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The CBO has concluded that the design of the opt-out provision will end up denying the public option to roughly a third of the population in this country.
CBO’s analysis took into account the probability that some states would opt not to allow the public plan to be offered to their residents. Rather than trying to judge which states might opt out, CBO applied a probability recognizing that public opinion is divided regarding the desirability of a public plan and that some states might have difficulty enacting legislation to opt out. Overall, CBO’s assessment was that about two-thirds of the population would be expected to have a public plan available in their state.
This estimates sounds a bit low to be honest. There are currently eleven state governments completely controlled by Republicans. (AZ, FL, GA, ID, NE, ND, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA) Roughly 79 million people (26% of Americans) live in these states, and I would not be surprised if everyone of them opt-out of the public option right away, or at least sometime before 2014. In addition to these eleven, there are easily another dozen conservative states where I suspect the Republican party can gain complete control of the state government for at least some period of time in the next 4 years. Add to that that not all Democrats fully support the public option, and I estimate it is more likely that over 40% of the country will be opted out of the public option before it is ever made available.
It’s great to see that the Democrats have put the health care of the people of Texas at the tender mercy of Rick Perry. I guess the new motto is: Universal affordable quality health insurance for everyone lucky enough not to live a red state.
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Disagree. People in those states will come unglued if denied the PO. If not immediately, within a few years every state will have the PO.
Can an individual sue their state for the denial of the right of health care access to the PO?
It would not be a jump to show “harm” and “duress”.
IANAL.
I’m growing fatigued with this issue. If it takes an Opt-Out to get it passed, so be it. Let the GOP defend their decision against the voters AFTER they’ve opted out. If they continue to get re-elected after that, then I guess we get the government we deserve.
I assume they are simply opting out of the public option, but the mandate still applies?
Being mandated to buy a shitty private product will be a disaster! An insurance company would be crazy not to take advantage by raising rates in that environment!
Living as I do in one of the states listed, I am pretty certain my state will choose to opt-out. The hot coal to swallow is the mandate that I must purchase insurance, without a public option, from the companies that have the monopoly in this state. The same companies that have screwed us. The people in the state I live in, are the gun toting fruitcakes we saw last summer. IMHO, they will see this as a great step in the right direction. All that is needed to put them over the top in jubilation will be tax cuts for these monopolies and for the wealthy.
Yup. The mandate gives them legal right to say “bend over”. Or at least that is my read of it. We’re screwed.
Virginia is already preparing to opt out
What a way to knock out some more Republicans. Expose their cold cold hearts
So how do you, as a member of Congress in favor of reform, vote for a bill that includes opt-out knowing full well that the state you represent is likely to opt out? What kind of betrayal is that to your constituents?
And how could state reps (usually with two year terms) defend to their Constituents that they are compelling them to accept mandatory Health Care but deny them a public option?
This is actually much more of a time bomb for Republicans. The State Reps can’t influence the Congress…they can grouse…but they have to accept the Federal “mandates”. But to deny their voters access to a public option would be stupid.
They can opt out and no one will realize because it will be four years until the public option is allowed to start selling policies
Not that it matters in the big scheme of things, or that it counts, but I am so pissed off I could spit nails. I just gotta find the target.
Given that the opt-out is so terrible, when will FDL change its position and work to kill this travesty of a bill? If the opt-out the straw that breaks the proverbial camel’s back, or does it still come down to the mantra well, there are two possibilities 1) the bill with a PO, or 2) the bill without a PO, would you rather have it with, or without?
Every state will have it soon after the first ones get funded. the models that these are resting on are simply too strong! http://cli.gs/23yYaM/