Harry Reid is losing in his own state of Nevada to what amounts to "generic GOP opponent." Charlie Cook just downgraded his 2010 race to a tossup.
But that brings up an interesting question. It will be up to Reid to combine the Senate Finance Committee health care bill with the HELP Committee bill. And at that time, he’s either going to have to choose to include the HELP Committee’s public option, endorsed by Ted Kennedy, or not.
Members of the Senate have said repeatedly that "we don’t have the votes" for a public option. But as Kagro notes, this must mean that there are Democratic Senators who are willing to join with the Republicans and filibuster the Ted Kennedy bill:
To say that no plan with a public option can pass the Senate means — when there are 60 Democratic votes– that Democrats like Bayh and Baucus will have to stand with Republicans in filibustering a public option in order to prevent it from getting to a vote. Unless Bayh and Baucus are saying there aren’t 50 votes for it, either, which is certainly something I haven’t heard said yet.
As Chris Bowers notes, no Democratic Senators "oppose" the public option, they just say the votes aren’t there. So who are these Senators? Will we ever get a chance to find out?
The Majority Leader keeps his job by making his fellow Democratic Senators happy, and keeping them from being put in an awkward position is job one. And Democratic Senators are not going to want to be put on the spot and have to take take the political hit for either joining in a Republican filibuster, or voting against the public plan in the Kennedy HELP bill.
The person who decides whether they have to do that or not is Harry Reid. And he makes that decision when he combines the bills.
So is Harry Reid willing to incur the wrath of those in the Democratic party who will claim that he’s shielding his fellow Senators by excluding it? Can he take the hit in his own state from a brutal assault of attack ads claiming he’s facilitating their ability to pass an insurance industry bailout by excluding a provision that would have contained costs? When the Nevada public learns that he’s personally responsible for including a $3800 fine for those who refuse to pay annual tribute to Blue Cross, how will his poll numbers fare?
In short, will doing what it takes to save his Majority Leader status make Harry Reid lose his Senate Seat?



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Labor wields a big stick in NV – personally concerned they will trade triggers/co ops for some watered down but palatable version of EFCA – anyone hearing anything ??
“So is Harry Reid willing to incur the wrath of those in the Democratic party who will claim that he’s shielding his fellow Senators by excluding it?”
Do you really see that as a viable outcome?
My impression is there are no Dems with wrath about excluding the public option…. (see comment in previous thread re Bingaman and knowing coops would be the outcome back in June.)
Harry Reid doesn’t think women should have a choice, why would anyone think he would prefer the rest of the country should have choices?
“In short, will doing what it takes to save his Majority Leader status make Harry Reid lose his Senate Seat?” —–’helter skelter’ came to mind when I read this: “you may be a lover but you ain’t no dancer’.
Can we mock the Trigger into oblivion?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/f…..7408/show/
he’s actually losing to a generic opponent? ha!
how active is SEIU (which is very powerful in NV) in pushing for the PO?
If Harry want’s to piss off labor then he is really stupid. Oh, he is stupid.
Harry should take the his lead from Sen. Harkin, the new Chairman of the HELP Comm., taking over for Ted Kennedy.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…..lic-Option
yeah.. this is starting look something like this:
PO -> Trigger to PO
PO -> Limited PO
–> Trigger to Limited PO
PO -> Co-ops
—> Trigger to Co-ops!
Meanwhile:
% change in shareprice Sept 9 to Sept 11 2:00PM
Big Insurance:
HUM +7.3% (Humana)
UNH +4.2% (UnitedHealth)
WLP +4.2% (Wellpoint)
AET +5.4% (Aetna)
HNT +6.0% (HealthNet)
CIG +5.8% (Cigna)
Market:
DOW +1.0%
SP500 +1.5%
At least someone’s lovin’ this. After every announcement or development, their share price jumps again.
Doesn’t a big public program then have to be part of the bill? A tiny business like PO won’t do what Harkin wants. When do the PO dems outline legislation that matches their rhetoric?
From everything I’ve heard so far, I want the Obama bill to die a quick legislative death. The Democrats are finished unless they give us a REAL PUBLIC HEALTH PLAN as an alternative to shitty private insurance. And Jesus Christ, if there’s a mandate, there has to be a public plan. Otherwise it’s outright extortion for obscene CEO bonuses.
I meant us actually.
;)
and meanwhile, in wingnutland:
http://www.latimes.com/news/na…..8033.story
they’re rallying to stop reform just ’cause it doesn’t do enough to halt abortions. ’cause everybody else dying is the Christian thing to do.
From everything I’ve heard so far, I want the Obama bill to die a quick legislative death.
me too
all those people who say that plan to vote for it because we have to pass a bill, let’s see what they say after a major blogswarm sends thousands of emails into their system all calling on them to vote down the proposed bail out of health insurance parasites, because that is what it is shaping up to be.
For all practical purposes Dems haven’t had 60 votes this session. Let’s assume for the sake of argument that Franken was seated with the rest of the session. That would make 58 Dems and 2 Independents who are counted in the Dem caucus. Sanders is a reliable vote on this side of the aisle. Short Ride is not. Byrd was absent for a time and it was nip and tuck whether he’d be back. Kennedy understandably missed more votes than he made. He won’t make this one. That leaves 57 Dems and 2 Independents. I’m not particularly worried about a filibuster because I think Baucus, Conrad and some others will vote against anything resembling a public option and/or isn’t a giveaway to the insurance industry. Reconciliation? Your guess is as good as mine.
I have a really hard time being upset at the idea of Reid losing his seat. He’s a Republican to his bones and if the Dems in Nevada are sick of that, I say do something about it.
sorry if this is crude, but the guy just looks like a p*ssy. not a principled bone in his body
The Christianists here have now started a petition drive to amend the FL Constitution to declare an embryo a person.
I heard Max Blumenthal on Terri Gross’s Fresh Air make clear that James Dobson is a child pychiatrist rather than any type of church figure. Gonna have to get his new book, Republican Gomorrah
Physician heal thyself!
they’re perfectly free to do that I guess (although hopefully the Supremes will have something to say about all this), but if they manage to carry out their threat to derail real health reform by their fearmongering, then I’m going to argue that that they need to be cauterized from the body politic. I can’t believe this insanity – so arguments against the PO now include illegal immigrants, public-insurance-mandated abortion, public-insurance-mandated death panels, etc, etc.
I don’t think we can emphasize this enough.
Except for this from Harkin on Monday:
http://www.desmoinesregister.c…../909070326
If there are 51 Democratic Senators who are truly committed to the public without waiting for an elusive four-year trigger, then they ought to vote change the filibuster rule and pass true health care reform. The U.S. Supreme Court is poised to open the floodgates of corporate campaign spending before the 2010 mid-term elections. The Democrats may not even control the House after the 2010 elections, let alone in four years.
Can you imagine what he could do to a child’s mind! Yikes !
how many votes are needed to change the rule?
We all know it already but this vote is going to let everybody in the country know who will vote for corporate profits over the welfare of their constituents. The 25% will rejoice if the bill fails because it has a public option but the rest won’t. It’s target identification time. We want to use our resources to the best advantage.
Like your corporate masters much?
Anthem health insurance corp arrests customer.
Anthem is a subsidiary of Wellpoint from whence cameth Liz Fowler, author of what Baucus is pushing as America’s new health program.
Wish we could just get rid of the Senate. What a useless bunch of navel-gazers they are. But they feel so important and entitled. A pox on them.
I does believe there’s more behind “Focus on the Family” than meets the eye.
Back to the cesspool.
Namaste
I don’t think we need to change the rule. We don’t need 60 votes FOR a bill we just need 60 senators who won’t participate in a filibuster. Republicans never needed 60 votes.
Let’s play a little political chicken and see how many of those ConservaDems are willing to actually join a filibuster. Then we just need one or two moderate Republicans (I’m counting JoeLie here) to realize even if they don’t like the PO, they will take a political hit to actually filibuster reform and viola – we just need 50 votes in the Senate to actually pass the legislation.
they’re more than neo-fascist, theocratic, fundamentalist, coup-plotting extremists? there’s something worse?
With Harkin as chair of the HELP Committee, can the 12 Democratic members of that committee be our firewall in the Senate that the progressive caucus is in the House?
I have a close colleague who did some kind of an internship there – from what I understand her disillusionment with them was the beginning of her conversion away from the dark side.
Good question.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXh4EuJa2TU
If that were to become law, all sexually active women would have to be monitored. A human egg is called an embryo until about eight weeks after fertilization. If a woman has a fertilized egg that does not result in a baby, she must be investigated to see if she caused the murder of that ’person’. Somehow, I think that’s the kind of society the promoters of that Amendment really want
how about Boxer? Didn’t she say that she still wants the PO?
doesn’t this assume that the woman in question has access to some type of pre-natal care facility, which she probably wouldn’t be able to afford if they have their way and reform fails? Or do they intend for the invasive monitoring to be carried out by clergy?
Either way, the women must be monitored.
if the embryo “dies” as a result of a lack of access to pre-natal healthcare, do they prosecute the woman, the insurance companies, or Congress?
The woman, no doubt. After all, these are Southern White Christian ideas.
Oooh, oooh! Do I get a vote?
sadly, if you look at the Dem members – there appear to be only 2 we can solidly count on: Franken and Sanders
I would like to be wrong about Harkin and Brown, but both have made weasely statements in the recent past
the rest reek of “at least we passed something”
Patty Murray
Barbara Mikulski
Christopher Dodd
Jack Reid
Bob Casey
Kay Hagan
Jeff Bingaman
ymmv
My intelligent comment filled with the wisdom of 67 years (not so much)
I feel like a Duncan Yo Yo
And my string just broke
Harry please quit your day job
Am I wrong when I say that we live in one of the most mean spirited countries in the world..I guess that makes me unpatriotic..
oh well.
Jane, I’d like to ask you something. It seems to me, Democrats had two approaches to health reform, expanding the federal role via a programmatic route(ie large Medicare-style option), or expand the federal role via a regulatory route(ie Romney Care). Now, a couple of years ago, the approach seemed to be largely programmatic under the guise of regulatory(ie massive public program, within the context of “choice”, “competition”), but as the debate in Congress drags on, we can see the Dems have chosen the regulatory route, obviously to establish a federal role and then hope to later tighten regulations on private insurers(which I frankly, doubt we have the political capacity for). This also happened in MA, obviously. But what hasn’t happened is a move toward expanding our existing state program(which is excellent), rather the new talking points on reform are global payments, and dealing with the expense of the Connector bureaucracy. My question is this, will there come a time, when you as an advocate for the PO, push for a legislative position from congressional supporters to back up their rhetoric? Would you consider this PO, as outlined by the CBO, to be a significant victory even if it did not show a clear path for a greater programmatic role for the feds in health care? If the Democrats continue to water down the PO, what will your response be in terms of advocating for or against the legislation? Have you though of alternatives to the PO, like an amendment to a voluntary expansion of Medicare to 55-64 years olds? Or, a Medicare option for young adults? What is your long-term vision for the reform coming out of Congress? What do you think the effect will be on state single payer efforts in places like VT, PA and CA, if the Obama plan passes? Because my experience in MA has been once the regulatory fix passed, single payer efforts have been greatly weakened, despite rising premiums, a Democratically controlled Congress, a Democrat in the governor’s office, and the broad support of the public here.
You got that right.
Dobson and his wife are hooked up with the C Street “Breakfast Club,”otherwise known as “The Family” of Jeff Sharlet infamy.
Here’s a few facts from the site “Evangelical Right”.(Link to follow.)
Quick Facts about James Dobson
· He’s a psychologist, not a minister, with zero theological training.
· He’s apparently on speed dial at the White House, since he’s regularly consulted by them.
· He’s married to Shirley Dobson, the chair-Christian of the National Day of Prayer Task Force.
· He’s a founding board member of the Christian political lobby, Family Research Council.
· He routinely advised Bush’s campaign advisor Karl Rove during the 2004 election.
·
The Evangelical Pope
Forget Pat Robertson. Forget Billy Graham. Dr. James Dobson hates the queers more vehemently than anyone in America. Chairman and founder of the Colorado Springs-based ministry known as Focus on the Family, he’s also the world’s most powerful evangelical leader, earning him the unofficial title, The Evangelical Pope. Combining folksy family psychology – Dobson has a Ph. D. in child development.
Tellingly, Dobson was even privy to inside information on Supreme Court nominees, provided by the White House, weeks before most of the members of Congress got the information. And yes, he’s the guy who thinks SpongeBob Squarepants is gay.
A majority of two
Let’s hear it for the good guys
We are outnumbered by the enemy…our side.
That’s the way it first appears with the progressive caucus too.
Hagan has a lot of local pressure on her from local groups to stand firm. The public opinion is behind all of these folks. They need to know that within their bubble. And they need to know that a lot of folks are watching every move they make.
@46
The Evangelical Pope: James DobsonDr. James Dobson hates the queers more vehemently than anyone in America. …. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies · The Fellowship …
http://www.evangelicalright.com/james_dobson.html – Cached – Similar
If she still wants it, then she doesn’t have to be whipped to support it, does she? Unless she starts sounding shaky on it.
I thought of the HELP Committee because it is essential to passage of a bill.
Anybody here know why Al Frankin is being so quiet?
he seems to be with Harkin in Des Moines
http://www.desmoinesregister.c…../-1/LIFE04
intrade is worth watching.
Here’s health care with public option.
Nice bump after speech, back down now.
shouldn’t the insurers in #9 go down if the value of the healthcare intrade contract goes up? If not, perhaps we’re doing something wrong ;-P
If he loses his senate seat, he’ll find a cozy seat for his crinkly, corrupt ass … and an obscene compensation package to boot … provided by the corporate interests that he has labored so hard for.
Z
Maybe Harry Reid knows he can’t win in 2010, so he’s buying himself a nice big fat paycheck on the other side.
He’s not been quiet. He was at the Minnesota State Fair explaining the public option and the healthcare bill to anyone who would listen.
Citizen Hamsher:
I’m confused again Sister Jane…it seems to me that Reid’s only chance to hold on to his seat is if the “public option” is included in the bill on final passage. Whatcher sayin’ means that One Hung Harry will fall on his sword to protect Baucus and Nelson and Conrad which implies that he has loyalty to a couple of Bozos that aren’t even up for re-election. Unless his church heirarchy has made ‘im an offer he can’t refuse, I don’t see this pathetic mouse turd doin’ ANYthin’ for ANYone other than himself. Please tell me what I’m missin here.
Citizen slide:
Franken has been doin his due diligence back home at the state fair and everywhere else he ken find Minnesotans and tellin’ ‘em about the public option and his support for it!
Harry, it seems to me, feels he’s done. This may make him vulnerable to corruption now in anticipation of life afterwards, as LindaR suggests @56. Alternatively, in the abstract, it could liberate him to do the right thing, but (a) there is no sign of any self-sacrificing impulse in him in the first place, and (b) all signs since forever have been that he genuinely values bipartisaniness way higher than, y’know, achieving his party’s or his constituents’ goals. In all I do not anticipate any sudden surge in Harry’s vigor, nor his utility.
Primary the fucker.
OT but pertinent..
Nice little republican that he is oozing concern for his constituents
http://minnesota.publicradio.o…..-amendment
The insurers have usually gone up as the intrade contract goes down. Low volumes on intrade result in more noise, but there does seem to be an inverse correlation – eg Sept 2 Intrade drops 5 points, Health insurance companies rally 3%. I’ve not downloaded the closing prices or calculated the correlation coefficient. I’d guess it’s around -0.6 from looking at the charts.
It’s interesting that the day after Obama’s speech Intrade was up and so were the Health Insurance companies.
Wait ’til you tell them that not only will this allow illegal immigrants to have “anchor babies”…but “anchor embryos”. Full citizenship upon conception…so once they cross the border they will only have to have sex to avoid deportation. If they “might be” bearing (or have fathered) a “naturally conceived” citizen then you can’t evict the parents.
One can only hope that the ossified and incompetent and bought off Harry Reid loses his seat in the Senate. Let him go back to Nevada. He’s done enough damage to the people of the U.S..
I doubt any of these bozos has thought beyond whatever wording is contained on the petition. Our fellow citizens, in their infinite wisdom, passed a referendum a few years ago that requires 60% to pass a ballot initiative. I’m waiting so see if they can get enough signatures to get it on the ballot if the FLSC approves the wording of the initiative. I’m thinkin’ not.
The BEST thing to do is for all progressives to get Reid a primary opponent EVEN IF it means the seat goes to the reTHUGS….Reid is just a spineless troll from Kolob to me
“annual tribute to Blue Cross” – what a perfect description of this bill without the public option!
Yes, clearly NOW is the time to get health care reform done.
One of my fears is that mandates will be characterized by Republicans as hidden taxes. Can we afford to lose the reform and then also lose the next Congress?
You’re skipping a key step. Remember that today when there’s a crime the usual first step is for the police to rush in and taser the innocent victim or whomever happens to be standing around. After that anything could happen because the police are there to restore “order”. In their world that could really mean anything.
Yes, there is a crazy world out there and sometimes the gov’t actually is the enemy.
It seems pretty clear that reconciliation is the path forward. Senate can pass whatever gets 60 votes. House passes HR 3200. Conference committee ensues. The public option can/must emerge as part of the conference committee bill. 51 votes in the Senate; 218 in the House.
The President’s speech this week and the Republicans’ actions since set this up. The President extended his hand to the GOP in the form of tort reform pilots in the states and an open door. Boustany (my congressman) gave a vacuous recitation of the partisan cant, minus some of the theatrics in the days since, Republicans have lurched to still more ardent opposition. I think this is great for the Democrats in the Congress as it strips away (as if they needed it, but apparently they do) the last veneer of the notion of the possibility of bipartisanship in the Congress.
This also sets up well among the general public as Republicans have shown themselves to be so rigid that they cannot accommodate compromise. Having extended his hand in so public a way, and having had it slapped away in an equally public way, Obama and the Democrats have the political cover to say ‘we made every effort to work across the aisle but the minority party was not willing to compromise (or admit they lost the last election).
We need to focus on the House. Make sure that HR 3200 gets passed. Let the Senate pass whatever gets 60 votes. In the meanwhile, we need to work to ensure that we have 51 votes in the Senate (including Biden) for the public option and 218 votes in the House.
We can win this. We will win this. We need to focus on keeping our majorities in line on both sides of the Capitol. After the votes are taken, we can then focus on the tasks ahead in the primaries in 2010.
As if things were not bad enough we now find that the accumulated deficit so far this year is roughly 1.4 trillion dollars. This is due in large part to added government payments for unemployment benefits, the 2 ongoing wars, the bailout to banks and the money committed for stimulating the economy. At the same time, there is a reduction in tax revenues both personal and corporate.
Further, the projected deficit over the next decade will be roughly 9 trillion and this is not taking into account the total accumulated debt. This massive debt burden crowds out any chance for spending in furthering of the public good. And yet we have Reid, Pelosi and Obama bent on proceeding basically along the same economic way.
It is simply astounding that people can look these facts in the face and still believe that with just a few minor cosmetic corrections the free market based economy as it stands in this country is basically sound. The willful stupidity goes beyond sanity.
At the same time foreign holders of US debt will soon cease to extend further loans or do so at increasing interest.
It further strains belief that obvious cost cutting measures such as not for profit financing of health insurance is deplored because it runs counter to the same free market mess which has led the country into perhaps irretrievable debt.
We simply can not, for the sake of our own standard of living, cease to fight to change the health care system including by advocacating strongly for the PO. Thereafter it is necessary to advocate for other changes that will keep the country solvent. It is clear that few in Congress will carry out the needed change in direction and it falls on the public to do so.
I’ve read elsewhere that actually the GOP are not enthusiastic about their chances for taking Reid’s seat. Their best candidate decided not to run, so all they’ve got are their B-team out there and Reid has a ton of money.
You want to know which Democratic Senators oppose the public option? Try doing a bit of research.
Ben Nelson (Nebraska)
Blanche Lincoln (Arkansas)
Mark Pryor (Arkansas)
Mary Landrieu (Louisiana)
Joe Lieberman (Independent – Connecticut)
Besides these are about 10 Democratic fence sitters like Evan Bayh (Indiana).
We’ll soon get to see how smart Harry Reid is. If he caves to special interests, the people will boot him from office.
Mary Landrieu is a corporate shill.
The Dems, and most definitely, the Independents will vote Harry out of office if he fails to represent them….and that’s 3/4 of this country.