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Polling wiz Nate Silver reports that Obama has a 5.8-point lead in the national popular vote. McCain is trailing in Pennsylvania, despite a massive last-minute campaign onslaught.
Virtually every winning scenario for McCain presupposes that the polls are flat-out wrong, whether because of the Bradley effect, voter suppression, electronic voter fraud, or the most massive statistical fluke in the history of quantitation.
The scary part is, with the exception of the suspension of the laws of probability, none of these possibilities is far-fetched. So, remember folks, this is no time to get complacent.
All of the projections assume that everyone who thinks they’re a likely voter will be allowed to vote. The reality is that the GOP is determined to turn as many of them away as possible.
If you’ve voted before, it’s vital that you turn out tomorrow. Your vote has to compensate for a new voter who gets turned away.
If it isn’t close, they can’t cheat. The more votes Obama gets, the bigger his mandate for progressive change. Remember how George W. Bush had to kiss major fundie butt because the "values voters" allegedly turned out en masse in Ohio to put him over the top?
Let’s make progressives the "values voters" of 2008 and push our concerns at the top of the agenda for a change.
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I love that shot-Obama at a rally in the pouring rain. The same day McCain cancelled his rally because of the rain. Quite the metaphor for who is really ready to lead on “day one.”
Thanks Lindsay.
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After 40 years as a card-carrying Republican, I’ve decided to vote for Obama. I am a fiscal conservative and a social moderate. The party has taken a wrong turn, toward divisiveness and incompetence and fiscal irresponsibility.
Under the current leadership, the size of the federal government has increased and the national debt has doubled. In addition to budget deficits we have off-book spending to finance the war. They’re trying to demonize Obama as tax-and-spend, but borrow-and-spend is even worse in my book.
I think it is pretty clear that total deregulation has failed in every case. The free market system is an appealing ideal, but it has led to unchecked greed and has ruined the economy.
I strongly supported the war in Afghanistan. Going after Bin-Laden in his cave is the right thing to do. Invading Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 or Al-Qaida. Those with dissenting opinions were ignored and smeared. (e.g. Valerie Plame)
To me, true conservatism means less government intervention in our lives. The Republican Party is toward ever more intervention, from wiretaps to Terry Schaivo. Many of these are hot-button issues meant to capture single issue voters. This has led to winning elections but the abandonment of true conservative values.
There is no evidence that trickle-down economics and tax cuts for the wealthy have created jobs or helped grow the economy. On the contrary, history shows little correlation between tax rates and job creation. Under current party leadership, the middle class has jobs and experienced a decline in real income.
John McCain continues to advocate tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation, and an indefinite continuation of the war in Iraq. I think we have pretty clear evidence that those policies are wrong. It’s definitely not working for me. I’m voting for Obama
George W. Bush made promises to fundamentalists before the 2004 election, such as passing a Constitutional amendment against gay marriage.
But after the election, he didn’t make an effort to get such an amendment passed.