the House of Representatives in its place
Yeah, I was very encouraged when I learned that Miller thinks that Reid believes that he can put the votes together in the Senate to do the “fixes” later. Very reassuring.
If the House stupidly does this and it falls through (i.e. when the inevitable happens), every member of the House who goes along with it after having claimed to be a leader on health care reform and having taken money from progressives for months will have to be held accountable.
For example, if Weiner and Grayson stupidly go along with this and it falls through (i.e. when the inevitable happens), Firedoglake will have to strip them of their 2010 Fire Dog status, demand that they return every penny that was given to them, very publicly and loudly shame them, and never trust them again. If Firedoglake does not hold the most visible of the supposed “allies” accountable for such a betrayal, Firedoglake would lose all credibility.
Citizen Steelydan3:
I was with ya until ya brought up resurrecting the “N” word in Connecticut. The game is NOT up inside the Democratic Party yet…Pelosi and Rahm represent the two sides of the ruling oligarchy that are split on where to go in economic recovery. If the progressives can kill the Senate bill in the House without a vote and send a reconcilliation bill back to the Senate (I think it’s called the Schumer “ping pong” politics) then the Senate will be forced to act or ObamaRahma and the Democratic Seante majority take the hit in November.
Turn out the lights.
The party’s over.
it may be part of the strategy to pass the Senate measure in the HOUSE with the promise of a reconiliation fix, THEN blame the goopers if it doesnt go through.
Thus the goopers get to carry the cornhusker sell out, the excise program, etc.
That could be a real PR reach though.
I assume that’s rhetorical.
The obvious reason for delaying the benefits, but putting in place the charges is that the math has to add up in a 10 year window.
Collect the money for 10 years but only pay out benefits for 5 years and we can show that HCR “in revenue neutral, or actually saves money”.
Hog wash.
two tidbits I gleaned over the weekend:
the speaker can hold a passed bill at her desk indefinitely. so it does not go to the Senate or the President for signing.
Pelosi and Reid listen to the goopers and start over with a clean slate, then adopt Medicare for all.
Yes because the Senate has proven itself so trustworthy! Screw the bill, let the insurance companies price themselves out of existence over the next several years and then go in and gut the scum!
actually, Jack Aubrey would say:
Go right at them.
i take that to be your #2
KarmaLamp is tracking the Healthcare Debate on Twitter. KarmaLamp’s heartbeat is driven by the intensity of the conversation.
http://www.karmalamp.com
You know if we could only harness the snake oil Congress produces, we could end our dependence on foreign oil forever.
Leen.
First, even Nancy Pelosi yesterday on This Week seemed to courting the Tea Party people.
Second, and much more important. Why are you attempting to smear Tea Party people by associating them with a gay sex act? You are certainly not doing it to compliment them. So, what is it about a gay sex act that you feel is so bad that you can use it to smear someone and make fun of them??
Do you feel that the sexual activities of gay people are funny? Do you feel they are open targets to use to smear others?
I have some very close family members who are gay and I really take offence at the homophobic nature of you using “teabagging” and “teabaggers” as a method to smear someone. You seem to think that associating them with such acts will put them in a bad light.
If you didn’t have some personal disgust for these acts you wouldn’t use them to smear others. You need to look at that.
11th dimensional chess anyone? /s
Too clever by half…
as I said,
a real PR reach.
just trying to play out the end game here.
Do goopers gain if they are the ones to stop the rescinding of the excise tax?
Blue Texan’s regularly scheduled post is up and about: Blanche Lincoln Responds to Primary Challenege by Calling Liberals “Extremists”
As Pelosi says the House has good cause to distrust the Senate. Especially a Senate run by a Harry Reid, I might add. She suggested a signed agreement by every Senator supposedly on board as a good faith offer before moving. that’s one smart woman.
I don’t trust raging Moderates Steny Hoyer or Clyburn either to whip the Blue Dogs or other Moderates into shape – and I don’t think Pelosi really trusts them either.
I suggest we follow Pelosi’s lead on how to proceed. She’s been the only consistent voice on our side, out of all the Congressional leaders.
Alan1tx, right you are, twice.
Has anyone said why House must move first?
Peterboy, I give you joy. Actually #2 would be to work out a reasonable compromise with the Senate, that is, dropping the excise tax and adding a public option to a reconciliation bill to be enacted concurrently with the Senate bill and its private insurance market reforms. However, I don’t think the Senate bill is any prize. Over at correntwire, there was a diary about Obama’s deals with Pharma, reducing drug costs by 2% over 10 years (in other words, its not a reduction from current drug prices, rather a reduction from future increases. Just adopting the VA-negotiated prices would cut 40% this year and every year thereafter). The deal with the American Hospital Association is even worse, a one-half of one percent cut in projected spending and a a WH promise not to support a public option plan tied to Medicare rates or even one administered by HHS (I’d note, for no reason at all, that Tricare is administered by DoD, not HHS).
#3 would be going straight at ‘em. A Medicare buy-in bill could be passed by reconciliation and would make the Senate bill and its private insurance reforms unnecessary. Pete Stark’s Americare bill is a Medicare buy-in plan that would start providing universal coverage three years sooner than the Senate bill. EFFECTIVE DATE FOR BENEFITS- This title shall apply to items and services furnished on or after January 1, 2011. (Sec. 2201)
Speaking of Pete Stark, he’s been keeping uncharacteristically quiet about all of this, presumably because, 1. He’s been under an ethics investigation (he was cleared a few weeks ago) and 2. If Charlie Rangel loses the gavel over his own ethics probe, Stark is next in line to be Ways & Means Chairman. Its understandable he’d keep his powder dry until Pelosi decides whether to give Stark the gavel or pass him over for Sander Levin or John Lewis.
However, my advice to Stark (and the other House progressives) is: Bear a hand man. You have the weather gauge, beat to quarters and go straight at em. Time and tide wait for no man, there’s not a moment to lose! :o)
Good one. And be rid of the snakes while we’re at it.
I am so done with these people, I’m getting rapture ready for Palin ’12.
In your #2, do you mean just create another House Bill? I thought The House does not HAVE reconciliation, that the process for the Senate only?
I’m in full accord with you though, and praying for #2 or #3 . . . sadly, I think we are about to find out just what it means for ‘The House To Act First’, and it likely won’t be to progs benefit . . .
Agreed, fully. Nice catch.
Yer so on it that you make The Sugar Hill Gang And Apache look off it.
Great analysis, and dead on.
I’d only add there’s a few more levels being played out in it all, but right now the BIG one moved to the front IS Rahm v. Pelosi . . . . . may he rot in hell.
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) is an idiot and I cannot stand this double-talking phony-ass.