Let’s assume that Stevens will also suffer a decline in his net approval score of 18 points. Since he’s at roughly 50/50 now, that would put him in the range of 40 percent approve, 60 percent disapprove. Our regression model uses approval ratings for incumbent senators as one of its inputs, and thinks a decline of this magnitude would cost a senator about 6 points in the polls … actually, 5.8 points. So what we’re going to do is apply a 5.8 point penalty to Stevens’ numbers in Alaska. Since the race was a toss-up before, this puts him about 6 points behind overall, making Mark Begich an 87 percent favorite to take his seat. That seems conservative to me, frankly, given that even the guys at RedState are abandoning Stevens, but it’s what we’ll run with until there’s some polling out.
Yesterday when I heard the Stevens verdict, I let out a "whoop!" But if he is indeed Baked Alaska, that’s one vote closer to…gulp…Lieberman being 60.
Please, by all that is holy, do not let that happen. Fifty-seven, sixty-one, but not sixty.
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It is inevitable that Lieberman–or lover guy– be #60. But it is likely that a Republican will defect. Wouldn’t you?
Will 59-40 make Lieberman a kingmaker?
Lieberman should be recalled like Gray Davis. Why do his constituents continue to put up with him?
blegh ! That’s all smarmy face needs – to have all that power would make him worse than he already is.
Thanks Jane.
digg
Yeah, all 59 would have to line up to kiss his shiny butt. Pretty safe bet even that wouldn’t get him to vote with the Dems on anything related to “national security.”
A 60 seat filibuster proof majority (with or without Lieberman) assumes all the Dems would march in lockstep. I’d be more comfortable with a few more but I’m certain that’s too much to hope for.
Would be a tough decision. Of course there’s nothing magic about 60 seats- you can still only stop a filibuster if every dem votes with you—usually that doesn’t happen- there are stragglers.
The balancing issue is discipline- if dems can’t round up their flock- they won’t have much power anyway- and if they don’t discipline Lieberweasel, they would seem to have thrown in the towel.
There’s usually a straggler or two on the other side too which might balance things out.
“…round up their flock…”
Harry? Nancy? We’re looking directly at you two.
True
Dems should court the endangered species moderate goopers. There are a few who should change parties.
Mike Lux at Open Left:
60 is symbolic but over-rated. Blue Dogs like Landrieu and Nelson (Nebraska), not to mention DiFi Inc. (DFNK on the NYSE), can’t be counted on. Perish the thought that Lieberman retain any relevance!
As a US Senator, recall is not an option, even if Connecticut had a recall provision in their state constitution, which they do not.
Once elected and seated, Senators and Representatives are there until either voted out by their constituents or they commit a crime and are expelled by their colleagues.
Who is the R senator from Oregon that is essentially trying to run as a Democrat? Or are we counting that as a seat the Ds will win?
Lieberweasel..tee-hee. I can see him now, a weasel with LIEberman’s head on it..poor weasel.
and upvote on reddit
What’s going to happen is that the Right has resigned itself to losing the Presidency to Obama – they hate McCain anyway, and this will give them at least four years of a Democratic president to blame for the next twenty years of America’s woes.
Instead they are going to focus their vote-rigging efforts to ensuring that they maintain the ability to filibuster. From the sanctimony of the “up-er-down” vote, they will continue to obstruct Congress for the next four years, and then blame Obama for the ongoing national stagnation. This year look for Congressional elections rather than the presidential race for signs of election fraud.
Visit http://www.stealingamericathemovie.org for a free 90-minute documentary describing how elections from 1996-2006 have been stolen using electronic voting machines. John Morris of the Institute for Local Self-Reliance calls it “remarkable and chilling.”
I am not affiliated with this movie, I just want people to see it.
It’s really difficult to get people to switch sides, even though the GOP has treated moderate Republicans like second class citizens. In addition to making a lot of enemies inside the Beltway, they have to factor in how much the move will piss off folks back home who voted for them. It might diminish the odds of getting reelected.
Gordon Smith and per this Oxdown diary from cbl2 this morning, he is down 7 points to challenger Jeff Merkley.
Does criminally stoopid count as a crime? Oh well.
This needs to be a very different sort of congress from the one the dems barely control at the moment. The point of this congress was to stop the worst of the Bush proposals and create the ground work for a true working majority in 09….
The goal of the next congress will be to enact landmark legislation that saves the economy, cuts use of fossil fuels, creates a comprehensive health care solution, and helps to stabilize world tensions.
The new congress will require very different control from the majority leaders—they will need to start using the stick as well as the carrot and make crucial votes “career issues” for those dem congresscritters who are looking to slide away.
They can’t go to the well too often- but when they say “career vote coming” they damned well better be able to get the attention of every dem.
any update on the Ditch Mitch effort? I really have my fingers crossed for that one. pretty please.
True-but a gooper senator from a blue state like Pennsylvania may well be able to win a dem primary if they have enough lead time to build a dem track record.
If that happens I’m really gonna fucking hate Connecticut.
When the Dems were the minority party they caved at every opportunity, whereas when they became the majority party they… caved at every opportunity. Don’t expect Pelosi or Reid to change much. How well the Obama Administration interacts with the legislative branch will be crucial.
Heh, maybe McCain will switch sides when this is all over.
BTW, here’s an ignorant question: what happens to Obama’s seat should he win?
I had this thought elsewhere but I’m still mulling it.
Assume McCain loses, and loses convincingly. He’d be humiliated and probably most upset with the right wing, blaming them for losing him the election. He will (most probably) want to get his reputation back as a maverick and independent. He will want to be seen as the guy who reaches across the aisle. For many reasons, I think it’s more likely McCain will vote to scotch right-wing filibusters rather than support them.
If McCain becomes a no-filibuster kind of guy, what does that do to his good friend Leiberman, who is also anxious to be liked again. Leiberman follows McCain in that instance, supporting his friend and being one of the “centrists” — also voting against filibusters.
And I don’t know that you can count Arlen Specter as an automatic filibuster supporter. He’ll vote party sometimes, but he won’t have Bush and Cheney calling him up to yell at him anymore.
There are a lot of reasons that we may not see a filibuster-happy Senate.
Ted Stevens endorses Palin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v….._1027.html
Mitch is leading but within the margin of error.
But don’t count on Lunsford to be anything more than a right wing member of the Republican wing of the Democratic Party
Illinois has a Democratic governor, if he isn’t indicted by then (kidding, he’s crooked but not in imminent jeopardy). Presumably, he would pick a Dem replacement.
Assuming the Governor has not been forced from office, Governor Blagojovich (sp?), D would appoint a replacement.
Sixty Democratic Senators won’t vote in lockstep on all the major issues, so I think it’s a moot point. Besides, the majority Democrats need to stop caving in whenever the minority threatens to block a cloture vote. Force the old farts to stand up and filibuster!
What is the nuclear option?
From Wikipedia:
This is why the Allen campaign is so disappointing. If there were anyone in the Senate who might have been amenable to switching parties, it would have been Olympia Snowe, had she just watched her colleague lose in Maine. That (with a Shays defeat) would have left her as the only GOP member of any congressional delegation from New England.
But if Collins wins (as seems likely), it would be hard for Snowe to make the case that her constituents really would prefer to see her caucus as a Democrat.
An Allen victory might have been a two-for-one special. Sigh.
Nuclear Option per wiki
Oh, yes. Please filibuster health care for everyone, extension of unemployment benefits for Bush’s new poor, etc. Bring it on.
That’s two sodas you owe me but I’m not counting.:)
I live in Connecticut but I’m not his constituent. Unfortunately we don’t have a recall procedure. Hopefully he’ll get caught playing footsie with an undercover cop in some men’s room.
I don’t know about that.
If Obama gets swept in and shows long coat tails, that might force those Senators who are staring 2010 in the face to toe the line.
That might be good for the one or two votes needed right there.
Agreed, but I also think it would be tougher for Blue Dog Dems to vote with a Republican filibuster than it would be to simply vote for or against a particular piece of legislation.
I think 60 would give us more leverage, but of course it doesn’t give us omnipotence.
Won’t happen, he only ventures from McCain’s butt-crack long enough to spew talking points on TV.
Thanks…
Doesn’t that count as some kind of sodomy? Is sodomy illegal in Connecticut?
Since 2006 the Dem leadership has invented a new word, “omn-im-potence.”
thanks, sigh.
Joe the plumber has butt crack envy?
not that there is anything wrong with it
Nah, I think only Bible-belt states still have those antiquated laws on the books. Anyway, with Joe it’s more of a security, rather than a sexual thing. That and something akin to sibling rivalry with fellow McCain butt gerbil Lindsey.
Hey breaking news
Palin calling on Stevens to resign…bwahahahaa!
that’s quite the lunch table. gag.
The rats are leaving fast now.
Having trouble finding a link but I read earlier that in addition to officially endorsing McCain, Plumber Joe is is actually out campaigning as a surrogate. One of the first things he did was agree with an audience member who stated that electing Obama would result in the destruction of Israel. McCain sure knows how to pick ‘em.
OT
Charles Barkley is running for governor of Alabama. Now for this I intend to buy stock in popcorn.
Barkley used to be a self-described Republican. He’d probably have to be to have a chance in Alabama, where McCain currently has a 27 point lead over Obama.
FYI, I think everyone has wandered upstairs.
CNN had a transcript up earlier with a Barkley interview. He admits to having been an R but switched to Dem early this century as the Rs had gone ot insane for him.
It was actually a thoughtful interview.
He’s a bright guy, although I’m always skeptical of celebs turned politicians.
Here’s the transcript. As I say, thoughtful. And he has always talked about running for Gov from Alabama.
Some of the athletes turned politicians have actually been intelligent and competent.
Thanks for the link. It would have been more accurate to say I’m always skeptical of politicians. In the event that a good candidate comes along, I’m not too concerned about what his previous career was.
Bill Bradley, for one.
Let it be 59. Throw Joe overboard. if 58 with Joe as 59 is good enough, then 59 without Joe is good enough.