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As anyone with a computer, radio, TV, or newspaper knows by now, Arlen Specter switched parties yesterday. Lots of people really doubt that his switch will do anything besides keep him in office past 2010, but as I stated over at Oxdown, I do think he’s a lot more likely to tack left than right, particularly as that’s the direction in which Pennsylvania’s been going over the last few years; Specter himself cited the 200,000 Pennsylvanian Republicans who became Democrats over the past year as a key reason for his switch. [UPDATE: Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight provides data to show that when most pols switch parties, their voting patterns do usually evolve to be closer in sync with the party they joined and farther away from the party they left.]
Another reason for thinking that Specter will indeed vote more like a Democrat than a Republican: The Republicans sure seem to think he will. Otherwise, the pressure on both Norm Coleman and Tim Pawlenty from top Republicans to continue to block Senator-Elect Al Franken’s being seated wouldn’t have just increased another few notches. (Norm of course denies that such pressure exists, but nobody really believes him — not when, among other things, John Cornyn’s been flapping his gums for months virtually ordering Coleman to stay at his post Or Else.)
One thing that both Coleman and Pawlenty need to keep in mind: Two recent polls show that even a majority of Minnesota Republicans won’t be happy with Norm if he tries to — literally – make a Federal case out of this. And Pawlenty, who is running next year for reelection as the state’s governor, had better pay attention to poll results showing that Minnesotans will be rather angry with him if he refuses to sign Al Franken’s election certificate when called upon to do so.
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I wish Minnesotans would be equally angry with Pawlenty for all his budget game playing at the expense of our state’s welfare.
Me too, Ironranger. But Smilin’ Tim’s chief talent is making sure his fingerprints don’t remain at the scene of the crime. It doesn’t hurt him that the local press is by and large quite willing to forego connecting the dots in his case.
Pawlenty’s latest comment, when asked about Arlen, was that it had no bearing and he would “follow the orders of the courts” with regards to signing a certificate. Seems Pawlenty is walking back some from his position of waiting until all appeals are heard. Perhaps he’s realized that defying an order from the MN Supreme Court to issue a certificate might actually fall under the state’s few grounds for impeachment?
I suspect that Smilin’ Tim’s not yet ready to slide into think-tank or lobbyist obscurity just yet, P. He can read the polls as well as anyone, and unlike with the state’s record of near-continuous deficits on his watch, the issue of the election certificate is not one from which he’s going to be able to disassociate himself. He can forget about 2012 — 2010 is what he needs to focus on.
“follow the orders of the courts,” is pretty ambiguous.
Is he going to do the right thing and follow the order of the MNSC even if he doesn’t like it? Or is he going to wait for Normie’s inevitable appeal to the Federal Courts and (assuming Normie’s lawyers can find a compliant judge) follow the TRO?
Oops, I introduced the ambiguity. Here’s Pawlenty’s actual comment:
It’s still a bit vague, but it does seem to me like he’s more specific than previously when he said he’d wait until the matter was finally settled. And as usual, he’s being a weasel.
There is no way that this process ends well for Smilin’ Tim, and he knows that. Awww, that is just too bad.
Thanks for your good work, PW. This whole experience has been exhausting.
Strip-Search Sammy is warming up his stay-pen. He knows this is his ticket to The Big Game, and he can’t wait to tell Tim not to sign anything.
Hey!
Weasels are useful vermin predators. Would that so much could be said for Governor Pawlenty-o-nuttin’.
Teddy,
Do you really Strip-search is that stupid?
Don’t answer that — he just might be. But I don’t think Roberts is stupid, even if he’s a lying asshat. I suspect that Robert’s has told Strip-search that there had better be some real legal issues involved if Strip-search issues a stay.
Let’s hope that SCOTU$ cares more about its reputation than the GOP. Florida 2000 causes me to pause and wonder just how much certain justices care about their reputation and legacy.
Roberts appears to care quite a bit, judging from what he’s said about it.
It takes four votes to grant certiorari. Let’s figure that Strip-search is in the bag, and Scalia and his deputy too. Roberts would have to be the fourth vote, because I can’t imagine Souter, Kennedy, Ginsberg, Stevens or Breyer wanting to stick their heads into another election guillotine. And I really don’t think that Roberts is that stupid.
PW, when can we expect Normie’s filing? And will it be another rehash of the same tired old s***?
Thanks for the info. I am no lawyer and have no desire to be one. I believe you are correct about Roberts, or, should I say, I hope Roberts has some sense of judicial propriety. Scalia, Thomas and Alito seem to me to be generally bereft of judicial propriety. I agree with your analysis of the other 5’s reluctance to embroil themselves in Florida 2 The Sequel.
Regarding our sarcastic attacks on certain Republicans here, I saw this out at Sam Smith’s Undernews (prorev.com) on April 27th. What is it with these Texas Republicans?
I made the point over at the lake;
as the democrats become what the republicans call “moderate” the democrats lost and the republicans won.
these “moderates” now in the party are far from moderate, they aren’t even “right wing”, they are fringe
there are few democrats on the left and very few moderates in our party and our ideology is beginning to look like the republicans looked during nixon
franken can change that, he’s campaigned on the platform of publicly funded elections, let’s hope his seat in power doesn’t corrupt that platform
corporations buying our lawmakers and law is the biggest problem in our country
Public financing of election campaigns is an idea whose time has come.
We can look to Maine for a model that seems to work. Here in New Mexico we have public financing for some elections. Statewide, the Public Regulatory Commissioner receive public funding for their campaigns. I believe the City of Albuquerque will fund this years mayoral race. We’ve had some problems with public funding of the PRC races. One candidate last year stole some of his campaign funds — he claimed to have hired a band for a campaign event, but it turned out that the event never happened.
Now the Courts are trying to figure out if he can charged criminally, because the SecState’s office caught it and fined him for the impropriety. Does this constitute double jeopardy? I guess that’s why we have courts.
Under the current system, money buys access to politicians. If you have access, you have influence. If you have influence, you can adjust the laws in ways that benefit yourself. If politicians don’t need to pander to moneyed interests, maybe they’ll remember they represent the people rather than the banksters. I don’t believe it can be worse than what we’ve got now.