Apparently, the political bubble in Washington is now made with a completely non-transparent slime. Democrats actually believe they will get a huge bounce from passing the Senate bill. (Via Ben Smith at Politico)
[A]n official predicted to me the other day that Obama’s numbers would hit 60 after the health care bill passes, and Chuck Schumer seems to think roughly the same thing: that the public polling on the Democratic reform bill will turn around “soon.”
When people see what is in this bill and when people see what it does, they will come around,” Schumer said. “The reason people are negative is not the substance of the bill, but the fears that the opponents have laid out. When those fears don’t materialize, and people see the good in the bill, the numbers are going to go up.”
This statement from Schumer does not make any sense. No one is going to “see what it does” until 2014. They are going to pass something called “health care reform,” but, for 99% of Americans, it means basically no change until 2014. That definitely does not sound like a recipe to win over a skeptical public.
I simply do not believe people will be more happy about this pile of broken promises and corporate giveaways, because after it passes nothing (good or bad) happens until half way through Obama’s second term. The damage Obama has done to the base by refusing to fight for real reform will not be repaired easily. I would also definitely not want to be a Democrat who voted for this needing to explain to everyone during my 2010 and 2012 campaigns why nothing has been reformed.
The best possible outcome for Democrats seems to be the hope that people who are angry about this bill will find something new to be even more angry about by the 2010 midterm election. The worst possible outcome is that people still fear what will happen when the bill goes into effect and blame Democrats for everything that is wrong with the health care system they claimed to have fixed. Either way, I don’t see how you get more than a dead cat bounce out of a bill no one will feel for years.



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That story confirmed for me that the Democratic Party is out to lunch, way out.
The “winners” controlled the media for a solid 24 hours & showered us with Supporting evidence like the AMA’s support & Obama’s proclamation that this is great for us. How could they not get a bounce? Let’s not forget the Bushies mantra on spin: “a bounce is a bounce until it disappears, then it’s time to change the subject.”
Here’s a thought sure to bring holiday cheer: the future of the Democratic Party rests with the House response to the Senate Bill. Maybe there’s hope, I doubt even the HealthCare has enough to pay off Congressman to the same extent they did our Senators.
These Democrats in Congress are a piece of work!!! I am waiting for the Obama Administration to totally repudiate the Bush Doctrine!!! And single payer–might come when the troops come home from Iraq and Afghanistan and when the embassy construction in Iraq and Afganistan and now Pakistan ends….
Those Democrats who willingly supported the Bush-Cheney War in Iraq still want the dumb, naive, ignorant and gullible to believe the b.s. that they were only listening to Bush administration officials that Saddam Hussein had WMD. Having WMD in and of itself still does not make any case for war a legtimate argument. Yes, these Dems in Congress always thought they had the out that the Bushies “told us there were WMD in Iraq.” Please!
Gotta love these Democrats though!!! They sure know how to get things done….lol
you assume Obama will get a second term. i hope my doubts are wrong.
Jon, this bill could clearly use a ton of improvement, but I think it would greatly help your case if you explicitly said whether you think this bill does more harm than good. Maybe you have already stated that, I don’t know. But I myself think it’s really difficult to establish that it does more harm than good. My view is instead that we can get a better bill through reconciliation, this bill still probably being better than nothing.
Nate Silver’s comment that if we used reconciliation, the non-reconciliation part of the bill would be struck down by an angry Lieberman, Nelson, etc. may well be true. But the good news is that the part we can pass is probably the best part, and the scenario of passing only the reconciled bill now still avoids a humiliating defeat for the Democrats while also preserving more chance for passing better provisions later.
I think you may have missed this argument and hope you will consider using it to reply to Nate.
I don’t see how he’s going to get a bounce out of this either; but perhaps I under-estimate the power of MSM propaganda, aided by the “Democratic Strategists” and other apparatchiki connected to the Party.
People distort the health care debate by saying that if the current legislation is killed we won’t see health care legislation again for ten or fifteen years. But think about what will happen if the current health care bill actually does pass. The legislation won’t really start going into full effect until 2014. Now Democrats love to claim that there will be incremental changes over time to make it better. So consider when those incremental changes would actually have a chance to start being considered. Sometime after 2014 apparently. The nightmare of passing the current health care bill is that we’ll be stuck with it for quite a while. Even worse, if it turns out to be incredibly unpopular with Americans, the GOP will start running on health care reform in the future and then you can pretty much kiss any chance of incrementally changing the legislation goodbye.
I think Jon has said that this bill is worse than nothing in a number of earlier posts. Also, while Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson may wish to voye against a regulatory bill out of spite, provided the reforms that can be passed under reconciliation are passed first, the insurance companies can either accept regulation, or not get the mandate, the exchange, and any possibility that Americans will be able to use the subsidies to buy their insurance. Faced with that kind of situation, I don’t believe that Joe and Ben will piss off their insurance bosses by voting against regulation when that is the price that must be paud for the mandates, the exchange, and any possibility of competing with the Medicare expansion and the public option plan that hopefully would be passed under reconciliation.
“I don’t see how he’s going to get a bounce out of this either; but perhaps I under-estimate the power of MSM propaganda, aided by the “Democratic Strategists” and other apparatchiki connected to the Party.”
I agree. I don’t see how he can ‘bounce’. But then again, there are so many naive, ignorant folks out there, who knows. Ignorant folk such as these two …….
From Salon.com
1) “The FDL sock puppet machine is working overtime today
Once Obama signs this bill, his approval ratings will jump back up. He’ll have a big win and an actual bill to talk about instead of a hypothetical one.
The whining netroots can just suck it.
—Chuchundra
and this ignorant response from the same article:
2) “MANY HAVE NOT READ THE BILL
So many have gotten so stuck on the ‘term. Pubic Option that they fail to look beyond what this health care reform really offers.
Besides it is a beginig to build on.”
link:
http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2009/12/21/hcr_polling/index.html
I’m thinking the 1st poster, is Rahm himself. The 2nd poster is obviously drunk. :-)
I haven’t seen anywhere recently where Jon has actually come out and stated whether this bill is better than nothing. He just says it’s really bad. Really bad, maybe, but would doing nothing be really really bad? It would be good to address this question.
Also, it might be true that Ben and Joe would do as you suggest, but if they wouldn’t, which is entirely possible, it’s good to know that we still come out ahead. We need to also consider worse than optimal scenarios.
This bill is like a farm who is starving and forced to eat their planting seeds.
It you help some in the short term by filling your bill but it will doom you in the long run when you have no grain left to sow the fields.
If Ben and Joe won’t then some of the Republicans will serve their coprorate masters and vote for it.
Hi EWS, Well, maybe they’re right. There’s always the possibility that the smart money is right. It’s just that they get surprised so much of the time.
In the half-assed words of Claire McCaskill: “These guys are Idiots!”
That’s not directly answering the question! Is it or isn’t it better than doing nothing? Or maybe you’re unsure?
If so, fine. Just say so. But if we want to rationally consider all possibilities, the question does need to be addressed. I think doing that will probably help strengthen your argument, for reasons stated above.
Khin, Let me help you out, obviously you’re in need. The Senate Bill IS a DISASTER, it IS worse than nothing. Read today’s Ariana Huffington conclusion “Leave no special interest behind” for a further explanation. She does a great job summing up what Jon’s been arguing for months.
Here’s what the “obama-kool-aid drinkers” refuse to see (or believe that the average person cannot fathom: if you can’t get what you want with a democratic president, a 60-seat majority in the Senate, and a big majority in the House, how are you going to EVER “improve” upon anything in the future when you no longer have these majorities? Just watch – you’ll see the water-carriers next year telling us that we have to go out and vote to put a larger majority in Congress; they will tell us that only a seventy (70) seat majority in the Senate will get us that “change-we-can-believe-in”.
Don’t the kool-aid drinkers realize that the republicans are going to accuse them of “raising taxes” (which they will have done)? After watering down the bill to effect a corporate give-a-way, the republicans are going to use it to beat them over the head with it? Why continue to belong to a political party that is that stupid?
I’m done with the democrats. I’ll vote for another democrat when they prove to me with some legislation that they want my vote. I’m not going to fall for another false campaign promise.
When republicans are in power, corporations and religious zealots get what they want.
When democrats are in power, corporations and religious zealots get what they want.
There’s gonna be a “bounce” alright…
We’ve got to “bounce” those weak-kneed, pee-your pants and bed wetting pussies who voted for a mandate out of office in 2010.
NO PUBLIC OPTIONS = NO MANDATES! What’s so hard to understand?
Be put on notice Pres. Obama, you could be next if you don’t fight to overturn the mandate, get Americans a real public option and get anti-trust legislation passed that breaks up the health insurance mafia…
That’s not a threat, Mr. President, that’s a promise…