While the House health care reform bill is the one favored by progressives, it also happens to be more small “c” conservative than that Senate bill. This is not about the public option, the size of government subsidies, or regulation. The House bill is more small “c” conservative because it would do a better job of maintaining a health care system similar to the one we currently have. The reason for this is the employer mandate.
The House bill has a mandate that large businesses provide their employees health insurance or face a penalty. For large businesses, the penalty for not providing health insurance is 8% of payroll. That is a serious penalty. Employers would also now have a new and very easy way to give their employees “employer-provided health insurance.” They would be able to simply provide their employees with vouchers to use toward the purchase of any plan they wanted on the new exchange.
The ease of providing insurance, the size of the penalty, and the tax-free status of employer-provided health benefits combine to create little financial incentive for companies to stop providing health insurance. I suspect if the House bill were to become law, we would still have a health insurance system built primarily on employer provided and funded health insurance for years to come. This lack of radical change is what makes the bill so small “c” conservative.
The Senate bill does not have an employer mandate. It has a very weak modification of the “free rider” provision. In practice, if a large company decided to stop providing health insurance, they would face only a $750 per employee fine. This is a pittance compared to the House’s employer mandate, or the cost of providing health insurance.
If reform works properly and everyone is able to get decent, relatively affordable health insurance on the new exchange (this a big “if,” given how poorly the reform bill is designed), businesses are going to start rethinking why they are providing incredibly expensive health insurance. Why keep paying for your employees health care if the government will help make sure they get health insurance anyway?
I can easily picture a mass dropping of employer-provided health insurance in the future if the Senate bill becomes law. It will not happen right away. Businesses are still stuck in their old ways, and no one really knows if the exchange will work. But during the next economic downturn, the cost-cutting solution by businesses might be a massive dropping of health insurance benefits instead of massive layoffs. Because the Senate bill has the serious potential to undermine our current employer provided and funded health insurance system, the Senate version is the truly radical bill.
I’m no defender of employer-provided health insurance–I want to see it eliminated–but passing a bill that will encourage its collapse without a real plan to replace it in a fiscally sound manner seems like pure madness. (And it is going to be a real fight when Congress needs to pick up the pieces.) Big business doesn’t want to be forced to provide their employees health insurance, but also doesn’t want the country to move away from the employer-provided health care system. It is a schizophrenic catch-22. The House bill would at least encourage us to gradually move from an employer-selected insurance system to simply an employer-funded insurance system (like many industrialized nations).
While Senators like to claim their bill is more “moderate,” in reality, they are refusing to adopt the most small “c” conservative health care reform idea: a strong employer mandate. The Senate also expands insurance coverage 12% less cost effectively than the House bill. The Senate bill is not more moderate, it is only more beholden to wishes of big business.



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Interesting analysis. Got to hand it to you, reading your posts is an education. I’m much obliged.
jon, repeating my question from your post on cost:
the reason i’m asking again, is that i don’t think you can conclude anything about cost from only the cbo revenue and spending numbers.
Optimistically, a sudden crisis like that (especially in the midst of such high unemployment, which might get worse before it gets better, if it gets better) might lead to more mature policy debates, and weaken one of the insurance industry’s and BigPharma’s biggest objections to single payer: they employ a lot of people. It shouldn’t be like that, but sometimes things have to get worse before they get better. Americans are worried, but they’re still pretty complacent, seems to me.
This is an alternate, optimistic scenario (if I’ve understood you correctly): that we move toward an ‘all payer’ system like Germany’s.
And just because your employer all of a sudden decides to stop paying for your health care doesn’t mean you’re going to be paid more as compensation for losing employer-paid health insurance. I would be extremely surprised if the majority of employers who eliminated employee health insurance under such a scenario went on to increase the employess’ pay. Extremely surprised.
If I am understanding correctly, this bill, crappy as it is, may in fact work towards single payer or “all payer” system in the long run. And since I have serious pessimistic views regarding our economy and rate of recovery, as things stand today, it may happen faster than we think. (And there will be howls of outrage and all kinds of wacko accusations). Do I have this right?
Jon, I want to thank you for your thoughtful and prolific analysis …. I’m so getting an education here.
Employer-provide health insurance has been collapsing for the past ten years; that’s what is fueling this demand for reform.
The choices are: (1) watch the collapse accelerate and do nothing (the Republican plan), (2) do something that might accelerate it even faster, but in a way that provides a fiscal drain on the budget (the Senate plan), (3) try to forestall it by providing an employer-funded system (the House plan), (4) move to a single-payer system funded through a progressive tax on individuals and corporations (the road not taken).
This legislation will be revisited before the implementation of the exchanges. Businesses will shed healthcare insurance at an accelerated rate in anticipation of the exchanges under either plan. So which plan provides the ability to pick up the folks who will fall through the cracks?
Just connected to C-Span and, oh lordy, it’s Granny McConnell telling us how the public doesn’t support this bill blah blah blah.
That is like saying the Obama/Geithner bailout of Wall Street was favored by progressives over the Bush/Paulson bailout.
In other other words, one house of Congress caved into the conservatives and the health care industry 80% of the time instead of 85%.
Who among us will be rivited by the debate in Congress over which sorry-ass rendition makes it to the sorry-ass desk of President Obama?
Jon,
I don’t disagree with a word you’ve said, but a little “c” word applies to both bills: corporatist. The House and Senate bills embody two competing plans for the insurance industry to come up with a business model by the real start-up date (2013 or 2014) when the cement dries around our feet.
That they are getting all this time is something the public has yet to understand. The plan, evidently, is to implement immediate reforms that cut down on the Sicko stories. That is to placate us while the industry settles us into a permanent private insurance regime we’ll be powerless to stop because they’ll be even stronger than they now are.
What is the difference? So far here’s what I see.
The House would have employers and insurance providers hash out policy terms that meet minimal standards (and I do mean minimal). The results would help set a benchmark for basic coverage. Since this will take place while an exceptionally weak labor movement watches – weak even for this country, with unemployment expected to be at historic highs throughout the period – we know at whose expense the numbers will be balanced. That’s one business development model.
The Senate’s foresees implementation of an interstate insurance market through the sale of “nationwide plans.” Employers can drop out of the mix, allowing insuraers to offer “consumer-driven coverage.” Wendell Potter has described this model. With an ongoing antitrust exemption industry consolidation will intensify as a national market takes shape. That’s the other business model.
The bills thus pose a choice between two devils we don’t know. If one dotted line is better than the other for us to sign, you tell me which you think it is. I for one want both forms torn to shreds.
The remarkable thing is that throughout this travesty we’ve been distracted by one shiny object after another: death panels, communism, Stupak, the public option. Yet, as we stand here today, the only interesting question is this: Whose plan for wedding us to a monolith, in sickness and in health, for richer or poorer, till death us do part, will win out?
Which marriage made in hell do you prefer? That is the big question. And, fools that we are, we don’t even see it.
Moving away from basing each Americans healthcare access/delivery on individual employment status is central to creation of Health Security for all Americans.
This current sham healthcare reform is much more about keeping the current regime of employer/employment based healthcare insurance channeled through for profit health insurers in place.
For Americans who end up in part time,contractor status,marital status based insurance coverage or are unable to bridge gaps in between employed status or want to stay insured but switch employers the current American healthcare regime is draconian.
In some deeply felt ways I actually hope the Rs manage to sink this round of so called American healthcare reform. This has been a very compromised from getgo Democratic Party attempt at reform from Obama WH,Congressional D so called leaders and the full court rampant money politics framing.
Barack Obama is a fake D and clearly at no time ever intended to do what is needed to bring about American Health Security. Barack Obama is feckless in view of what he was selling during 2008 campaign and what he is delivering here in 2009.
This round of American healthcare reform has been in most ways quite pointless. The for profit insurers are scoring big and surely will come out the winners for next ten years based on what this so called reform is doing or not doing. The Democrats really should stop trying to abuse the truths and facts of what they did not do here in 2009. It is insulting.
I hope the Rs sink this reform. I hope the Ds take some big hits in 2010 elections and perhaps lose enough to switch one or both sides of Congress back to R rule. It will serve Barack Obama right to have to practice his perverse bipartisanship driven WH positions with the Rs in charge.
This reform has proved to be mostly pointless. A campaign funding rainmaker it surely was and has been.
I hope the Rs sink it. Rs defeating it serves a longer,better outcome. The Ds spinelessness since 2006 has been central to how the Ds perform as a party in WashingtonDC. Trying to get the D Party to do the right thing is like pushing a logchain. Better to feed the Rs being they seem better equiped to bring about real collapse of current WashingtonDC regime. The taint of money politics has made WashingtonDC ripe for turnover. The rot and decay have well set it. This is a fundamental result of American two party politics having been usurped by money politics.
Can we change over to multi-party format? The Ds and Rs sure as hell do not want that but it is only way out of current political quaqmire Congress and WH have fallen into. Meanwhile let the Rs wreak ruin. It is more useful in long run than the Ds spinelessness. Progressives just got a big kick in the ass from the D Party. Barack Obama is not singing the tune he was singing in 2008. If Pelosi,Reid and Emanuel are going to behave like this towards Progressives then let them suffer under R rule. Maybe they will join the R Party. They sure as hell are indifferent to who puts the D Party in power.
As for slow to pick up Barack Obama backers it is way past time to wake up and smell the betray.
Way past.
Senate bill lacks the COBRA extension; see Sec 113 of House measure.
COBRA extension would allow those on COBRA or state COBRA extensions to continue with their plans until the exchanges are established.
Without that millions of unemployed will lose their coverage because anyone with a significant pre-existing condition — and that includes being on almost any maintenance drug for asthma, diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol — cant buy insurance at any price.
Please spread the word to lobby for this in the conference and Senate amendments.
Should have been the foundation of HCR
Both bills are trash, but for my own selfish reasons the Senate bill is worse because of the opt-out bullshit for states. Living in one of the reddest states in the country that has yet to emerge into the 20th century {the 21st century hasn’t happened here yet}, we are doomed under this bill. As someone with a pre-existing condition I may as well reserve my cemetary plot as my X-mas gift to myself.
Just out of curiosity, if Americans can be incarcerated for not buying over-priced insurance, will we get the medical care we are denied by being law abiding citizens? Imagine the strain on the penal system when 47 million Americans show up for medical care. Serves the bastards right!
Yet another great post Jon that helps to shed the light on the steaming, festering gobs of crap hidden in the dark rooms of Congress that is HCR.
I greatly appreciate what you, DDay, Mz. Hamsher, FDL and all those who comment with insight and detail do for those of us unable to read thru thousands of pages and compile summaries of what it’s all about.
It’s how informing an electorate is done these days (can’t count on MSM of course) and it’s the path to real change. as education and information and understanding are ALWAYS the paths to change, be it personal growth or change that leads to better policy.
We may not be winning in terms of the goals we progs/libs want, but we sure as shit aren’t losing as much and as fast as we were.
And as I’ve said recently, I’m DAMN happy about ONE little thing.
Our education and growing awareness and desire to hammer details and hammer elected offals and blame corporate feudalists for their greed must really be ticking them all off. And they haven’t even seen the TIP of this public/populist raging iceberg emerge yet.
And if they don’t GET it, now, in the future they are gonna wish they’d tried to placate us better for our own good when they had the fuckin chance.
I hope they all get indigestion from too much lobster cream sauce and Louis XIII.
*G*
I am indeed referring to something like Germany or Belgium. The health care is paid mostly by a payroll tax or payroll employer contribution.