The Washington Post makes incorrect and unprovable jumps of logic based on their new poll about the public option:
If a public plan were run by the states and available only to those who lack affordable private options, support for it jumps to 76 percent. Under those circumstances, even a majority of Republicans, 56 percent, would be in favor of it, about double their level of support without such a limitation.
The problem is this is not what the Washington Post poll found. This above statement can’t be supported by their polling data. The Washington Post committed two big errors in their polling and their reporting on it. First they only asked the people who said they were opposed to the first public option question if they would support a public option run by the states that would be open only to people without private insurance:
9.(IF OPPOSE/NO OPINION FOR GOVERNMENT PLAN) What if this government-sponsored plan was run by state governments and was available only to people who did not have a choice of affordable private insurance? In that case would you support or oppose this idea?
The Washington Post is assuming that everyone who supports a plan where “the government create[s] a new health insurance plan to compete with private health insurance plans,” would still support the much weaker public option described in question 9. This is simply not true.
I personally support a public option but would oppose the state-based public plan described in the following question. There must be others who would oppose the idea because it is not progressive enough. How many people are like me? I don’t know and neither does the Washington Post. . . because it never asked. The poll does not verify the paper’s claim that 76 percent of Americans would support this much weaker version of a public option.
The other problem with the poll is that question 9 should have been divided into two separate parts. It combines two different ideas (state-based public plans and restricting eligibility) in a single question. It is impossible to know if both changes increase support, only one, or one makes people more supportive while the other makes them generally less supportive.
A previous ABC News-Washington Post poll showed restricting eligibility for the public option to those “who can’t get coverage from a private insurer” resulted in the exact same level of support for the public option:
This poll shows a flip side: Support for a public option swells to 76 percent if it were available only to people who can’t get coverage from a private insurer.
Without proper polling data, it is impossible to judge what effect having the public plans “run by the state governments” would have on support, but using their own previous polling, the effect is probably minimal at best. That phrase should not have been added to the question, and the Washington Post is misleading its readers into thinking that having public options run by the states would result in increased support for the idea.





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and they send out their minions Ceci and Harwood to perpetuate
Nice catch, Jon!
Any way to get the Lame-Stream media to cover this, instead of just regurgitating the WaPoo’s analysis?
Mods: comments are “off” on front page.
FWDiva
The Washington Post lied?????
Nah, nevah happen!
@2, Hey sexy, long time no see!!
My guess is the Lame-Stream (I like it!) media will cover it EXACTLY as the WaPo just did, as they will merely look at the story and not the underlying, you know, facts. In other words, business as usual.
By the way, I subscribed to the WaPo for nearly 30 years. Finally cancelled mine in the run up to that fiasco known as the Iraq war. Couldn’t stand em any longer. Haven’t missed a thing (except not having to pay the paper girl, lol, she was cute!)
Thanks F Wheelie D
That’s a quirk, it should say “no comments.” In other words, if there are no comments, it says “comments off” but they aren’t really off.
Ah, thanks. Hadn’t heard that yet. I’ll know to go make the first comment, then!
I spotlighted this to KO, and emailed the link to Rachel. Best I can do for now.
FWDiva
Thanks Jon,
I read the following “state-based public plans and restricting eligibility” to mean two things.
Some sort of Co-op followed up with a trigger.
Now who on earth or mars would want to frame a question that way? Certainly no one interested in reducing costs or seeing that care is available for all.
There’s other quirks too.
For example, it right now says 2 comments. Even though yours was here and that’s at least 5. I’ve noticed the number not matching quite a bit lately. I mean I know there’s a lag where it might say 8 and by the time I click on comments 2 others have posted so it’s 10, that’s not what I’m talking about.
The other day one said 19 comments for about an hour, even though inside it had gotten up to about 30-35. Some little critters running around methinks.
There are things I would miss about the NYT but if WaPo were to become extinct I would only lament the loss of jobs for lower level employees.
you are prolly right about dem critters,
thanks, will let the techies know.
Hey, Mon.
That certainly sounds quirky, though I really haven’t noticed on my own ‘puter (I do “hard” refreshes, maybe that helps). But as far as quirks go, pretty small potatoes. The backstage crew is doing amazing work keeping the site humming along. Witness the transition to FDL Action (from Campaign Silo), and addition of the News Desk. Yea, Backstage Team!
That’s by way of a general comment, not criticizing you personally, Guy.
FWDiva
I should’ve explained, the number I was talking about was the number on the front page. Just now it said 2, then when you click comments and it comes in here, the number up top is always correct.
It’s just the number on the front page that’s been off, and it’s been recent. And maybe it’s just my puter too. I haven’t been able to access The Seminal for weeks now, and we’ve determined it’s my puter. Maybe this is too????
I dunno, I’m an idgit in most things puterese.
EDIT: LOL, probably could’ve just left off “in most things puterese” from that last sentence and been just as true.
That business about not being able to access The Seminal is weird. Why don’t you try copying the following line, pasting it directly into your address bar, then typing “return.”
http://seminal.firedoglake.com/
Same thing I always get. I copied it. Then I even cleared it out and manually typed it in. Same thing.
Strange thing is it’s only The Seminal. I can click on EVERY other link up there and access it.
Have you tried it using a different browser?
Is the “More information” line a link? If so, what happens when you click it?
yeah, it works OK for me.
No.
Well, sort of.
I had IE 7. Then after the tech guys and I played email tag and I tried emptying out a lot of internet history (they said that can cause the HTTP erros frequentlY) and it didn’t work, I upgraded to IE 8.
Same error though.
But no, I haven’t tried FF or any of the others. I keep meaning to do that, but this old puter is actually below 30GB left on the hard drive now, and I’m limiting myself on what I add anymore.
But still, I might try FF or if you have other suggestions I might try it. Maybe I can uninstall IE to make room for it. LOL, it wouldn’t surprise me if Microsoft made it impossible or very hard to do, which would mean impossible for me. Bastards.
Yeah, but I can’t remember what it said. I’ll do it again and copy it right now.
EDIT: Ok here is what it says when you click on more information.
This error (HTTP 501 Not Implemented or HTTP 505 Version Not Supported) means that the website you are visiting doesn’t currently have the ability to display the webpage, or support the HTTP version used to request the page.
For more information about HTTP errors, see Help.
Found this on a page defining error messages. Doesn’t mean that much to me but maybe it would do admin types. Is it possible the problem is with OFG’s provider?
Oh well, sorry to hijack this thread. Best to stop now I think.
Sorry folks.
And thanks a TON for taking the time to try and help RF. Thank you.
The Firefox app only requires about 50 Mb, Even if you set the cache size at an additional 50 Mb, that would only use up one 300th of your remaining 30Gb.
Not only that but the “state run” part is vague and detached from any currently proposed compromises on the public plan. The key distinction is not “state-run” that is under consideration, it’s whether the states can opt-in or opt-out. If that is the distinction they were aiming for in the question it is an epic fail. “State-run” does not give you purchase on that issue at all. What is more, “only available to those without a choice of affordable insurance” is also nonsensical. What compromise is this question trying to get at? If it is trying to get at triggers, it is a very inadequate way of measuring support for that position. It it is trying to get at the fact that the public option would only be available to those in the individual market who make too much money for medicaid and do not have employer based coverage, it is also problematic. There is no need to measure support for a position who’s alternative is not on the table. None of the bills passed in committee are available to everyone, so why even ask the question about limiting it to those who can not find affordable coverage. The poll is a disaster.
No problem, as hijackers go, you’re one of the nicer ones. :-)
Sort of off topic but not really, I linked last night to a NYT article that said the paper was cutting another 100 jobs from its newsroom. Given the NYT’s product, it’s not like they need real reporters anyway. But then there is this from Dean Baker:
http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press_archive?month=10&year=2009&base_name=the_washington_post_boys_now_w
So not only is the MSM deteriorating by the day but now they want us to pay for their crap to be crap.
Hey, OFG! I’ve had the same problem for nearly two months! Same error messages: 501/505. And nothing seemed to fix it. The instrux from Microsoft didn’t do anything, clearing caches, nuking cookies, nothing. Described the problem to several techies…crickets. You’re the first commenter I’ve come across who has the same problem.
The problem is limited to the Seminal; all other FDL sites work fine.
The only thing that works for me, and it works perfectly, is to activate InPrivate browsing, using Internet Explorer version 8, whenever I need to access the Seminal. Until I discovered that fix, I had to use a different computer when accessing the Seminal. Now, as long as I use InPrivate, all is well.
Hope this helps.
Hey, THAT DID IT!!!
Yeah, same here. I used to be able to get to The Seminal just like all the others then about two months ago, BLAM, and ever since no go.
Oh well, I guess I can’t comment when using InPrivate browsing, but at least now I can read it!!!! (LOL, maybe that’s why they did it! *BIG GRIN*)
Thank you man!!!
Hi Ralph, I use FF and get the following error message when I try to go to Emptywheel:
“Method Not Implemented
GET to / not supported.”
I have no problem going to EW in IE
Why can’t you comment? For me, everything works as before. My life would be empty if I couldn’t club Jason Rosenbaum over the head at least once a day.
Jon, Thanks for pointing to the problems. However, I think there are a lot more problems than just these two. The whole frame is very biased toward the Administration’s getting anything passed right now.
This plays into Hugh’s comment about papers like the WP wanting public support. Our press is already too inclined towards framing issues in a way that is favorable to the Government of the moment. We all know the role that played in getting us into the Iraq War, and right now the framings used by WaPo and NYT are pretty biased toward staying in Afghanistan, deficit hawking on all domestic issues, but not on Afghanistan or Pakistan, and supporting the Administration’s moves in the torture accountability and surveillance areas. I wouldn’t want News Media like that to get any Government support at all.
Doh,
I just wasn’t loggin in.
Told you I was an idjit!!! LOL.
Yep, works great!!!!
Thanks a lot!!!
And to Jon, man I apologize. You wrote a GREAT POST, finding what probably most other news orgs aren’t going to bother even looking into, and I hijack your thread.
My sincere apologies.
Glad my hard-won, stumbled-upon solution was of use to at least one other human.
Back to polls, the latest piece by Kip Sullivan,“Public option” bait-and-switch campaign fools pollsters, directly relates to this post. The basic point is that virtually all opinion polls gauging support for the public option overstate its scope. Essential reading, and a key follow-up to Kip’s other “bait-and-switch” discussions.
I made a related point here.
Kip’s post also talks about the previous results relating to WaPo’s questions about support for the PO. So it is directly relevant to this post of Jon’s.
I think that the better interpretation of what the Post is saying, which may in fact be accurate according to the poll data, is that if you discard all those who favor a general PO, then of all those that remain 76% will favor the PO run by individual states rather than by the government.
If true then this result would seem to show only that people beleive that states can run a program better than the government. What it also shows is that these people don’t have the foggiest idea that the most efficent way to manage risk is to spread it among the largest pool possible and not to fragment that pool into 50 smaller fragments.
Maybe the people being polled should have had that explained to them first.
This is part of the plan that our party leasdership has been following: bait-and-switch. Note the accompanying post on Wyden’s Free Choice amendment. In public, the party talks up our supposed ability to change to the public plan if we dislike our employers’ plans. But in private, when talking to the lobbyists over a single-malt, we can’t choose and probably never will be able to choose.
Even if we get a so-called “public option,” it is looking very much like it will not be the one we asked for.