Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is signaling that health care reform might not be passed before the end of the year, and could slip into the next. That would be a big disappointment for President Obama, who wants reform wrapped up quickly. The fault for the slowdown is not solely because of disagreements between the senators. Because of the complicated nature of the bill, the Congressional Budget Office is having trouble getting full analysis of different provisions back to Reid as quickly as hoped.

As long has Reid can muster the votes, it is fairly inconsequential if health care reform is finally signed into law in early February 2010 instead of late December 2009. Finishing by the end of the year is more a psychological goal line than anything else. The real fear among some pro-reform individuals is that if deadlines keep getting ignored, reform would die from endless delays. Eventually, the bill will be pushed up against the 2010 midterm election, and vulnerable Democrats will refuse to vote for anything.

Of course, the reverse could be equally true. If reform is delayed until closer to the midterm election, the pressure to get a bill passed could be felt strongly by conservative Democrats. Even if overall reform polls as slightly unpopular, passing something would clearly be better than complete failure. If Democrats with huge majorities spend almost a full year working on health care and fail to pass a bill, it would be disastrous for swing-district Democrats. The base would be incredibly disheartened and the party would look completely incapable of functioning. The closer the vote is to the election might also be good news for the public option. It remains one of the most popular provisions in health care reform and support for it has been growing steadily since August.