IMO, Specter is to stimulus as Snowe is to health care. I think Snowe will vote for it, despite what she said. She’s making a last ditch effort to shore up her numbers among Maine Republicans which are dismal. Once she fails and realizes she can never win another Republican primary again, she’ll have a new calculus. I think she’ll be more likely to vote for it than Lieberman or Nelson, who I don’t think will…thus reconciliation will be the only route and Snowe’s vote won’t matter. Anyway, no harm in talking to her, I guarantee Reid didn’t give her hope on triggers.

Reid’s tax increase on capital gains will generate $100 billion over 10 years. That’s a significant watering-down of the House bill which will raise amost $500 billion from the millionaire tax over 10 years. By way of comparison the Cadillac tax will raise $200 billion during the first 10 years and much more after that.

I oppose using the capital gains tax to pay for reform, because Congress has shown tremendous willingness to lower this tax over the years, particularly in response to what other countries do. It is not a new secure revenue stream like the millionaire tax. I oppose the Cadillac tax because it violates Obama’s pledge not to raise taxes on the middle class and falls disproportionately on the sick and on unions.

Under review now, they say.