OMB director Peter Orszag and MIT economists Jonathan Gruber are both very smart, successful individuals. While I may not agree with them on every policy, that does not mean I don’t respect their intelligence. Both have knowledge and perspective to add to the health care debate. The problem is that it turns out they have the exact same insider perspective.
We have recently learned that they are both effectively employees of the Obama administration. Both were heavily invested in shaping the health care bill, and that gives both of them a very strong desire to see it become law. Neither is an outside observer, despite the fact that Jonathan Gruber is allowing himself to be depicted that way in multiple media outlets. Gruber has been quoted in numerous newspaper articles, none of which, to my knowledge, disclosed his connection to the White House. In fact, when directly asked by the Washington Post before writing an Op-Ed on the excise tax if he had any conflict of interest he said no. In reality Gruber, like Orszag was a paid part of the Obama health care team, and his statements should have been treated just like Orszag’s.
Gruber was not an objective third party observer, he was an Obama health care team member. This is critically important for judging his public statements. He was financially, professionally, and emotionally invested in actively shaping the health care reform bill. This can’t help but affect judgment of the final product. Just like some film directors might be very good movie critics, that does not mean I would not be very skeptical of their personal reviews of their own movies. Do I think the film director is lying because he thinks his film is the best movie ever? No, I don’t doubt he honestly believes that the movie he helped make is amazing, but I would very much want someone else’s opinion. Gruber falsely allowed himself to be viewed as an independent movie critic when in reality he was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to help make the film.
Think back to Ron Brownstein’s article on cost control. It was heavily based on the statements of Gruber. Do you think Brownstein could have or would have written the same article if he replaced all of Gruber’s opinions with Peter Orszag’s? Do you think an article based on Orszag’s judgment of the bill would have been as well received, widely circulated, or strongly promoted by the White House as proof of the bill’s cost control measures? Clearly, the answer is no, and that is the problem. Those inside the bubble may completely believe what they say, but the problem is that they are inside the bubble. They inherently have blindspots as a result of being part of the team and invested in the outcome. They can’t properly judge what they have been paid to work on.
Gruber’s ethnical failing is that he allowed himself to be falsely depicted as an objective outsider judge, which he was not. Even if Gruber believed 100% everything he ever publicly said about the bill, that is not the point. Being a well-paid consultant working on the bill, in itself, can dramatically change one’s perspective. You can’t be paid well over $400,000 to work on a project, and still objectively judge it as an outsider. Gruber did a serious disservice to the health care debate with his lack of candor. If we wanted an insider’s perspective about the bill, we could just ask Peter Orszag. At least then we would honestly know what we were getting.



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exactly. and so obvious. one wonders why there is any controversy over this view at all!
but for those determined to keep the Senate bill exactly as is, and those determined to justify their change of position (see most members of House Progressive Caucus), any twig in a storm…
there is the rub
most people don’t realize when they are faced with this kind of conflict of interest, they WILL shade their opinion toward the investment they’ve made both professionally and personally
in other words, they can have the absolute best intentions and the highest integrity, it doesn’t matter, they would have CERTAINLY come to differant conclusions somewhere if it wasn’t their own work they were critisizing.
add to that, the fact that these people did know they had a conflict of interest and did not make that information available means in itself they do NOT have “the best intentions” NOR “the highest integrity”
their integrity obviously challenged, their “opinions” can no longer be considered anything but gamed
Conflict of what? The whole friggin Congress is one huge conflict of %.
Jonathon Gruber – Armstrong Williams.
It wasn’t legitimate when Williams was paid to shill for Bush. It isn’t legitimate when Gruber is a paid shill for Obama.
When the Bush administration was paying Armstrong Williams to talk up NCLB, we on the left were justifiably critical. I don’t see how anyone who’s being objective can look at Jonathan Gruber’s relationship with the Obama administration and not be just as critical.
What does Ron Brownstein think about being suckered? Has anyone asked him if he wants to re-evaluate his must-read CoS-assigned article relying heavily on Gruber’s purchased analysis? Who steered him to Gruber, do you suppose?
Brownstein needs to provide background on how his article came to be. And what he thinks of his own reliance on a single-source analysis, now.
When the sad story of this health reform effort is written, fake experts like Gruber will feature prominently. It’s been noted before that the letter from 23 economists, including Gruber, stating the four “pillars” of reform appeared to have been reverse engineered from the Senate bill. It’s been noted before that the administration and other pro-reform people had advance copies of Gruber’s analyses and vice versa.
What remains unclear is whether the HHS/CMS actually used Gruber’s model in generating the actuary’s report. More to be revealed.
To understand the systemic nature of crony capitalism in America is to understand that “democracy” is just another commodity to Wall Street. And Congress and the White House are loaded with moral slimeballs more than willing to sell their souls for the almighty dollar. It’s all about the money.
Under what circumstances does breaking legal and ethical law become a crime? There were no limits to unpunishable crimes in the Bush/Chaney administration…did Bush/Chaney change that to include all administrations for always. Crimes were rewarded under Bush..will this be the norm forever? Will we always have to live under a broken Constitution and legal system? So many questions and no revolution in sight.
Dr. Gruber is not a fake expert. He scored a political own goal by failing to disclose an obvious, direct conflict of interest. As Jon and perris have said, it is impossible not to be emotionally and professionally invested in working toward an outcome he was so responsible for. That generates bias, as any objective professional researcher would tell you. The public was entitled to know this information so that it could weigh and/or correct for that bias. It was denied the opportunity earlier to do so.
Good for Gruber that Camp Obama picked him for his expertise to become part of their design and marketing team for health insurance “reform”. That he thereby became a made man the public was entitled to know so that it could counter the probable shading of his advocacy. He let us down, and the cause of reform in general, regardless of the objective merits of his work.
Actually, Brownstein did make a comment today. Quick drive by but google news has it under Gruber.
BTW I’m glad you are a part of the crack FDL team on prop.8
Jon,
I just don’t know how you can possibly come to this conclusion. Dr. Gruber must be innocent as driven snow because Ezra Klein thinks so. Even if Ezra didn’t know about Dr. Gruber’s funding sources.
You probably even believe that Timothy Geithner & the New York Federal Reserve were trying to hide the ball when they emailed AIG not to disclose those AIG counter-party payments to Goldman Sachs & Co.
Both sets of folks deny any impropriety, or even the appearance of any impropriety.
I’ve got to tell you I’m gonna believe them…totally! And not my lying eyes!
How could I not?
P.S. Twas snark for those with snark-resistant eyewear. *g*
Over paid insider, unobjective outsider, B movie producer, no academy award for you.
Michael Mann anyone?
I will note that there seem to be two different definitions of “expert”. There’s the scientific expert. And then there’s the economic expert.
If a physicist were to repeatedly proclaim what is contradicted by experience, his status as expert would erode over time. However, an economist *must* repeatedly proclaim a specific set of assumptions contradicted by experience, *or else* his status as an expert will erode over time.
Anyone with experience in bargaining and negotiations knows that it is harder to gain new ground than to hold existing ground. Which brings into question the assumption that the impact of ongoing increases in real insurance premiums pushing down real wages is the same as the impact of a one-off decrease in real premiums (because employers drop down to less comprehensive plans) in delivering automatic wage gains.
Why make the assumption? Is it confirmed by the evidence, proving the that clever people have discovered something real out there that contradicting our less rigorously tested experience?
No: its built into the model from the start. Its built into the empirical testing that is done: the evidence, in fact, is not given an opportunity to contradict the assumption.
It is, in other words, one more falsified assumption, “required” in order to use the preferred modeling approach. that 80%~90% of economists rely upon religiously.
You said it better than I could have phrased it. I can find no testing of this model – the assumptions are not backed up by either research I have seen, or by my experience as an Actuary.
The attack on unions effect may indeed be the main reason it is presented as a needed part of the plan – indeed it does get GOP support (while they still vote no on the total bill).
We keep giving people we consider intelligent, or have degree’s sticking out their asses, credit for all of that.
It has been this type of person that has F-up our Country in everyway, because they also thought they were smart.
It might be time to judge people on what they do, and not on the paper they are writen on. Washington is the best example of this. With all the smart people there, one would think that no problem is to big to solve, and our Country and people would be tops in the world.
We soon will be a third world Country because of all those smart people.
This looks like tobacco-is-good science or no-climate-change science. The admin needed support so they went shopping and found a guy who had a pre-existing theory and a model that gave the outcomes they needed, and seemingly sincerely believed in them, so he’s who they hired. Not necessary to charge that he cooked the science to fit the client’s agenda, note that he evidently had the model first. None of which in any way excuses the disclosure lapses when it comes to his expert testimony in the HCSR debate, it’s just that I suggest they be considered separately from any doubts about the money tainting the science.
One difference from tobacco-is-good science or no-climate-change science: those are in actually scientific fields, whereas Gruber is doing economics, that dismalest of the sciences.
I’ve known more than one top producer in the insurance industry. Its difficult to imagine one of them selling low price over higher quality. Its like depending on Rush Limbaugh to cut health care costs. Insurance companies will in my opinion gladly support the Obama proposal then bury the hatchet laughing all the way to the bank.
ot
Whoa are you folks aware of this
Obama Re-Nominates Dawn Johnsen For OLC
http://crooksandliars.com/nicole-belle/obama-re-nominates-dawn-johnsen-olc
In all the threads on Gruber, I’m not sure if anyone yet mentioned what I consider an equally, perhaps even more, egregious disclosure lapse.
As noted by a physician from Florida in a letter posted by Physicians for a National Health Program (PNHP), Max Baucus recently published a policy article on health care reform in the New England Journal of Medicine and claimed no financial interests worth disclosing.
Dr. Howard Green wrote in an as-yet unpublished letter to NEJM,
Full text of the letter at the link I provided above.
I just checked, and the journal has yet to publish a letter, by Dr. Green or anyone else, objecting to this breach of disclosure.
HCR has certainly provided a rams from the goats tableaux hasn’t it – just saw a post from a longtime friend of FDL accusing Emptywheel of “smear tactics” for her work on Gruber
am starting to wonder if there is a bottom. really, what’s it gonna take for the apologists to quit apologizing ?!?!
yeah, that one hurt
if you’re referring to the post i think you are, i left a comment with a factual correction but no argument re the conclusions drawn. was hoping that some dots would be connected.
Not to defend Max Baucus but how could anyone not be aware Baucus is the guy writing the bill.
Everyone knows he’s writing the bill. Not everyone knows how much industry lobbyists paid him to do so. Those campaign contributions constitute a financial interest that should have been disclosed in the NEJM as well as to the public more generally.
How did Gruber get this far with no journalist asking him if he had any conflicts of interest?
They did he lied to them so claims the NYT and washington post.
Huh? As phred said, this is about his failure to make financial disclosures regarding contributions from industries with direct interests in the legislation he was championing.
Ugh:
“Amish families exempt from insurance mandate
HEALTH REFORM: People with religious objections can opt out” (http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20100109/NEWS02/301099964)
Guess it’s time to create that People_Who_Wear_Cats_As_Hats church …
Meanwhile, the hedgers are signaling their intent to destroy another market for big profits: “Contrarian Investor Sees Economic Crash in China” (http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/article/108534/contrarian-investor-sees-economic-crash-in-china?mod=retire-planning)