Per the new DKos Research 2000 poll:

Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 47

Early voters (17 percent of sample)

McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 54

If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Janet Napolitano the Democrat and John McCain the Republican?

McCain (R) 45
Napolitano (D) 53

Obama goes on the air with "Something" ad in Arizona today (YouTube above), likewise MoveOn’s "Obamacan" ad.

No wonder McCain is forced to campaign in Arizona today.   Too bad for him.