The biggest overlooked aspect of the NY-23rd special congressional election is Democratic candidate Bill Owens. NY-23 is a Republican-leaning district but not overwhelmingly so. George W. Bush just barely beat Al Gore in 2000 (49%-47%), and in 2008 Obama easily carried the district (52%-47%). It is a reddish district but not deep red.
Bill Owens is a conservative Democrat. He is arguably more conservative than the official Republican candidate was (Dede Scozzafava dropped out over the weekend). For example, his opposition to the public option puts him not only far to the right of the bulk of the Democratic party, but significantly to the right of the majority of Americans. He was selected because he fit the Rahm Emanuel philosophy that the only way for Democrats to win right-leaning districts is with conservative Democratic candidates.
The theory is that a center-right Democrat will win the entire Democratic base, most of the independents, and a few of the more liberal Republicans. That theory is getting blown out of the water in NY-23rd. Bill Owens’s remaining competition is the ultra-rightwing Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman. The vast majority of the district should be ideologically much closer Owens than Hoffman, yet Hoffman is leading in the polls.
If Hoffman wins it will be a big loss for the misguided ideal among some Democrats that the only way to win right-leaning districts is by diligently staking out bland center-right positions. Having a candidate that seems “real” and can really fire up the base is very important. People often vote because they feel elected officials are ignoring them and they want to send a message. Right now, there is a real populist rage out there directed at Washington in general.
Most people don’t vote based on a checklist of positions, but vote for candidates they think are honest, even if they don’t agree with them. If a blue dog like Bill Owens can’t even beat an ultra-radical like Hoffman in a mildly red district, the idea of trying to run more blue dogs needs to be seriously re-examined. In 2006 and 2008, all Democrats rode a wave of anti-Republican sentiment. If they want to remain in power, they need to show the regular people that they are working to make their lives better.




30 Comments

Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About FDL Action
A-yup. Maybe if Owens was a choice, not an echo, he’d have a better chance.
I couldn’t care less about the “NY-23rd”, unless a media mogul acclaims it a successful distraction from our HealthCare debate. Or, maybe I missed something. Is the HealthCare debate OVER? Did we (the we who were refusing to accept less than a STRONG Public Option) get clobbered so badbly we’re being soothed by a silly misdirection in hopes we’ll forget how sore out butts are by tomorrow? Et tu, Jane & Jon? Is the “good fight” burnt toast? Is ther life for an ideological Democrat after the post-modernization of the P.O.?
Are you upset that on election day itself we are writing about elections and not primarily health care for one day?
For comparison look at Grayson. His district is barely Democratic and went for Obama by the exact same 52-47 according to Wikipedia. I’ll take a Grayson Democrat any day.
I have more on Blue Dogs, Dead Armadillos and Dede Scozzafava in my diary.
Rahm emanuel’s political malpractice in 2006 cost Democrats between 10 and 15 extra seats, but a narrowly divided House was his goal. A blowout would have meant taking responsiblity against the Bush regime, especially since many of the more liberal Democrats Rahm squeezed out in favor of Blue Doggies were particularly interested in accountability for the Bush Administration’s ways.
We might even have had a groundswell within a more progressive-leaning House for impeachment, but it was not to be due to Rahm’s moving the caucus far to the right, and losing races by pouring money into lost causes. His misallocation of funds alone would certainly disqualify him in my eyes from ever being appointed Chief of Staff of anything.
Good point. Politicians who spend most of their time in Washington seem to live by checklists and demographics. It all dates back to Clinton, who got in by a hair in 1992 and had to work all the little angles to stay alive. But times are changed, and people are paying attention again. It matters.
Also, likely to be elected in CA-10 (American’s OTHER special Congressional election today!) is a big single payer and public option proponent, a former Insurance Commissioner who promises to shake up Big Insurance and Big Finance in Washington.
But because John Garamendi will probably replace State Department appointee and DLC corporatist Ellen Tauscher, you don’t hear much about this race at all. Our east-coast centric media totally ignores this campaign. Even the Washington Post on Sunday said that NY-23 was the only congressional campaign this cycle!
You bet I’m upset! I’m upset that our elected Dem. leadership has sold us down the river on the most important vote (we might’ve influenced in a less corrupt environment) in 30 years!
And, you bet I’m upset media has been so easily misdirected off THE critically important issue of our day – to cover unimportant local elections.
Bottom line for me is, you guys have chosen to play in the big leagues & played better than I thought possible. You certainly gave them a great run for their money, but in the end no one could have known just how corrupt they are. Shame on Obama to squander such an opportunity.
All that’s left now is for you to encourage those brave enough to vote NO, & for the rest of us to campaign like heck to send those up for reelection into retirement.
It’s about time that this idea is tossed onto the scrap heap of history.
You can’t beat a Republican by being a Republican-Lite. You beat a Republican by showing them to be exactly what they are: corrupt plutocrats, more concerned about corporations than people, more concerned about the next election than the issues in Congress.
Healthcare…Reid says it may be delayed.
Reform. Dead on arrival.
Shameless.
We need a powerful blowback to Reid and our own members of Congress on this wretched suggestion.
No bill is better than a bad bill.
Ya recon you’re setting yourself up for even more disappointment on this one? Seems to me they are gonna pass something.
Read that earlier. Un be lievable.
Reid: Hey! I have an idea! Today is November 3, voting day…so it’s the ideal day to announce to a fed up electorate that health care reform will have to be delayed! It’s a perfect strategy to get Democrats to the polls! (Yay for me!)
F’ing idiot.
I don’t doubt they’ll pass something. I also don’t doubt it’ll be a piece of shit as far as anybody but the industry is concerned. Lobbyists threatening to withhold money are far more scary to these corrupt pols than all their angry constituents combined.
The problem with this theory is that in non Presidential elections voter turnout is lower. You need to Stand for something to get the base out. Our side has Emotional Voters ( Lizard Brains ) too and to get them to turn out you need appeals to Emotion you need to show that you will fight for the cause.
A disinterested Suitor is a Lonely Suitor the Blue Dogs are finding that out lukewarm is the Voter love they get.
Polls close in about 5 minutes here. SP Times is promising results beginning minutes after.
did I miss it where people mention turn out? I’ve read some of their local newspapers and some voters seem fairly disenfranchised by the whole process ie. why bother? our reps never really do anything for us anyway?
Delay is good California might give us another solid Left Healthcare vote in the House plus Swine Flu is still spreading a plague would get us everything we want in a healthcare bill.
I’m very interested in our local turnout. I want to see those numbers. There are a number of big issues at stake in St Pete, e.g., taxpayers footing 80% of the bill for a new stadium for the Rays, whose lease at the Contamidome doesn’t end until 2027.
Let’s face it folks we voted for change that we could count on instead we got a wimp who can’t deliver I am going to sit the next 2 elections out unless something changes but I am low on hope based on the performance so far
Yeah, sitting at home pouting is always a good solution.
Should the Republicans make gains in today’s election you can expect Obama/Rham to move even further to the right. They day may actually come when wingers are on board with Obama’s “change.” Now that’s bipartisanship.
David Dayen is upstairs!
Election Night Thread #1
Then we have to work harder.
Scozzafava and Owens are both have mainstream views for their district. Whether or not you agree with them, they both believe in trying to make government work and serve the people. You can disagree with both of them all day long, but they are people who believe in the democratic process, give and take, compromise, and dealing with each other in an honest way.
Isn’t that what’s at stake here? We need a government that works. I’m a gay atheist who believes is socialized medicine. I can have a conversation with Dede Scozzafava or Bill Owens. We can agree or disagree.
I think the whole blue dog thing is misguided. But I cut them some slack. Not always, but most of the time.
You don’t live in Watertown, New York. Watch Wonderfalls (other side of the state and not quite as far north).
Think Marge Gunderson, FARGO (but not Fargo). New York but close to Canada. Beautiful place.
T. O. M. *
*The Old Man (and named TOM)
I found a hidden message i nyour post:
Reid
Dead on arrival.
Shameless
Fascinating find, and 100% correct IMO.
Reid needs to be thrown out on his ass, followed by someone suing his pants off him, a stint in jail, seizure of all his funds, and put to work on a road-crew so he can experience the cluster he has made of this and everything else. Put Emmanuel out there with him too.
People keep pointing out: this district won’t exist after the next election. Census redistricting death. Even if Owens isn’t someone we love, he isn’t going to matter.
Garamendi is a fantastic Dem for us. He’s also 12 years younger than DiFi who with a little luck might retire come 2012… might not. Who knows where her head will be at come two years as she’s closing in on 80. If she does bow out, this gives Garamendi another notch on the resume to possibly move up. He won’t be young himself, but he’d be an improvement over DiFi.
John
That theory confirms why progressives aren’t taken seriously by the Democrats.The need to believe this party will stand for America as opposed to the international investment class is as irrational as birthers needing to believe Obama was born elsewhere.