In the midst of a step-by-step explanation of the remaining portions of the Franken-Coleman endgame, MinnPost‘s Eric Black takes a little time to tell some folks (including a reporter from his former employer, the StarTribune) to chill out:
One thing you really should know, but it’s hard to learn because so much of the commentary seems to want to lead us to another conclusion: The likeliest outcome — no matter whether Team Coleman takes their case to the U.S. Supreme Court and/or tries to get a fresh start in federal district court — is that Franken will be seated in the Senate in roughly May or June.
Yes, it’s theoretically possible (although unlikely) that the argument will live on for many months (as you may know, Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, has said "years"). But even if the case lives on, Franken will, in all likelihood, already be seated in the Senate. Too many pieces, including this one from today’s Strib front page, suggest that Minnesota will remain a one-senator state as long as Coleman is appealing his case. That is unlikely, and if you read the Strib piece carefully, the same experts who say it is possible, say it is unlikely.
I just spoke to one of those election law experts, Guy-Uriel Charles, who said that the "significantly greater likelihood" is that Franken will get an election certificate soon after the Minnesota Supreme Court rules.
Meanwhile, the MNIndy’s Chris Steller notes that Kiplinger and USA Today have joined the National Review and other conservative and non-conservative media in calling for Norm to do the honorable thing and concede. But of course he won’t. Not when he’s in hock up to his eyeballs in legal fees he can’t possibly repay on his own. And Tim Pawlenty’s hinting that the Coleman camp’s going to beg the US Supreme Court — or at least Samuel Alito — for a stay to keep the Minnesota Supreme Court from issuing an election certificate, should Norm try to appeal the case to the Federal courts. However, as Eric Black explains in his follow-up piece today, that’s not likely to work out the way Norm hopes it would:
Third, and probably most likely (but still unlikely), if Coleman immediately files notice that he is appealing the MN Supreme Court decision to the U.S. Supreme Court, he could ask a single justice of the U.S. Supreme court to block the issuance of a certificate, to freeze the action until more justices could weigh in. This is the kind of stay sometimes used in emergencies, to block executions or prevent some other form of irreparable harm that will occur. A short-term stay like this is often only good for a matter of hours, unless it is soon supported by a majority of the court. Almost all of the commentary I have seen suggests that the High Court is unlikely to take this case. And if it is clear to them that they won’t be taking it, they will have no incentive to issue a stay.




29 Comments








Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About FDL Action
The Republicans just don’t get it, do they? They whine about fairness and “rights” and anything else under the sun that they can find… In this case, Coleman has clearly lost, particularly considering the unanimous opinion issued by the election committee — and it was in accordance with Minnesota law.
So, what the Republicans REALLY don’t get is that people are very, VERY tired of the stonewalling and sobbing. I know that I am — and I cannot recall anything positive that the Republicans have done since the Obama administration entered office. I have seen no real effort to work with the new administration, unless it suited GOP purposes.
It is time to give it a break, fellows — and John Cornyn, I am Republican and one of your constituents! I want to see you start acting in a more positive manner than trying to preserve Normie’s neck…
I think the Roberts Court faces substantial disincentives in taking this case. In fact, I don’t think they’ll touch it with a 10 foot pole.
Roberts and Strip-search Sammy both sat in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee and lied their asses off about their firm belief in the stare decisis principle. That is, the Court is bound by its precedents absent a compelling reason to revisit the issue. Think Brown v. Board of Education.
Roberts knows that the Bush v. Gore decision cost the SCotUS a lot of public good will, and not just from Democrats. Meddling again in a State election, this time when there is a SCotUS precedent that approved the procedure would cost them even more good will.
Worst case (for Roberts) would be for the Congress to amend the US Code on Court Organization (I think it’s Chapter 50) to expand the Supreme Court to 11 or 13 members. Adding 2 or 4 new justices appointed by President Obama has to figure in his nightmares.
Best case (for Roberts) is to meddle in the Minnesota election, and somehow eke out a 5-4 decision that favors Coleman (maybe ordering a do-over election?) somehow. I don’t see any way the Court could find Coleman to be the winner of the election, so a do-over is the best they could hope for. That would enrage Congress and jeopardize all the goodies that Roberts wants (more pay for Federal judges, basically.)
I can’t see any upside for Roberts and Company in taking this, and lots of downsides. They have the perfect excuse to avoid it: all they have to say is, stare decisis, Mr. Coleman. Now put on your big girl panties and deal with it.
The really big question for me is this one. Will Senate Majority Leader Reid grow a spine and seat Franken now that the appeals are over?
I didn’t think so, either. Hillary Clinton for Senate Majority Leader!
I can just smell Strip-Search Sammy’s flopsweat offstage, waiting impatiently for the key light to turn on him for his starring role in this drama.
Wait for it.
It will happen.
I do not envy you this ability.
Go with Dawg, my son.
Digg while the digging’s good!
Yuk. to flob sweat.
Actually part of me would like to see Sammy get a shot at immortality, throwing in with the Renquist court.
The small, narrow-minded, dickless twerp part, that is.
I think it will happen, Teddy. I do think it will happen.
But I also think that Mr (in)Justice Roberts is a pretty smart asshole. I think that he has already told Strip-search that should he (Strip-search) issue a temporary injunction, he will be overturned at the earliest opportunity.
I further think that Team Coleman’s petition for a Writ of Certiorari will be denied, probably on 6-3 vote. Not that we’ll ever know how the vote came down.
Why do Southern Republican Senators want to slash in half Minnesota’s power in the U.S. Senate? Just like the Southern Republican Senators’ war on Michigan and its auto industry, now it’s Minnesota. Is this part of the secessionist movement Beck is starting to preach? /s
DUGG And it WAS Good!
That this thing is clearly over (and has been for awhile), makes me wonder. Is Coleman really this stupid or is there something else going on here? What is he trying to protect (or conceal)? He’s obviously highly motivated to keep going even in the face of certain defeat. The only other thing that could make any sense is that he’s just straight-up clinically deranged.
these are depraved sociopathic federalists and they are brazen
yet I feel franken has finally turned the corner
here’s my scenario;
franken creates a justifyable mountain of bills for coleman to pay
he then offers coleman a buy out far less and coleman bows out
I like it – except for the buyout part. Let Coleman suck on all the legal costs he’s been generating. He got himself into this mess, he can get himself out. He doesn’t deserve a red cent.
While I see the utility, I am plum out of even a smidge of empathy. I want them writhing in the gutter, penniless and exposed. They are scurrilous punks and I want to see them fail. I want to see it.
Edit: That said, with Harry Reid in charge, I expect him to offer Coleman a judgeship, a stipend, and a blowjob, while letting him be seated.
Hear, hear!
off to bed, I can’t wait to see the outrage, OUTRAGE I tell you from coleman
Judicial peeps – LOL
I just want a real progressive in the senate right now, franken is truly a thinking progressive who makes great points about living wages actually helping industry, not costing them a penny since the market becomes far more robust
I really want him in and am well willing to allow for some coleman buy out to get him there pronto
I will c all 2 moro
The comparison with Gore is very rich (of course, from Cornyn). The results there may have been very different had the Supremes not stepped in so that the Florida state procedures were allowed to play out. I recall quite well the very sad morning when the Renqu. court called off the count. Or, as Scalia says…get over it.
I think they’re trying to cut Minnesota in half to corner the Walleye and Pike market. Can’t you just see Glenn Beck carving a hole in the ice and dropping in his fishing line?
i hope you’ve sent a love letter to our “distinguished” senator from texas letting him know you’re a republican and want him to cease and desist.
yeah, sooner the better. no argument.
nite perris
I hate to even think how much better off the country (and the world, for that matter) would be if Gore had taken the oath back in January of 2001. Big Time Better, I’m sure.
Eli is upstairs at the Mothership!
Tea Party Day: Brace For Crazy
MANY letters! It is amazing, though… I always get the same response. “Thank you for contacting me about your concerns…” it begins.
Funny, he sends me the same ones too!
That’s not ice and that’s not his fishing pole, per se . . . ;-)
As Cheney’s handpicked opponent against Paul Wellstone, Coleman may very well have much to conceal. He will be well taken care of by the powers that be. Any disgruntled Republican domino is dangerous. He’ll be shuffled off where he can live comfortably on regular hush money. No longer a player but still a domino… and he won’t be travelling in small planes.