A new PPP poll is making the rounds today. The poll reports that half of Americans (50%) are opposed health care reform, and only 39% state support. What is interesting is the source of much of the opposition:
Digging a little deeper on those numbers though 64% of respondents planning or open to voting Democratic this fall support it with only 22% opposed. The overall numbers are negative only because of 94/1 opposition among folks who have said there is no way they’ll vote Democratic this fall.
Roughly a third of Americans plan to almost always vote for Democrats, and a third plan to almost always vote for Republicans. Given how the Republican Congressional leadership has decided to wage an all-out war on Democrats’ health care bill, it is not surprising that the Republican base is nearly unanimously against it.
The incredibly strong opposition to health care reform in the Republican base makes bipartisan reform next to impossible. I doubt any Republican in Congress would ever want to go completely against their entire base to help Democrats achieve a big victory. Combined with the fact the obstructionism has turned into such a successful political strategy, there seems to be zero incentive for Republicans to help Democrats pass health care reform. A successful bipartisan health care bill would probably hurt Republican chances of taking back Congress. It just won’t happen.
With the Republican base firmly opposed to reform, the idea that adding any number of “Republican solutions” to health care reform could increase support with core Republican voters is a foolishness. You have a chicken-and-egg problem. The Republican base might be made slightly more open to reform if there were huge buy-in from Congressional Republicans, but a large number of Congressional Republicans would never buy in to a big, unpopular bill opposed overwhelmingly by their base.
The only real chance for Democrats to improve the standing of health care reform is to increase support with their base, and swing voters who would at least consider voting for Democrats. Provisions like a public option and Medicare buy-in appeal strongly to this group. Clearly, months of trying to move the bill to the right has only eaten away support from the left, and done nothing to improve health care reform’s standing with the Republican base.




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A successful bipartisian healthcare bill will hurt the republicans chances to retake the congress, so it wont happen. Millions of people like you and I know this but does Alice living in wonderland Obama know this? I mean intellectually does he really get that the repubs see working with him as aiding their own failure and in no case are they going to do that? Or is he as stuck on stupid as it seems somedays? Fifty two percent of the voters dont think he deserves reelection, wait until African Americans and Latino’s ( already happening) start feeling this way. I cant help but get the feeling that he is completely overwhelmed by his job title.
A party that gives a shit what their base thinks?
Of course the catch is the Republican base thinks what they’re told to think. Kinda like DKos or TPM for the Dems.
hmmm… that poster/sign looks pretty slick… i wonder who created/printed it, and, more importantly, who paid for it?
do i smell dick armey (see, PhRMA)?
AND THE KILLIN GOEZ ON AND ON AND…
Citizen Jon Walker and the Firepup Freedom Fighters:
Thank you for the post…reading intelligent and honest analysis of politics and social reality are all we have at this point when everyone seems to be lookin for love and survival in all the wrong places. We are gunna know in a couple a weeks whether or not Obama is really a dumb blond in disguise and the devil incarnate and your analysis of the political realities of healthcare reform are just what this old heart needs to keep on keepin’ on. Like I have said before, both the future of the wars we’ve made and the future of our economy are gunna be decided in the next 3 weeks and I’m bankin’ that Obama is NOT Milton Friedman.
KEEP THE FAITH AND PASS THE AMMUNITION, AND FOR GOD’S SAKE DON’T SHOOT THE FRIENDLIES!!!
part of the Zombie Democrat contingent, eh?
Hey, I have an idea, let’s ask the stupid people what we should do.
The republican base is either too rich to be bothered, or too dumb to come in out of the rain.
With that in mind, I’d say polls are about 49% useful, 49% of the time.
The rank-and-file Repub’s are manipulated at best, or stupid at worst.
The rank-and-file Dem’s are manipulated at best, or stupid at worst.
Clearly the best way to get a Democrats attention is to vote against them.
As usual great post Jon. To bad ObamaRahma won’t take your advice. So little time so many Big Corps. to take care of.
There’s a funny thing about the strong opposition to healthcare reform in the Republican base. The Republicans in Congress with the help of Dick Armey’s Freedomworks and Fox News Network went out and created that in seven months out of almost nothing.
And what did the Democrats do. Duck and cover. Duck and cover. Except for those who were on the gravy train and sold out.
Action removes the doubt that theory (and debate) cannot solve. Democrats in Congress should pass a strong healthcare reform bill that actually helps people and let the election take care of itself. Good results might even shatter Republican base unity. The problem has never been the voters and public support; it has been Democrats debating and pulling political moves on each other; they’re trying to give fraternity politics a good name.
“the catch is the Republican base thinks what they’re told to think. Kinda like DKos or TPM for the Dems.”
huh?
sorry, but that’s just nonsense. yes, there are a number of Obamabots at daily kos, and several at TPM, but as someone who reads/comments at both sites on a daily basis, i can tell you that your claim is a load of malarkey. there’s a diversity of opinions at both sites.
Well I’m hardly rank-and-file anything, but those 99:1 (a perfect correlation of this nature is almost unheard of) voters who oppose healthcare reform of any sort must not be facing that 40% rate hike being proposed by Anthem-BlueCross.
That’s $3000 right out of the pocket for most of us. Anthem/BlueCross’s ratonale for such a rate increase? That not enough healthy people are carrying their insurance anymore! The don’t seem to see that their excessive rates are driving people (even those that need it) OFF insurance and into the Emergency rooms.
So, when are Democrats going to realize they have nothing to lose by doing the right thing?
We have a coup playing itself out, to the benefit of the Oligarchs (not the usual object of concern for Democrats), in the Democratic party.
I’m left marveling at the power of cultism.
(also to alan@7);
At least we have established where it is we’re starting.
I watched a show last week that included in part a description of famous cellist, Yo-Yo Ma’s family history.
His father said something remarkable;
“It takes three generations to make a musician, the first has to get out of poverty, the second must secure an education, and the third gets to develope the musician.”
It looks as if we are about to start a simular process, only we’re re-developing democracy from scratch, and we’re not going to get to skip the poverty part either.
Blue Texan’s regularly scheduled post is already in progress: George W. Bush Disses Palin, “First Tea Party Senator” Marco Rubio
re-developing democracy from scratch?!!?
guess you haven’t noticed that we’re in the process of re-developing something else entirely.
they do have something to lose, they will lose the expected campaign donations from the health-profiteering sector.
Your observation is the key to gettting HCR passed RM…
Now, if the pee-pants dems in both houses could just get a spine maybe, just maybe, the country will get some health care reforms and the beginnings of cost relief.
Never gonna happen you say? Most likely, but a guy can still dream a little can’t he…
A failure to plan is a plan to fail.
That may apply to the Democratic party regarding health care reform, but it does not apply to the Republican party and health care reform.
The Republican party has been fighting and winning this war for decades.
Here is a link to a article on Ronald Reagan titled “Operation Coffeecup: Ronald Reagan’s Effort to Prevent the Enactment of Medicare”, by Larry DeWitt September 2004.
Scroll down to “The Campaign for Medicare” and the “Coffee-Klatsch Politics” sections if you don’t have time to read the whole essay. LINK
http://www.larrydewitt.net/Essays/Reagan.htm
The referenced recording issued by the AMA featuring Ronald Reagan (in 1961) and titled “Ronald Reagan Speaks Out Against Socialized Medicine” (which was medicare proposal at that time) may be heard here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRdLpem-AAs
“There’s a funny thing about the strong opposition to healthcare reform in the Republican base.The Republicans in Congress with the help of Dick Armey’s Freedomworks and Fox News Network went out and created that in seven months out of almost nothing.”
Not really, it had been done before. It was ready to go,be sure that the consultants and astroturfers had proposals ready to be presented prior to the election. Democratic wins = selling opportunities for these firms.
Now if the Democratic party failed to recognize, remember and learn from the history surrounding that issue, that is their mistake.
Attempting to do this as a bipartisan effort indicates?
Healthcare, imo, is a cynical distraction perpetrated by both parties. The real shit is happening where the real money is. Follow the Money!
“So, when are Democrats going to realize they have nothing to lose by doing the right thing?”
Except corporate contributions from insurance companies and other current beneficiaries of the current system, who are paying to make it better for them not the patients citizens and taxpayers.
Citizen fuckno:
Resepctfully, Citizen, havin’ actually seen the results of unlimited corporate warfare, assination of a President who tried to stop it and the collapse of democratic politics because of the nihilism of the anti-democratic left (read Stalinists here kid)…I put epithets from armchair radicals like you in the same place used toilet paper goes. Have a nice day.
keep living in the past citizen Flamethrower, nothing like arrested development to make one see things clearly.
To poll people regarding their general preference for an ill defined HCR effort is close to meaningless. If you were to ask people about their preference for specific reform measures then you might glean meaningful information about what changes if any the public prefers regarding the health care system we now have.
For instance if you were to ask me whether I like the mandated purchase of health insurance from unregulated monopolized private insurers I would say hell no. And yet that is a glaring feature of the Democratic Senate’s HCR bill.
So polls that do not ask meaningful questions will not get meaningful answers.
another reason that steadfast Dems. are dumber than doorknobs.
Citizen fuckno:
Speakin’ of arrested development, how’s the potty trainin comin there kid?
Citizen Flamethrower:
Speakin’ of potty training, how’s your adult diper rash treatin’ you gramps?
Calendula is the weapon of choice.
Just waitin to vote Obama out over here. I’m embarassed by him.
Clearly, months of trying to move the bill to the right has hurt effective health insurance reform itself. About time for the Dems to seize the narrative on this.
It’s hard to resist the temptation to divide into (non-political) parties/groups, usually for the need for affirmation. But it ultimately is harmful. Divide and conquer, even if self-driven, is a truism, like it or not. A lesson not lost on Republicans operatives, who are scrambling like crazy to fold the tea party folks into the Repub cause.
A failure to plan is a plan to fail indeed. What is the progressive plan to get rid of Conservadems in Congress?
(crickets)
Yeah, that’s been the plan since Reagan. That’s why we’re in the state we’re in right now. We need to be focused less on stupid polls and every other distraction of the week and totally focused on homegrowing candidates, identifying where we should run and who we should be challenging in the primaries. How to overcome the Dem Party’s obstacles.
Instead, we just bitch and moan.
Tell me, who’s running against Harry Reid in the next primary? Why haven’t we gotten someone to do so? Why is all the talk about not voting Dem (and letting the Repugs run the show) when the talk should be about ousting the Conservadems and replacing them with progressives? The talk, actually, should be well beyond that by now. We should have people already lined up and where we don’t our number one priority should be in finding them.
“To poll people regarding their general preference for an ill defined HCR effort is close to meaningless. If you were to ask people about their preference for specific reform measures then you might glean meaningful information about what changes if any the public prefers regarding the health care system we now have.”
Better analysis of this polling result than I have seen anywhere else.
The referenced poll has ten questions.
The only question specifically mentioning health care is #2.
From the Public Policy Polling link above :
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
press 3.
Support ………………………………………………….. 39%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 50%
No Opinion……………………………………………… 11%
To start: What is “President Obama’s health care plan”?
Seriously- other than Get something done what is the plan?
Question #1 also pertains to health care reform in that the continuing process that has been followed may be contributing to some disapproval among “consider democratic” (congressional )voters.
Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve…………….. 48%
Disapprove………… 47%
Not Sure……………. 6%
“So polls that do not ask meaningful questions will not get meaningful answers.”
Fortunately all involved with this poll including the media will recognize it for what it is.. and treat it with the importance it deserves. After all it is absolute proof that the way forward is to ask more incomplete questions to justify poorly thought out conclusions which will then lead to the next great ConservaDem compromise.
Who are these progressives you speak of? Franken, Sanders, Feingold, and Weiner all supported the Senate bill, the only thing that stopped it was Grijalva and massachusetts (Thank You!!), no thanks to Woolsey. Obama ran as a lefty, in case you forgot. Fuck em.
The reason that I posted my comment.
Health care reform illustrates how some combination of incompetent and/or
complicit the Democratic party has been over the last 30 years in it’s own failures.
As such, any potential candidate not aware of and willing to discuss this, and articulate how to do better in the future, will not be successful at producing a change if elected.
Grayson too.
I agree with you completely.
In fact by ridding the Dem party of people like Reid, Dodd, Bayh, and whomever else is abandoning ship there is left a vacuum that can be filled by leftist candidates that can draw stark differences between themselves and this brand of Dems that having power were monumentally inept and compromised and did nothing to benefit the country.
Sadly by the look of things the Dem party itself is only postulating the same sort of hapless candidates such as Coakley and Blumenthal who are no better than the ones that are leaving.
A leftist alternative candidate however may have a real chance of replacing these sorry excuses for legislators whose departure can not come too quickly.
The President can expand Medicare as an option for all Americans with a self sustaining buy in at any time without any Congressional approval using Executive Order. Since Medicare already exists and it is in financial trouble with the Baby Boomer’s coming of age it could be called a fix for the current system and not subject to a Supreme Court reversal. He needs to do it before Summer so Americans of all strips will see the benefit right away. Then he could let Congress fight it out over pre-existing conditions and annual caps on benefits. If Americans have another option the insurance industry will scramble to fix the other problems as fast as they can. If Congress is paralyzed, and it is then the President must be the mover.
One other thing. The tea baggers were encouraged to be formed by some very smart covert Liberals like myself. This is the way we can split the Republican Base. It will cost Safe Republicans their seats in THEIR primary elections. If the voters see some Lunatic ,Deather, Birther or other Racist Trash as the Republican Candidate a Smart Sensible Democrat will have an easier time in the general election. It worked in the New York congressional race and it WILL work elsewhere, like in Florida and Arizona. We must not allow some Smart Right Winger who claim to be a Progressives split the Democratic Base. Be wary of anyone claiming to be a Progressive who tells you not to vote for ANY Democrat or suggests you vote for a third party. Tell them to stick it and crawl back under their rock.
I don’t understand why there are still liberals out there that think Obama has a magic wand that can pass health care reform despite a Senate fillibuster.
Am I happy about the damn “comrpomises?” No. But they weren’t put in there just to make Olympia Snowe happy. We had Lieberman and Bayh to deal with too. They were right there with the Obstructicans.
What’s done is done. Would a more aggressive Obama approach have helped in the past? I personally doubt, but some think it might have. But we are where we are and have to deal with now. So suck it up.
Personally, I think those doubting Obama at this stage really don’t see the long-term strategy. Obama announced the health care summit after handing the Republicans their asses on their home turf. Obama is setting up all the talking points for November. From calling them out on the stimulus bill they were against before they were for to telling them their solution to health care only works in a fantasy, he created the talking points.
Combine this with his SOTU address, you have the Democratic equivelent of Karl Rove’s political strategy. Obama took the Republican’s biggest issue and his (supposed) biggest weakness, the deficit, and turned it on its head. Suddenly Obama is calling for spending freezes and the Republicans can only say “but but but.”
Now, I’m not crazy about the idea of a spending freeze, but I can see the mad ninja skills going on here. Obama tried, naively, to work with Republicans. He still holds out hope. That’s fine. But he has a backup plan. If they don’t cooperate, he’s going to use their own issues against them.
This is freaking brilliant.
I may disagree with Obama on policy issues, but Jesus, he’s the best we got right now. I truly think what seems like a “lucy and the football” moment coming up is actually some brilliant political juijitsu to force the Republicans’ hands.
Now, Harry Reid, on the other hand, has no political martial arts skills and continually lets the Republicans steamroll him. I’m sure it’s as frustrating for Obama as it is for us.
Good luck with that. Obama’s performance thus far has been a complete fiasco, laughably inept. One term, then Bye.
This President hasn’t shown any inclination to define what he wants, explain why he wants it, and pressure Congress to pass it. HCR was supposed to be his shining accomplishment, but he assured its failure by (1) entering into backdoor deals with Big PhRMA and the insurance companies before Congress began to consider HCR, (2) selecting sleazy Max Baucus to write the bill and shepherd it through the Senate, and (3) announcing that he would sign anything that Congress passed as long as it was budget neutral. No one should be surprised by the result, a spectacular failure that increases Big PhRMA and insurance company profits at the expense of sick people and taxpayers.
I assume he wanted this bill and now he’s stuck with it. His corporate handlers certainly won’t give him permission to add a public option and he’s ill disposed to the idea and too busy applying the Shock Doctrine to consider it.
parrotlover77 @ 41
“Personally, I think those doubting Obama at this stage really don’t see the long-term strategy.”
yeah, we do:
“The U.S. comptroller of the currency estimates that Goldman Sachs has a derivative “credit exposure” that is a whopping 858 percent of its risk-based capital and that JPMorgan Chase is in second place at 290 percent. That statement calls into question the savvy of President Obama, who crowed just last week in defense of Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Jamie Dimon, his old Chicago buddy who heads JPMorgan Chase, “I know both those guys; they are very savvy businessmen.”
Just follow the looting.
You are such a cry baby. Waaaahhh We had LieberLiar and Bayh to deal with. This is how to deal with them Joe, Evan, Kiss my bright shiny laptop.
A lazy, wimpy, and bright shiny object effort has not succeded.
Just what we need. [edited by mod.]
[MODNOTE; please keep your comments on the issues, not fellow commenters, thanks.]
That single statement you cite from Obama personifies him completely. He is a corporatist to the core.
How could the country have been so stupid as to elect this whore. Those who want to apologize for this piece of crap are welcome to him.
Actually a bill that’s not bipartisan is the best thing that could happen as nothing would have to be sacrificed and dems could really write a bill that would be really successful and actually work. That would turn the tide and dems would capture the public for decades as FDR did.
Healthcare reform can start now with no high price tag
Obama and Congress are taking the entirely wrong approach to healthcare reform. We can be doing so much right now to improve healthcare without suspicious price tags. There is nothing wrong with carrying out reform in two phases: the immediate and low price-tag phase, and the longer-term, let’s-find-the-money-first phase.
What can be done now, with little public opposition:
One group plan
Everyone would have access to insurance if all insurance companies were required to offer a plan to individuals as though they were all in one large company group plan, with the same rate and no exclusions. There is no cost to taxpayers; premiums are paid by the insured.
Guaranteed coverage and insurance market reforms
Few would argue with such provisions. The health insurance industry has been such a Wild West that companies could promise anything and provide nothing. They suffered no bad consequences when they blatantly breached contracts with subscribers. Other than enforcement, there would be no cost to taxpayers.
Essential benefits
An independent committee would define an “essential benefit package” as a minimum quality standard. It would include preventive services with no co-pays or deductibles, mental health services, and oral health and vision for children. It would cap the amount that consumers have to spend per year, and cost taxpayers nothing. Insurance companies could add features to this basic package. Now they can get away with not paying for basic services because most people do not have a choice of plans, and insurance plans are far too complicated to easily compare.
Individual responsibility
It is time for the government to be honest about the lifestyle factors that cause many of our healthcare problems. According to an article at preventdisease.com that is based on research reported in The New England Journal of Medicine, “preventable illness makes up approximately 80% of the burden of illness and 90% of all healthcare costs,” and “preventable illnesses account for eight of the nine leading categories of death.” This is the single most important factor in lowering healthcare costs and making people healthier. But in most ways it is not a role for government. It is up to individuals to change their habits. However, the federal government certainly shouldn’t be making the situation worse. That means telling the truth about the fast food and prepared food industries. And it means requiring that government agencies and contractors use part-time and telecommuting work arrangements so people have time to exercise and prepare food at home. A national campaign aimed at employers, encouraging them to use flexible schedules for workers, such as part-time and telecommuting, could do a lot of good, with the government itself taking the lead. Cost to taxpayers: nothing. In fact, there are potentially huge savings in lowered healthcare costs.
Pushing for results
It is time for ratings. Netflix movies are rated. EBay sellers are rated. This is established technology. It is time for a central web site that shows us ratings for healthcare providers. Some sites do this now, but there are too many with too few ratings and it is chaotic. An insurance company doing ratings of its providers is not an unbiased source. How good is that doctor / hospital / radiology lab anyhow? How effective? How organized? How long a wait? How polite? How accurate a bill? This costs little and offers so much in savings and making healthcare very effective quickly. No more money is wasted on ineffective providers. People get well much sooner. Providers change their methods to get better ratings. Cost to taxpayers: very little. Such a site would also reveal the really bad eggs . . . moving on to . . .
Making sure healthcare providers really do their job
States are supposed to enforce this now, but often don’t. According to a press release from Public Citizen’s Sidney Wolfe, MD, “Most state medical boards are doing a dangerously lax job in enforcing their state medical practice acts and adequately disciplining physicians.” In another article, Dr. Wolfe said that from 1990 to 2002, just five percent of U.S. physicians caused 54 percent of the nation’s malpractice lawsuit payments, basing his numbers on information from the National Practitioner Data Bank. A constant stream of reports show that hospitals are covering up mistakes. If states were doing their job, there would be little or no malpractice lawsuits. This is far more important than tort reform. With ratings, state regulators, properly funded and monitored, could spot and check on providers who are doing a poor job before they do something really really wrong. Such a practice would eliminate payments to incompetent providers and lower malpractice cost. Cost to taxpayers: very little.
Emphasizing primary care
Healthcare reform needs to enhance the partnership between patient and primary care doctor. The primary care doctor is the one who needs to be on top of what is happening with a patient, with whatever record-keeping system works best for him or her (usually a hybrid of paper and database. All-electronic record-keeping is not reliable yet). Primary care doctors need to be paid as much or more than specialists and be paid for phone call and record-keeping time instead of just doctor visit time. Many doctors are forced to use a more expensive visit when a phone call will do because they don’t get paid for phone time. Cost to taxpayers: nothing
Looking close at hospitals
Hospitals need to be very closely audited. Not only are there often bogus charges on bills, but the charges are far far beyond costs. No one really checks this, so they keep doing it. Employees wander around hospitals that don’t seem to be doing anything. Hospitals charge for unnecessary tests, with no one making sure that tests are based on research. Anyone who complains is ignored. Medical institutions are roach motels for our hard-earned dollars. Dollars check in but they don’t check out. Cost to taxpayers: very little.
A simple little thing
Refrigerator magnets can save millions. Yes, you read that right. A magnet can list the phone numbers, hours, and locations of urgent care centers that can be used during weekends and evenings instead of much more expensive emergency rooms. We now waste millions on non-emergency problems being treated in emergency rooms simply because people don’t know where else to go. Cost to taxpayers: very little.
Another simple little thing
Money is wasted on mailed Explanation of Benefits forms from insurance companies when this information could be provided for free via a secured web site. Cost to taxpayers: nothing.
These no- or low-cost changes would greatly improve care and save millions. They are the first step. There is no reason to delay them in order to get a “comprehensive” healthcare reform. No reform can possibly work without them in place first.
Patty Zevallos
media producer – web, video, print