harry_reid.thumbnail.jpgHarry Reid is losing in his own state of Nevada to what amounts to "generic GOP opponent."  Charlie Cook just downgraded his 2010 race to a tossup.

But that brings up an interesting question.  It will be up to Reid to combine the Senate Finance Committee health care bill with the HELP Committee bill.  And at that time, he’s either going to have to choose to include the HELP Committee’s public option, endorsed by Ted Kennedy, or not.

Members of the Senate have said repeatedly that "we don’t have the votes" for a public option.  But as Kagro notes, this must mean that there are Democratic Senators who are willing to join with the Republicans and filibuster the Ted Kennedy bill:

To say that no plan with a public option can pass the Senate means — when there are 60 Democratic votes– that Democrats like Bayh and Baucus will have to stand with Republicans in filibustering a public option in order to prevent it from getting to a vote. Unless Bayh and Baucus are saying there aren’t 50 votes for it, either, which is certainly something I haven’t heard said yet.

As Chris Bowers notes, no Democratic Senators "oppose" the public option, they just say the votes aren’t there.  So who are these Senators? Will we ever get a chance to find out?

The Majority Leader keeps his job by making his fellow Democratic Senators happy, and keeping them from being put in an awkward position is job one.  And Democratic Senators are not going to want to be put on the spot and have to take take the political hit for either joining in a Republican filibuster, or voting against the public plan in the Kennedy HELP bill. 

The person who decides whether they have to do that or not is Harry Reid.  And he makes that decision when he combines the bills. 

So is Harry Reid willing to incur the wrath of those in the Democratic party who will claim that he’s shielding his fellow Senators by excluding it?  Can he take the hit in his own state from a brutal assault of attack ads claiming he’s facilitating their ability to pass an insurance industry bailout by excluding a provision that would have contained costs?  When the Nevada public learns that he’s personally responsible for including a $3800 fine for those who refuse to pay annual tribute to Blue Cross, how will his poll numbers fare?

In short, will doing what it takes to save his Majority Leader status make Harry Reid lose his Senate Seat?